Minchasa's Reading Note

2009年2月8日星期日

[MLB]RP Notes

[心得]

[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://baseball.fantasypros911.com/

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[文章]

Bill Bray- Bray posted a 2.87 ERA in 47 innings and 63 appearances, struck out more than a batter per inning and still has the highest ceiling of any of the left-handed relief prospects the Reds have on hand, which is not saying much. Bray won't be on anyone's radar come draft day, but he could emerge as a strong set-up man for Francisco Cordero.

Blaine Boyer- It’s a shock to see a pitcher with this skill set put up a 5.88 ERA in 72 innings. Blame the terrible 57% strand rate for the inflated ERA, which should rebound to the 70% range. Excellent strikeout and ground ball rates, he makes for a fine, cheap LIMA choice.

Bobby Jenks - The polar bear of the South Side notched 30 saves despite missing a few weeks with a back injury, but the scary part of the story is that his strikeout rate evaporated like the polar ice cap. The 5.55 K/9 rate is frighteningly low, and down for the second year in a row from his 10.33 mark in 2006. Jenks is still an elite groundball pitcher, inducing 57.6% of batted balls to the ground in 2008, but that won't sustain him if he doesn't get his strikeouts back. Be a little cautious; he may be sporting a hidden injury.

Bobby Parnell – He has a cannon for an arm, so the real question is if they team will use him as a starter or out of the pen. If he starts, he could be a real sleeper to help your team in strikeouts. If he relieves, he should have plenty of value in formats that utilize middle relievers. Either way, it’s worth paying attention to him in Spring Training and see if he makes the club or not.

Brandon League – After a forgettable year in 2007, League rebounded with a solid season in 2008, posting a 2.18 ERA. It’s amazing what happens to your numbers when you go from a BABIP of .410 to .277 in one season. League has an overpowering fastball but still has trouble locating it consistently for strikes. A walk rate of 4.09/9 and a FIP nearly two full runs higher than his ERA add up to a pitcher to avoid in 2009.

Chad Cordero-You will have to watch him in the spring. He is only 26 and can come back from a lost season due to shoulder surgery. He was on a three year decline from 2005 through 2007 so he has a lot of work to do to convince people that he is ready for a big job. He is a $1 filler guy at this point.

Cla Meredith-He was a big disappointment in 2008 as he struggled with his BABIP. He is probably the single most extreme groundball pitcher in baseball, with a 67% ground ball rate. This penalizes him in the BABIP category as ground balls are more likely to be hits than fly balls and the quality of your defense is the most important factor in his success. He walked far more batters than he did in 2006 and 2007 so if he can return to a BB rate under 2.0 he can be a $10 pitcher even if he doesn’t get saves.

Craig Hansen-If he were not a former first round pick he would be selling insurance. Hansen was rushed to the majors and his career likely ruined, though it is questionable whether he would ever have made it in the majors. That thwapping sound is the sound of his breaking stuff hitting the backstop.

Felipe Paulino- He was a hot prospect before missing most of 2008 with a nerve injury. Keep him on your radar if you are in deep keeper leagues.

Joe Nelson- Didn't pitch in 2005 or 2007 so do you gamble on drafting him in another odd year in 2009? That is the ultimate question all fantasy owners are contemplating. Well, that and what happened to Patrick DiCaprio's hair. Excellent strikeout rate, but that's basically it in terms of underlying skills for Nelson. He moves to Tampa Bay, where he joins the mix at the backend of the bullpen. If Troy Percival struggles with injuries, could he get a chance to close games? It's certainly possible, making him worth paying attention to.

Jonathan Meloan- Brought over from LA, where the Dodgers attempted to make him a starter. With the state of the Tribe’s bullpen he may get a shot right out of the spring. He features a low 90s fastball and a devastating slider; which can be a strong combination as a closer. As of this writing he is probably the best bullpen pitcher they have and he hasn’t even had a trial yet. In keeper leagues you should get him now while the getting is good.

Jose Ascanio- Could see a bigger role in ‘09 as he showed signs of excellence. Jose has the proverbial Big Fastball but as with most young pitchers he has trouble with the BB. At 23 years old he is developing into a solid reliever.

Jose Mijares - He pitched a total of 36.2 innings at three levels of the minors in 2008, racking up a 10.06 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. His September call-up was good enough for 5 strikeouts, no walks, and one earned run over 10.1 innings, but he wasn't quite so good in 2007 or 2006, which means the Twins will probably wait to see more from him before calling him up in 2009. That said, he could be a very good reliever.

Jose Veras – He used a mid-90s fastball and a curve that can be 20 miles slower to rack up strikeouts in 2008. He notched 9.83 SO/9 and had a strand rate of 82.2 percent. He needs to get his walks under control (4.53 per 9) but he’s an effective setup man who might be a closer for a team one day.

Manny Delcarmen – The local kid had a great season in relief for the Red Sox in 2008. A product of West Roxbury High School, Delcarmen throws in the mid 90s and has a strong curve, which helped him to an 8.72 SO/9 ratio. A groundball pitcher, he allowed just 0.61 HR/9 last season. Delcarmen had a nifty 1.12 WHIP and even picked up two saves last year, but with Papelbon in the pen his chances of a promotion to closer in 2009 are just about zero.

