[Finance]克魯曼專欄》新巫毒經濟登場 小心

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://www.wretch.cc/blog/chunkaiw/17954263
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【聯合報╱作者Paul Krugman是紐約時報專欄作家／夏嘉玲譯】 2009.01.20 03:49 am

相信減稅有奇效的巫毒經濟學已褪流行，且被排除在文明論述之外。供給面學說的狂熱信徒只剩怪胎、假內行和共和黨人。 但近來新聞報導顯示許多動見觀瞻的人，包括聯邦準備理事會官員、金管官員，即將上任的歐巴馬政府官員可能也在內，已成為一種新巫毒的忠實信徒，相信舉行複雜的金融儀式，就能讓已經不行的行庫起死回生。 要解釋這碼事，我來說說一家虛構銀行的處境，我稱為「高譚集團」或簡稱高譚（按：Gotham是英格蘭傳說和童話中的愚人村） 。 帳面上，高譚有2兆美元資產和1.9兆美元負債，它的淨值是1000 億美元。但它的資產有很大部分，比如說房貸抵押債券和其他毒資產值4000億美元，假使這家銀行設法出售這些資產，可能賣不了2000 億美元。 所以高譚是家「僵屍銀行」，仍在營運，但實質上已破產。它的股票並非完全一文不值，它市值還有200億美元，但全然建立在政府會紓困解救其股東的希望上。 為何政府要對高譚紓困？因為它是金融體系的核心要角。各界任由雷曼公司倒閉後，金融市場凍結，有好幾星期全球經濟在崩垮邊緣搖搖欲墜。由於我們不希望舊事重演，因此高譚一定得繼續發揮作用。但怎樣才能讓它繼續發揮作用？ 這個嘛，政府可以給高譚幾千億美元，就足以恢復其償付能力。但這當然是給高譚現在的股東送大禮，也等於鼓勵他們日後拚命不顧風險。即使如此，這分大禮的可能性讓高譚現在的股價獲得支撐。 比較好的方法是拿出政府在1980年代末期處理僵屍存款、貸款的方法：接管已無生意的銀行，解散股東。接下來政府把銀行壞帳轉移給特殊機構「資產清理信託公司」，政府清償足夠的銀行債務，讓銀行有償付能力，再把整頓過的銀行賣給新的所有人。 然而目前各方意見顯示，這兩種方式政策制定者都無意採用。據報導，他們傾向妥協，即把毒資產從民營行庫的資產負債表移到類似資產清理信託公司的公有「壞帳行庫」或「整合銀行」，但不先接管銀行。 美國聯邦存款保險公司董事長拜爾女士最近嘗試說明這種方法如何發揮功效：「整合銀行會以合理價格買下資產。」但何謂「合理價格」？ 就我舉的例子，高譚集團沒有償付能力，因為其帳面上的4000億美元毒資產實際只值2000億美元。政府買下毒資產使高譚恢復償付能力的唯一途徑是支付比私人買家願意出的價高得多。 現在也許私人買家不願支付有毒資產的實際價值：拜爾女士說：「我們目前尚未就某些這類資產種類訂定合理價格。」但政府該聲稱比市場更清楚毒資產值多少錢嗎？還有，真的可能付「合理價格」（不管這是什麼意思）就足以讓高譚恢復償付能力嗎？ 我懷疑可能政策制定者正準備試圖放長線釣大魚：政策看似清理了存款和貸款，但實際上無異犧牲納稅人而送給銀行股東大禮，還裝做以「合理價格」購買毒資產。 為什麼要如此拐彎抹角？答案似乎是華府仍對「國有化」這個字怕的要命。實情是，高譚集團和其同類機構已由國家監護，完全仰賴納稅人支撐，卻沒有人願意承認這個事實並施行明顯的解決方案：儘管暫時卻是明確的政府接管。因此，如同我所說，大行其道的新巫毒宣稱複雜的金融儀式可讓死氣沉沉的銀行回春。 不幸的是，耽溺迷信的代價可能很高。希望我這想法是錯的，但我懷疑納稅人又被坑了一次，我們將多了一項無法奏效的金融援助計畫。 （作者Paul Krugman是紐約時報專欄作家）

[MLB]Is Pie now worth the risk?

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=1512
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Is Pie now worth the risk?

