1. Johan Santana - See our top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball for Johan Santana’s projections.
2. Tim Lincecum - See our top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball for Tim Lincecum’s projections.
3. Jake Peavy - It’s insane that I even needed to write how Jake Peavy is a 2009 fantasy sleeper. If Peavy’s on the board in the 4th round, your job as a fantasy baseballer (<–my Mom’s term) is to draft him. Sabatahia’s not in front of Peavy. Lots of Sabathia’s value will be derived from Wins. Don’t bet on Wins. Ever. 2009 Projections: 15-6/2.95/1.10/205
4. CC Sabathia - Everyone and their mother’s mothers are ranking Sabathia high for 2009. Frankly, I don’t like to follow mother’s mothers. They’re slow and they’re always pinching cheeks. Let’s jump in our DeLorean for a second and look at last year. Santana, Peavy and Webb were the first three off the board. Sabathia’s ADP was 53. Now, Peavy and Webb fall a bit in ADP and Lincecum and Sabathia move up. Honestly, it’s six of one, half dozen of another here. If you see Peavy being undervalued for the new hip guy to draft — Sabathia, ignore CC and go Jake. Before last year, Sabathia’s ERA was never under 3.00 for a full season. I don’t think he’s going to be under 3 in 2009. Yes, Sabathia was the pitcher to have in 2008, that doesn’t mean he’s the one to have in 2009. So tell your chi to chill. 2009 Projections: 18-7/3.20/1.10/200
5. Cole Hamels - I’m a big fan of Hole Camels, maybe it’s my undying love for strikeout pitchers. But it’s that same love that has me slightly concerned. Hamels’s K/9 dropped a bit in 2008 for the 2nd year in the row. Maybe he’s trying to figure out how to give up less home runs (and it’s working if that’s true). Either way, he was still effective. That does not mean he’ll be on any of my teams in 2009. 2009 Projections: 16-9/3.30/1.10/195
6. Brandon Webb - This is a new tier. This tier goes down to Lackey. I call this tier, “Guys I’d be more than happy to have as my number one pitcher, but they’re not quite as good as the first five starters on this list.” As for Webb, I’m legitimately worried about him. So much of his value is derived from good Win karma. Some year he’s going to only win 15 games and you’re not going to enjoy owning Webb as much. 2009 Projections: 16-10/3.30/1.20/180
7. Dan Haren - Here’s the first pitcher on this list I have a legitimate shot at owning in leagues in 2009. Wins aside, guess who had more value in 2008, Haren or Webb? Obviously I’m asking the question because it’s Haren. He beat Webb in WHIP and Ks and practically tied him in ERA. I could easily see Webb barely in the top 20 at the end of the season and Haren in the top ten. Recognize! 2009 Projections: 16-7/3.40/1.15/195
8. Roy Halladay - Now we’re back to pitchers I probably won’t own. Halladay had his best K/9 since 2001. Frankly, this is distressing (as distressing as fantasy baseball can get). He left a lot more guys on base in 2008, too. This is extremely troublesome (as troublesome… well, you get it.). I wanted to drop Halladay down even further to warn people properly on Halladay, but, the thing is — and there’s always a thing, even if these metrics revert a bit, he’s still solid. 2009 Projections: 16-6/3.50/1.10/165
9. Roy Oswalt - I’ve been trying to get a read on what youse think about Oswalt. Are you believing he’s the ace, 12 to 6′er that he was when he was posting sub-3 ERA and 20 wins? Or do you know he’s now more of a pitcher than an overpowerer and he has to work a lot harder? I hope you’re in the latter camp. 2009 Projections: 15-9/3.75/1.15/150
10. Josh Beckett - If I were you, I’d look at this list and read my comments and think this, “Grey upgrades players coming off mediocre years and downgrades players coming off excellent years. And where the eff is Cliff Lee?!” That’s not a completely accurate assessment, and there’s no need to cuss. I ranked Lincecum high and he’s coming off a great year, but there should be much more weight put on 3-year averages than just this general, “What Have You Done For Me Lately?” Sure, I downgraded Halladay and boosted Peavy more than most ‘perts. Okay, I’m down on Sabathia and up on Beckett… Which brings me to your Red State Jeter, Josh Beckett. If you were disappointed by Beckett’s 2008, it’s understandable, but don’t hold it against him for 2009. 2009 Projections: 16-10/3.75/1.20/175
11. John Lackey - His men left on base in 2008 worries me a bit, but his low walks and K/BB ratio always tantalizes me. I really believe he’s going to win a AL Cy Young one of these years. That’s not faint praise. (”Hey, I really like the way you fell on that beanbag when you passed out.” That’s faint praise.) 2009 Projections: 16-11/3.60/1.22/175
12. James Shields - This is a new tier. This tier goes from here to Ervin Santana. I call this tier, “Guys who could conceivably be my number one pitcher.” Shields gets no love, taking 2nd billing to Kazmir in the majority of drafts. Guess who had better numbers last year? Again, it’s pretty obvious, because this is under Shields. In a year that Kazmir stayed relatively healthy, something he doesn’t normally do, Shields still outperformed him. Usually starters come into their own in the third year, in 2009 Shields will be in his third full year. As Minnie Pearl may have said, “Hee-haw!” 2009 Projections: 15-9/3.50/1.14/165
13. Chad Billingsley - It’s the Year of the B. I’ve changed my sock three times in the last hour, but I just can’t stop gushing about Billingsley. Some time last year, I predicted a NL Cy Young for Billingsley in 2009. Billingsley cut his BB/9, raised his K/9, lowered his home runs and he wasn’t particularly lucky… Oops, there goes another sock. 2009 Projections: 16-6/3.35/1.33/200
14. Ervin Santana - You can count on three fingers the guys on this list that could exceed their draft value. Ervin’s one of those guys. You guess the other two guys. 2009 Projections: 15-8/3.75/1.18/175
15. Scott Kazmir - This is a new tier. This tier goes from Kazmir to the end of the list. I call this tier, “Guys I don’t want at all, but others seem fine drafting them.” Kazmir is still too unreliable heath-wise for me to own him. 2009 Projections: 15-7/3.65/1.30/180
16. Rich Harden - The last time Harden got above twenty starts in a season he needed two years to recoup. Beane didn’t trade him because Harden doesn’t have the skills. He traded him because in the Major League stage production of Unbreakable, Harden’s Mr. Glass. 2009 Projections: 12-4/2.75/1.10/160
17. Daisuke Matsuzaka - Take three tablespoons of WHIP, a 1/4 cup of BABIP and a pinch of BB/9 and you get a guy whose ERA is going to rise and Wins are going to fall. Blech. Or as they say in Japan, “Goodbye Kitty.” 2009 Projections: 14-7/3.90/1.30/160
18. Cliff Lee - You win, Cliff Lee! You win! Are you happy? You made me put you in the top 18. Begrudgingly. You’re going to get burned by Cliff Lee in 2009. You, the one with the hair on your head that plans on drafting him. You will get burned. I prefer Jar-Jar Jurrjens, but I needed to rank Lee somewhere. So here he is. 2009 Projections: 15-10/3.75/1.22/150
19. Carlos Zambrano - Read again all of the positivity I wrote for Billingsley then invert it. 2009 Projections: 14-9/3.90/1.30/150
20. Edinson Volquez - Member last year when I told you to grab Volquez? Those were the days. Hand and hand, Volquez and I frolicked through the local dog park. Volquez said he wouldn’t ever let me down and I believed him. We laughed, we shared stories, we overcame some rough stretches like a 4.60 Post-All-Star Break ERA. Now, we’re done. 2009 Projections: 12-8/4.00/1.33/175
