2009年1月8日 星期四

[MiLB]Jesus Montero

[心得]
Jesus Montero ? 有那麼強嗎?

[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://mvn.com/thebronxblock/2009/01/08/montero-ranked-5-prospect-in-baseball.html

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[文章]

I was flipping around Pinstripes Plus on the Scout.com network today, searching for interesting Yankee stories and was shocked to see the Scout.com prospect rankings. Jesus Montero is the fifth ranked prospect in all of baseball! This is, by far, the highest I've seen a Yankee ranked by a major publication this year.

I'm a little surprised, considering that Jesus has yet to tackle high-A ball, but the Venezuelan backstop absolutely destroyed low-A last year, to the tune of .326 .376 .491 .867 with 17hrs and 87 rbi. This from an 18-year-old kid who was underage for his league. For an 18-year-old to hit 17 hrs in full season A is very unusual and the Baseball Cube ranks him as an absurd 76 on the 80 point scouting scale for power.

Montero is ranked only behind uber prospects, Mat Wieters, David Price, and Rick Porcello. Fellow A ball slugger, Jason Heyward was also ranked ahead of Montero, at 4th. Although Jesus put up slightly better numbers than Heyward in the same league, most pundits favor the Atlanta organzation's outfielder because of his athleticism and greater projectibility.

The one big issue with Jesus is his size and projectibility as a catcher. Because he's so big (6'4", 225 lbs) at such a youn age, many wonder whether he'll be able to stay behind the plate. He and fellow prospect Austin Romine are both extremely raw behind the plate.

[Ericsson]HTC將棄Qualcomm?

[心得]
EMP是敝公司旗下跟NXP合資的子公司
子公司有錢賺 ... Cheers!

[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://www.pocketpc.com.hk/news.php?id=1790

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[文章]

HTC旗下的機款一向都使用Qualcomm的晶片作核心,不過最近Qualcomm官司纏身加上晶片產品問題多多,所以消息指HTC將會放棄Qualcomm了。根據電子時報的報導,HTC在2009年將會推出約10部新機,和以往不同,這些新機並不全是使用Qualcomm晶片,而新引入EMP(Ericsson’s Mobile Platform)作核心。

EMP系列中擁有現在世上最細小的三頻3.5G晶片組,所以用它作為核心所開發的新機款有望變得更薄更細小。當然Qualcomm也在積極改善旗下的晶片(至少在驅動程式上有下功夫),不過Qualcomm的損失也令到它在2007和2008年的進帳受到很大的打擊就是。無論如何,今次HTC的選擇也會為2009年帶來更多的新款好機,這是我們一眾消費者所樂意見到的。

[Finance]全球市場2009年仍將艱難行進

[心得]
悲觀的未來

[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://chinese.wsj.com/big5/20090106/fea104430.asp?source=rss

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[文章]

過了五年的上漲之後﹐全球股市2008年大幅下挫﹐令投資者無處藏身。

金融風暴打擊了全球所有主要市場﹐投資者紛紛從他們曾經熱衷的市場撤出﹐規避股票的下跌﹐尋找安全的港灣。以美元計算﹐不包括美國在內的道瓊斯全球指數下跌了近一半﹐跌幅為46%。

包括德國、法國和澳大利亞在內的多個基準指數都下跌了40%以上。日本日經225指數下跌42.1%﹐為其有史以來的最差表現。


John Kuczala
曾經大幅上揚的市場﹐尤其是那些依賴大宗商品出口的市場受到的打擊更大。中國和俄羅斯的主要股指今年的跌幅都超過了60%。中國的上證綜合指數創出了18年來的最差表現。

投資者中曾經盛行一種觀點:具有良好經濟基本面的國家其股市可以躲開美國的麻煩﹐創出不俗表現。但現在﹐全球範圍的暴跌讓這一說法就此終結。相反﹐它表明在面臨巨大動盪的時期﹐全球股市將遭受同樣的命運。

而且﹐隨著危機加深﹐有一點也變得很清楚﹐那就是沒有哪個經濟體能獨善其身。國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)認為﹐發達國家將步入它們戰後所經歷過的最嚴重的下滑。儘管新興經濟體2009年有望實現5%的經濟增幅﹐但這個數字將比2007年足足低3個百分點﹐並且遠低於近期趨勢。

具有諷刺意味的是﹐雖然美國是這場金融危機的風暴中心﹐但美國投資者如果將資金留在國內市場﹐則業績反而更好。道瓊斯工業股票平均價格指數33.8%的跌幅還屬於相對溫和的水平。美元也打破了其長時間以來的下跌軌跡﹐2008年較一攬子各種貨幣的匯率上漲了8.6%。美元的走強削弱了海外股票的價值﹐因為它們轉換成美元後的價值比以前要低。