Felix Pie has been discussed as a top OF prospect for the Chicago Cubs for the past few years. Back in 2004, Baseball America had him pegged as the team’s #2 prospect. In 2003 they had him ranked at #5. There was never any doubting his potential on the field, the question was if he could actually perform up to the hype.

He’s played parts of the past two seasons at the major league level, hitting just .223 over 260 AB. He’s had just 3 HR and 11 SB, a far cry from what everyone had hoped he would develop into, especially since he was expected to be the Cubs everyday CF last season. His struggles certainly forced the Cubs to push him further and further down the depth chart and when Milton Bradley and Joey Gathright signed on the dotted line, he became unnecessary for the team.

In stepped the Baltimore Orioles, who acquired Pie in exchange for Garrett Olsen. The move sets Pie up for what may be his final chance to prove he is an everyday player in the major leagues. Word is that the team will shift Luke Scott to the DH role, allowing Pie to play regularly in the OF.

Will the regular playing time make him worth looking at in deeper formats?

He’ll be 24-years old on Opening Day, so maybe he’ll really put things together, but even the minor league numbers do not fully justify the hype surrounding him. His career high in HR was 15 at Triple A back in 2006, though he did pair that with 33 doubles. Does that bring hope? Normally I’d say yes, but considering it came in the Pacific Coast League, I’m taking it with a grain of salt.

He has some speed, having stolen 32 bases at Single A in 2004, but he was also caught 16 times that season. That is obviously far from a stellar percentage and he has failed to reach 20 SB since then. Pair those two things together and it doesn’t offer much promise of us seeing him run wild in the major leagues.

What about the average? He’s hit well in the minors, consistently being over .280, even at the top levels. I wouldn’t expect the higher numbers (.362 in 229 AB at Triple A in ‘07) to translate to the majors. Not even close. He just hasn’t shown the ability to hit at the Major League level. Last season he had a .358 BABIP, yet managed to hit just .241. That was due to a K% of 34.9%, and while I’d expect that to come down, so will the BABIP. No, I wouldn’t go into the season looking at an average of more then .270.

So, we have an OF’er who is likely not to hit for much power…
Who isn’t likely to steal many bases…
Who may struggle with his average…

That seems like an awful lot of risk, doesn’t it? I can understand watching him, looking to see if maybe things finally do get put together, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. There are much better risks in the OF to take, unless you are in the deepest of keeper leagues. Monitor his progress early on in case he develops into a great waiver wire pick-up, but don’t get your hopes too high.

What do you think? Could Pie develop into a usable OF’er?

[MLB] Notes from Multiple Source

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
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Andrew Jones was released by the Dodgers today. Rumor has it that he will re-join the Braves, but nothing is official yet.

Zaun Agrees To Terms With Orioles

Orioles president Andy MacPhail said he expects Zaun to do the "lion's share of the catching" at first, even with top prospect Matt Wieters around.

Tigers Interested In Isringhausen, Lyon

Michael Young Agrees To Play Third

[Life] 面對考驗?

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
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From Ted's Blog

熱力不足，不只是在職場工作，一直停在思考的階段，明明有很多事情要連絡，卻一直 pending，這也是自我要學習的。


少了愛，做起事來就不像沖飽的電池，能量源源不絕；
少了 愛，會觀望有沒有人與我同行？如果沒有同行的夥伴，也許 就考慮停下來了....；
少了愛，創意就只是想法，不會有實現的一天，遇到了阻擋，就歸因於『某某人說...怎樣怎樣』，一切的不順利就與自己無關 了...；
少了愛，就沒了『熱』，原來應該熱的場子，就顯得可有可無，反正『做好』跟『做完』結果都一樣(但是帶給人們的感覺，卻是截然不同的 ~ !!)