展望未來﹐很難找到樂觀的理由。好消息是全球股市2008年極度糟糕的表現不大可能再重演﹐但未來道路上經濟方面仍將有很多痛苦﹐企業盈利預測被一砍再砍

匯豐(HSBC)駐倫敦的證券策略部全球主管凱文•賈丁(Kevin Gardine)最近在一份報告中說﹐美國這個火車頭已經切切實實地轉向了倒退﹐並將擠壓世界其他地區的增長預期。分析師們都在“為盈利尋找一個看似合理的底部﹐但要在進入2009年後相當一段時間才有可能找到。”

Photo Illustration by John Kuczala
匯豐預計今年歐美企業盈利有可能下降25%﹐日本企業下降15%﹐不包含日本在內的亞洲企業下降20%。

許多經理人預測市場將出現更大波動﹐身手敏捷的人有可能得到回報。“最起碼到某個時候﹐我們將看到熊市中的一波大反彈﹐並且﹐新興市場和大宗商品將引領這波行情﹐”ING投資管理公司(ING Investment Management)駐紐約高級投資組合經理蘭德斯曼(Uri Landesman)說。不過他又說﹐總體而言﹐2009年人們不會比2008年睡得更踏實。

2008年﹐恐慌性和被動性拋盤在全球市場到處可見﹐10月底更是達到了高潮。許多市場動盪不定﹐跌跌撞撞中幾近失控。在俄羅斯﹐官員們試圖遏制市場潰敗﹐市場交易多次因此中止。僅在10月份的連續兩個星期時間里﹐俄羅斯RTS指數就跌去35%。

俄羅斯經歷了金融市場上的一場“完美風暴”:8月份﹐就在全球金融危機進入最劇烈階段、該國主要出口產品石油的價格大幅跳水的時候﹐它與格魯吉亞的政治沖突讓投資者驚恐萬狀﹐導致資本紛紛出逃。

隨之而來的混亂暴露了俄羅斯銀行系統的缺陷﹐促使政府實施一項大規模救助計劃。為遏制盧布匯率的快速下滑﹐俄羅斯動用了將近四分之一的外匯儲備。去年8月的時候﹐俄羅斯外匯儲備最高時接近6,000億美元。

全球股市災難性的一年還沖擊到規模較小的所謂前趨市場。這類市場普通投資者一般不會注意到﹐過去﹐它們被渲染為實現投資多樣化、在一定程度上可躲避全球性風暴的有效手段。但在這場颶風之下它們同樣難逃厄運:以美元計算﹐跟蹤尼日利亞、科威特、保加利亞等地的MSCI前趨市場指數2008年下跌了55.4%。

涵蓋印度、巴西等長期投資目的地的MSCI新興市場指數全年跌幅為54.5%。

Joanna Slater

2009年1月4日 星期日

[Health]小中風

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://www.cw.com.tw/article/index.jsp?id=36535

http://www.cw.com.tw/article/index.jsp?id=34145

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小中風的五大症狀?

美國中風協會將小中風和腦中風的症狀分為五大項:

1、手腳或臉部突然發麻或無力,尤其是身體的單側;
2、突然感到困惑,口齒不清,或聽不懂別人的話;
3、單眼或雙眼視力突然模糊;
4、突然舉步困難,覺得昏眩,失去平衡或協調;
5、突然不明原因的頭痛欲裂。




xxxx



當心隱形的「小中風」

作者:謝明玲  出處:天下雜誌 392期 2008/03

相關關鍵字:小中風

你曾發生只有短暫幾分鐘或幾小時,半邊手腳或臉突然沒力、麻木後又恢復的狀況嗎?當心「小中風」已悄悄找上你。


一天早上,陳姓台商從上海的家中醒來,卻赫然發現鏡中自己臉不受控制地斜了一邊。

他立刻打電話安排回台灣。上午九點搭上飛機;下午三點兒子在桃園機場接他的時候,臉還是歪的;但等到他見了醫師,距離上機不到十二個小時,臉已經恢復正常。

驚魂未定的他做了影像檢查,發現儘管症狀消除了,腦血管的堵塞還是存在。

暫時性腦缺血發作是身體瀕臨危險的警訊。長庚醫學院神經內科教授陳獻宗表示,曾發生短暫中風症狀的病人,再發生中風的機率比一般人高四到五倍。

「它可能是將發生較嚴重腦中風的先兆,」台北榮總神經血管科主治醫師陳昌明說。

陳昌明解釋,過去把這樣短暫發生的神經障礙稱為「暫時性腦缺血」,但這樣的說法已經被推翻。這類的患者,事實上有很多已經在腦部發生了「永久性」的傷害,雖然範圍可能很小,因而功能很快地被周圍的健康細胞取代,而恢復正常功能運作,但危險還是存在。有的醫師會用「小中風」一詞來提醒民眾。