發現了嗎，原來我是少了愛的人，所以就少了熱力；

[Life]有道理的話 from 放過你自己

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
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過去的事

都已經過去了 再去挖 再去啃 再去鑽 都不會有結果

當然也不可能當作沒有發生過 因為時間不可能從來

每個人都有不完美的地方 因為我們是人

但如果你不願放下過去 死抓著不放硬要把過去的垃圾放到新的一天裡

那麼 永遠都不可能有新的一天 美好的開始

因為你早已經先幫明天作了氣象預報 明天就是會打雷下大雨加上強烈冷氣團

與其讓這些垃圾毀壞你的明天 新的每一天

那不如就勇敢站起來 走出這些灰燼

拒絕讓這些灰燼污染你的明天 不要再回頭看了

勇敢的站起來 你會發現 其實你只是在20公分高的水裡自己嚇自己

因為你值得的 不是這些 而是更多更豐盛美好的一切

學習曬太陽 讓自己脫離陰暗發霉的角落

你會發現 一切都開始不一樣 不一樣的氛圍製造出不一樣的生命

[Ericsson]今年科技開支 縮減3%

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://www.worldjournal.com/wj-tc-news.php?nt_seq_id=1833703

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[文章]

佛瑞斯特預計 明年就會回升9% 美元強勢助長下滑
【財經新聞組紐約報導】據佛瑞斯特研究公司（Forrester）最新報告顯示，2009年對於科技企業來說，是一個坎坷的年份。預計全球商業以及政府對於電腦、軟體以及通訊產品，還有資訊服務的開支將減少3%。

這也是科技行業經歷2001至2002連續2年科技開支縮減6%之後，首次出現全球性的市場下滑。不過佛瑞斯特並不認為本次下滑將持續相同時間，他們認為到2010年科技開支將回升9%。

在 經濟衰退之外，美元的強勢也是今年全行業下滑的動因之一。由於美元在2008年的弱勢，激發了科技行業在2008年的銷售增長，相反的，目前逐步走強的美 元，會減少今年的市場需求。在匯率變動中，歐洲的科技開支比率變化最為劇烈，以美元計價的話，歐洲的科技採購將在2009年下滑7%，但以歐元計價的採購 卻會增長1%。

他們預計以歐元報價的科技企業，包括歐科-朗訊（Alcatel-Lucent）、易利信（Ericsson）、SAP、諾基亞（Nokia）以及西門子（Siemens），將從弱勢歐元中受惠。

在全行業不景氣狀況下，佛瑞斯特也預測部分產品還會逆勢上揚。該公司副總裁表示，軟體採購會比其他的產品好一些，當然所有的供應商都會面臨嚴峻挑戰，情況會在2009年底或者2010年初，出現好轉。

該公司預計，軟體行業銷售將依舊維持在2008年的3880億元，電腦市場將下滑4%，降至4340億元，其中包括個人電腦，伺服器以及儲存設備等。

在 通訊產品市場，該公司預測，包括路由器、交換機以及通訊設備等，會下滑3%，降至3530億元。而資訊科技的服務以及外包市場，也會下降3%，降至 4840億元。佛瑞斯特認為，美元的強勢也不會維持多久，以後還會成為歐元強勢。預計到2010年，以美元計算的科技開支將回升9%。

[MLB]Skimming the Closer Pool: AL West

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://www.fantasypros911.com/skimming-the-closer-pool-al-west.html

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[文章]

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

• The Incumbent: Brian Fuentes

• Likelihood to hold job:

• How they did last year: 1-5, 2.73 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 30 SV, 82 K/22 BB
  
  Prior to last season, Fuentes stock could not have been any lower. A combination of injury and ineffectiveness forced Fuentes out of the job at the end of June, 2007. After blowing four straight saves that month, Fuentes was replaced by Manuel Corpas. Last season was a role reversal, in that Corpas struggled at the end of April and Fuentes retook the job. Fuentes had a 2.24 FIP and allowed a .317 BABIP, which suggest his numbers were as good as they appear and possibly even better. Fuentes only blew four saves in 34 chances last year, significantly improved from the seven in 27 chances in 2007.

• What to expect this year: Fuentes moves out of Coors Field and into the American League by signing with the Angels this month. Fuentes finds himself in a pretty good situation. Last year, a lot of Francisco Rodriguez critics said he was good but not great, and was more or less, in a great situation. Well, to a degree, they were right. Without analyzing K-Rod (next week we will look at the NL East), he played for a team that gave him 69 save chances, en route to setting the single-season saves record. Expect the same this year for Fuentes—a lot of opportunities. For one, the Angels play in a weak division, and they also do not blow teams out. Most of the Angels wins last year were tight, one or two run games—hence the 69 save opportunities. This year factor in an aging Vladimir Guerrero, minus Mark Teixeira and Garrett Anderson, and the Angels offense is arguably one of the worst in the AL. But they know how to win and again, this division is easily the worst in the American League. So Fuentes, who is coming off a bounce back season after a rough 2007, is in a good position this year. Fuentes is quickly moving up in mock drafts and closer rankings. It is conceivable to expect an ERA around 3.25 with 80 strikeouts and maybe for the first time in his career, 40 saves.

• In the ‘Pen: Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields
  
  Jose Arredondo: Once K-Rod signed elsewhere, Arredondo figured to be the top choice from within to take over as closer. But, going after, and signing, Fuentes showed that the Angels were not ready to hand Arredondo the keys to the car—just yet at least. A rookie last year, Arredondo was very impressive. He finished 10-2 with a 1.62 ERA and 55 strikeouts. In Anaheim, they typically stick with their closer through his struggles, so Fuentes should have some job security if he blows back-to-back saves. But, if he were to get hurt, Arredondo should get the ball in the ninth—unless Scioscia decides to share duties.
  
  Scot Shields: As consistent of a middle reliever you can find. In his eight seasons with the Angels, he has only twice posted an ERA over 3.00. Shields has picked up a handful of saves almost every season and has 20 total in his career.

Oakland Athletics

• The Incumbent: Brad Ziegler

• Likelihood to hold job:

• How they did last year: 3-0, 1.06 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 11 SV, 30 K/22 BB
  
  Ziegler began his career in record-setting fashion by tossing 39 1/3 scoreless innings. Ziegler uses a submarine delivery and deceptive angles to fool hitters, but does not have overpowering stuff. One of five Oakland pitchers to record a save, Ziegler finished the season as their main closer and converted 11 of 13 save opportunities. But, as good as he was, there was reason for concern. Ziegler had a below average 1.36 K/BB rate and a weak 4.53 K/9 rate. In addition, Ziegler’s best statistic was ERA, which might have been skewed considering the large disparity between his FIP and his actual ERA. Ziegler had a 3.72 FIP, which is nearly four times as much as his ERA. Red flag, anyone?

• What to expect this year: Ziegler is listed as the incumbent, because quite frankly, he finished last season as their ninth inning guy. However, Oakland manager Bob Geren has not committed to anyone yet. There is also the potential for the ultimate fantasy nightmare. And that’s shared duties, based on matchups. As aforementioned, Ziegler does not have overpowering stuff. Towards the end of the last year, hitters started figuring out his style, and his fastball was exposed for what it was—less than average. If Ziegler wins the job outright in Spring Training, it is hard to place much trust in him. He would be worth an end game pick, but Opening Day is a ways away, and there is a guy in the pen who has electric stuff.

• In the ‘Pen: Joey Devine, Santiago Casilla
  
  Joey Devine: If you weren’t sure who “that guy” was above, Devine has lights out stuff and can be downright unhittable at times. Devine posted a 0.59 ERA, which led the league and was an all-time low for a pitcher with at least 40 innings of work. Devine struck out 49 in 45 2/3 innings, good for a 9.66 K/9 rate. In the minors, Devine’s career K/9 was 13.18. He is an injury concern though, missing 54 games last year with a strained elbow—likely due to his sidearm motion. As long as he can stay healthy, Devine fits the bill for the closer makeup. Look for him to win the job out of Spring Training.
  
  Santiago Casilla: A heralded setup man last year, Casilla will most likely assume the same role this season. He struck out 43 in 50 1/3 innings with an ERA of 3.93. If Ziegler and Devine both get hurt, which is possible with their histories (Ziegler, head; Devine, elbow), Casilla has the potential to handle the duties.

Seattle Mariners

• The Incumbent: Tyler Walker

• Likelihood to hold job:

• How they did last year: 5-8, 4.56 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 0 SV, 49 K/21 BB
  
  This situation might be the worst in both leagues. The incumbent could have been filled with most of the candidates listed below in the ‘pen. If Oakland’s closer seat is hot, this one is red hot. Instead of talking about Walker last year, where he was not a closer, let’s skip down to this year for all of the candidates.

• What to expect this year: Walker has three months of experience as a closer back in 2005 with the Giants, and also a brief stint with the Rays in 2006. In total, he has 34 career saves. We might have to get Miss Cleo on the line to try and sort out this mess of a bullpen. At this point of the offseason, anyone can emerge as the leading contender and a closer-by-committee is certainly not out of the question. The best advice is to simply stay away.