「小中風就是中風,」台大醫院神經部主治醫師鄭建興也說,「要當作一般急性中風處理。」暫時性腦缺血的典型症狀如下:

半邊的手腳或臉突然沒力、或者麻木、感覺異常。陳獻宗表示,「半邊發作」是腦中風的典型,如果是四肢都無力,則可能還有其他的可能:如肝功能失調、感冒等。

語言溝通功能突然喪失。如話突然講不清楚、大舌頭、失語;或者突然聽不懂別人的話。

失去平衡。例如走路傾向一邊;看起來身體肌肉是有力量的,但動作卻不聽使喚擺向一邊。

單眼視力模糊、眩暈與雙重影像。若是單眼突然看不見東西、或者眩暈伴隨著複視(一個東西看到兩個影子),都有可能是中風的症狀。

暫時性腦缺血症狀的發生到緩解,從幾分鐘到一天都有可能。但鄭建興表示,這些症狀的特徵是:沒有徵兆的突然發生,而且是局部的神經症狀。

他建議,不論發生的時間多短、之後是否緩解,都最好能盡速急診,接受檢查治療,找出危險因子,跟著改變生活形態,降低之後再中風的機率。

陳昌明舉去年發表於英國醫學期刊《刺胳針》(Lancet)的論文表示,在發生暫時性腦缺血後,三個月內再度中風者,儘速就醫者比延遲接受治療者,減少了八成的中風再發率。

非傳統的中風危險因子

除了暫時性腦缺血可能是嚴重中風的先兆,也有醫學研究非典型的危險因子。

過去中風的高危險因子是高血壓、高血脂和高血糖的三高患者、有菸酒習慣、有心臟病、糖尿病的人等。

而二月底發表於紐奧良「國際中風大會」(International Stroke Conference)的報告卻發現,日間的過度嗜睡和中風的機率有關。研究發現,日間嚴重無法控制地陷入昏睡的人,比日間不打瞌睡的人,中風比例要高四.五倍


陳獻宗表示,目前這樣的說法有理論基礎的,僅限於「睡眠呼吸中止症」的病人。這類人睡覺時容易呼吸不順暢,造成血氧濃度降低,發生缺氧。

如果只是白天嗜睡,則是夜間睡眠品質不佳的表徵而已,而非直接因果關係。「嗜睡本身不見得是腦中風的危險因素,」他澄清說。

另外,二○○七年發表於《美國醫學會期刊》的研究則連續追蹤兩萬七千多名四十五歲以上的女性長達十年,發現有預兆性偏頭痛的人(在頭痛前,有一些特別且可恢復的神經症狀,如視覺障礙、肢體無力或口齒不清等),發生中風的風險,是常人的一.九倍。但陳獻宗解釋,這樣的預兆性偏頭痛很少發生,且需要經過嚴格的診斷;如果真的中風,更必須要排除其他因素的影響。他認為,目前不能說偏頭痛就是中風的前兆或危險因子,有偏頭痛的民眾也不用過度緊張。

其他例如久不治癒的牙周病,或者嚴重上呼吸道感染造成血管內壁的破壞,或者遺傳性同半胱胺酸代謝不正常,容易侵蝕血管管壁等,造成中風等說法,也都在研究中。但醫師都表示,這些例子不常見,而且許多還有爭議性,無法判斷為中風的直接危險因子,民眾不需過度恐慌。




MLB_DeRosa Trade Opens Door for Fontenot

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://www.behindtheplatefantasy.com/2009/01/derosa-trade-opens-door-for-fontenot.html

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Fontenot has played two seasons with the Cubs now and has been very impressive when given the opportunity to play. Fontenot was awesome in limited playing time in '08. In only 243 AB Fontenot hit .305 with 42 R, 9 HR, and 40 RBI. He also came up with a lot of big hits in crucial situations for the Cubs.

Fontenot also had some tremendous peripheral stats. He had a very good BB% of 12.3% and a SLG of .514. He also had a BABIP of .355. Fontenot sprays line drives all over the field. His LD% in '08 was a solid 24%.

He may be a little guy but he packs a lot of punch in his bat. He also has some good speed. He only stole two bases last year but if he's given the opportunity to play everyday he should be in double digits. He's also an above average fielder and shouldn't lose playing time because of his defense.

Fontenot is going to be a big time sleeper heading into '09. Mark my words. He will be a solid option late in drafts for a thin MI position. The Cubs also recently signed Aaron Miles but I don't believe that he will be the everyday second baseman. The Cubs will be losing a lot of run production by trading DeRosa and while Fontenot will not be able to make up all of that, he can help much more in that area than Miles. Also, Fontenot has become a favorite of Lou Pinella's and I don't see any way that Miles gets the starting job over him.

Mike Fontenot has been way off the fantasy radar and probably still is. I may be letting the cat out of the bag but pencil him in as a top infield sleeper heading into 2009.


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Guest Comment
One thing I would be wary of with Fontenot, or I guess possibly two things stemming from one issue, is that he almost never hit against lefties. That would probably mean if he starts every day, his overall numbers will suffer a bit from the platoon split being factored in. The more dangerous problem would be if Pinella continues to sit him against lefties and give the switch-hitting Miles those starts. Miles got quite a bit of playing time over the superior Adam Kennedy in St. Louis (Miles had a better offensive year with the help of an unrealistically high BA, but not enough to make up the difference in the field), especially against lefties, and the Cubs liked him enough to give him a 2 year deal, so I wouldn't be surprised if he got a lot of those starts against lefties.

There is no reason Miles should be taking any starts from Fontenot on a regular basis, but he has gotten way too much playing time before, the Cubs just paid way too much to get him, and Pinella has always been reluctant to play Fontenot against lefties (granted, he had better options than Miles to use instead). It's at least enough to set off some caution flags to me.

Kincaid - Do you mean Fontenot almost never PLAYED against lefties? Because that would be true. But in a limited number of at bats (22) he did have nearly a .900 ops against lefties.

I've seen enough of him to think he could
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easily hold his own as an every day player. The fact they went out and got Miles makes me believe Miles will get a lot of playing time. More then he deserves. The Cubs ALWAYS find a way to stunt a players development and that is exactly what they are doing with Fontenot. They say they want to get more left handed, yet they don't give guys like him a fair chance. Just watch, they'll do it again.


Both of you guys make great points. The thing is Fontenot is the superior player. It won't take long for Pinella to realize this. Miles will get some PT but Fontenot will get the bulk of the starts. It doesn't matter to Pinella how much Jim Hendry paid a player. If he has a better option he's going to go with it. i.e. Fukudome.

Personal_虛擬紐約

[心得]
在這裡生活了兩年半
有空連過去瞧瞧 回味回味 :P

[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://chinese.engadget.com/2009/01/03/virtual-new-york/
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一段時間沒用 Google Earth,沒想到曼哈頓已經變成這副德性了 @@。除了極少數建築(據目測應該少於 5%)還是以前的白方塊之外,其他絕大部份建築都已經變成真實的 3D 模型了。不能去 NY 跨年,看看這個過過乾癮也不錯啦 XD

MiLB_Dayan Viciendo

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=1374
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Prospect Quickie: Dayan Viciendo

It would seem unlikely that a 19-year old Cuban defector could push Josh Fields and Wilson Betemit to the bench, claiming the 3B job for himself, but with the Chicago White Sox never say never. They tend to be a little unconventional, and after signing Dayan Viciedo to a 4-year, $11 million contract (including a $4 million signing bonus), anything is really possible.

They were in a similar situation with Alexei Ramirez at this time last season, though he was significantly older when he joined the club (27-years old). It took Ramirez a little bit of time to settle in, as well as find a position, but at this point we all know how he emerged down the stretch and became one of the Top 10 2B for fantasy owners.

Is a similar fate in store for Viciedo? Given his age, I could see the White Sox being a bit more cautious with him. Still, he projects to hit for a lot of power, succeeding at such a young age in the Cuban League. At 16-years old he hit 14 HR and hit a total of 32 HR over 233 games the past three seasons. I know that doesn’t seem like much, but keep in mind that he’s playing against players significantly older then he, including those who play for the countries national team.

He’s currently listed at 6′0″, 225 lbs. by mlb.com, but I’m not really sure how accurate that number is. CBS has him slotted at 6′1″, 210 lbs., which matches ESPN’s listing. Either way, we can project him out as a potentially 30+ HR power source within the next few seasons.

Is he going to reach that potential this season? No chance, as he’s likely to start the season at Triple A, especially given the other two players the team has to fill the spot in the short-term. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him get a chance at some point, probably around the All-Star Break. While he’s not going to live up to his full potential quite yet, that doesn’t mean we should avoid him.

If you are in a long-term keeper league, stash him away immediately. Otherwise, just keep an eye on him and see how things play out in Chicago. When he gets his chance to play, he should be a useful short-term fill-in, at worst.