• In the ‘Pen: Miguel Batista, Aaron Heilman, Mark Lowe, Roy Corcoran
  
  Miguel Batista: Batista leads the candidates with 38 career saves and picked up one last year as a Mariner. He went 4-14 with a putrid 6.26 ERA last year, primarily as a starter. This year the Mariners have no desire for Batista in the rotation, so he is one of the front-runners for the closer role. Batista saved 31 games for the Blue Jays in 2005.
  
  Aaron Heilman: Heilman would prefer to start, but he might not have a choice. He has nine career saves and some sources say he is actually the leading candidate. But after reading through several different opinions, it seems to vary by person. Heilman had a 5.45 BB/9 rate last season, a dreadful number for someone contending to be a team’s primary closer.
  
  Mark Lowe: Unlike Heilman, Lowe wants the job. Too bad he did so poorly during his chance last season. Despite managing to pie J.J. Putz in the face, Lowe recorded only one save in five chances during Putz’s absence. Prior to last year, Lowe was coming off arm surgery so it’s possible he was getting back into pitching form. In 2006, Lowe had a 1.93 ERA in 18 2/3 innings. As you can see, he is certainly capable.
  
  Roy Corcoran: Risky, but at this point, which one of the above guys isn’t? Corcoran saved three games during the team’s final month of the season. He actually had the best numbers last year out of the group with a 3.22 ERA. However, he does not have the quintessential closer makeup. He strikes out a very low rate (4.83 K/9, 1.08 K/BB in ’08) and has a lifetime WHIP of 1.53.

Again, the best thing to do is stay away from this disaster. Maybe in March or April, we will have a better idea on who to take in the end game.

Texas Rangers

• The Incumbent: Frank Francisco

• Likelihood to hold job:

• How they did last year: 3-5, 3.13 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 5 SV, 83 K/26 BB
  
  Francisco finally lived up to his potential last season. After years of talk, the only thing people remembered Francisco for was tossing a chair into the crowd and hitting an Athletics fan in the face (here, in case you forgot). Francisco finished strong with four straight saves in as many chances. Francisco’s strikeout numbers were through the roof across the board. He had career bests in total (83), K/9 (11.79), and K/BB (3.19).

• What to expect this year: Some people expect a lot, while others are not quite sold on Francisco yet. For Rangers fans, it’s easy to remember the confidence people had in C.J. Wilson heading into last season. Wilson saved 12 games and had a 3.03 ERA the year earlier, only to self-destruct on a weekly basis in the ninth inning last year. Francisco has a similar chance to do the same. A lot of Wilson’s problems last year had to do with putting people on base with free passes. Wilson had 5.24 BB/9 rate. In 2007, Francisco had a 5.76 BB/9, but improved to a rate of 3.69 last season. For him to be effective, he needs to control that powerful fastball the way he did last year. Expect Francisco to keep the job, but do it in Brian Wilson fashion—high numbers and a decent save total.

• In the ‘Pen: C.J. Wilson, Derrick Turnbow
  
  C.J. Wilson: Well, last season definitely did not go as planned. As said in the paragraph above, Wilson struggled with control. In fact, the last game he pitched in last year was a summary of his season. Wilson walked two, hit a batter, and then served up a grand slam to Richie Sexson of the Yankees. He had closer potential, but I think the confidence in him as a closer is gone.
  
  Derrick Turnbow: An interesting signing by the Rangers of late adds an arm to their bullpen. Another guy with control issues. Turnbow was effective in 2005 for the Brewers, saving 39 of 43 chances. But, lost his job the next year by blowing eight saves and an ERA of 6.87. It’s possible, actually very possible, that 2005 was an aberration. His lifetime numbers do not indicate he is the kind of pitcher he was in 2005 (1.74 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.67 K/BB). Turnbow might factor into their bullpen mix, but it would be a long shot for him to take this job at any point this season.

Who do you think wins the jobs in Oakland and Seattle? And do you think Frank Francisco, unlike predecessor C.J. Wilson, can last an entire season? Here is some food for thought; do you think it might be the ballpark in Arlington causing Rangers closers to struggle?