Mike Adams-He was once a top prospect felled by injuries that made a nice return in 2008. Like many pitchers he rode a short term sample size fluke into prominence, as he had an 82% LOB% in 2008. But unlike the Brandon Lyons of the world he has very good skills with the ability to strike out more than 10 batters per nine against 2.6 BB/9. He has a nice future in the pen if he stays healthy and is more likely to succeed as a closer if he gets a chance than Bell.

Pat Neshek - He sat out most of 2008 with an elbow injury, and wasn't back to throwing on the mound--even for practice--until the end of the season. It's a crying shame, because he has the skills to be one of the best set-up men in the majors--think Heath Bell, Carlos Marmol, or Dan Wheeler, but better. If he looks healthy in Spring Training, give him a try.

Peter Moylan- After missing almost the entire 2008 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May, Moylan could be ready by Opening Day in 2009. He possesses an excellent skill set and makes for a nice LIMA option, assuming no ill effects from the surgery.

Roy Corcoran-He is the type of pitcher than can slime his way into a closer’s role and do a decent job until a better option comes along. One of the most extreme groundball pitchers around, he posted a 70% (!) GB rate in 2008. His K rate plummeted in the majors but could easily shoot backup as he gets comfortable. He is nothing more than a player to keep an eye on, but with that extreme groundball approach he can get very lucky one year and move up the food chain.

Ryan Madson – The to Lidge has really settled into his role within the Phillies bullpen. Madson, who sports the best change-up on the team, has become more effective with the increased velocity on his fastball. A solid K/BB ratio of 2.91, HR/9 of 0.65, and a 51% ground ball rate make Madson the leading candidate for holds in 2009.

Santiago Casilla - He blazed through the first month of the season with an ERA under 1, but an elbow injury and luck caught up with him, bringing him to 3.93 for the season with a 1.59 WHIP and .357 BABIP. He has the ground ball skills and strikeout power to do much better, but it depends a lot on the wellness of his arm--if he has to throw his fastball more often than his slider, as he did last year, he'll lose his greatest asset.

Steve Shell-Another of the very few pleasant surprises for Washington in 2008. Though he was used as a mop up man, he put up a nice 2.16 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. A .220 BABIP and 86% LOB rate are clearly not sustainable, so he will not be worth that $1 if you are speculating on back up closers.

Takashi Saito - He still has elite level skills with a K rate above 11 and a walk rate of 3.5, and he has shown an ability to strand runners in the 78% range, so he is still an excellent pitcher. He's on the market after being non-tendered by the Dodgers and with a surplus of potential closers available, it really is possible that he ends up as a set-up man to start out '09.

Tony Pena- Hailed as the D-Backs’ future closer without actually having the skill set to back it up, Pena’s luck reverted in 2008 and his ERA rose back above 4. For all the talk about his great stuff, he’s only managed K/9 rates in the mid-6’s in each of his 3 seasons. Don’t draft him thinking he has a good chance at the closer role if Qualls disappoints, as he’s nothing more than a mediocre middle reliever at this point.

2009年2月5日星期四

[Life]朱企成－有夢最美，但要務實

[心得]

[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://www.cw.com.tw/article/index.jsp?id=36678

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[文章]

想找一個幸福的中年工作人，實不容易。中年人通常正處於三明治狀態，上有父母下有小孩，做什麼事都不好太隨心所欲；再者，不少中年人位居主管，也許自己很開心，苦的卻是下面的人。

朋友這麼推薦她的主管：「他身上有很多可以挖的寶藏，更棒的是你會覺得他很聰明，同時也覺得自己很讚，這就不是一般老闆都能做到的。」

這位讓自己和屬下都幸福工作的人，正式頭銜是達比思廣告公司客務總監朱企成。

自己選擇，自己負責

朱企成的工作經歷還算單純，到美國唸完MBA回台灣進入統一集團工作，負責產品規劃。4年後進入達彼思，接觸行銷領域，民國88年因為網路正熱，轉到第三波行銷事業部做IT規劃，去年全家到美國休息近一年，又重回達彼思。

休長假一年？在這不景氣聲沸沸揚揚的時代？

「很值得，才一年沒多大損失，」朱企成說，因為爸媽已移民美國，很難見面，想讓女兒過去陪陪他們，又不想把太太小孩留在那，自己在台灣賺錢，所以一起過去。

有句名言是沒有夕陽工業，只有夕陽公司，朱企成則認為，沒有夕陽公司，只有夕陽個人，有自信說放就放，並非誰替他撐腰，而是清楚了解自己想要的工作、想要的生活是什麼，因而不會瞻前顧後。

決定投入行銷領域，不離不棄，他認為和自己的專長有關。

「我的邏輯很好，」朱企成說，行銷工作很雜，不光動嘴巴還要執行，邏輯夠清楚才容易找到頭緒。他一直很喜歡沙盤推演式的活動，國中時最愛數學證明題，沈迷到自己發明結果去倒推題目。
「我的優點是非常願意面對問題，喜歡解決問題的成就感，」朱企成舉例，他常在家亂看電視廣告，思考別家廣告公司如何對客戶簡報，自己又會怎麼做。

　「人貴自知，」朱企成表示，想樂在工作，一定要清楚自己想做的和能做好的。他不是點子多的人，也許可以訓練，卻難有出頭天。但他擅長邏輯，思路清晰，處事、協調不錯，做行銷是如魚得水。

「基本上做這行要賤賤的，要很愛，」朱企成說，廣告業工時長、壓力大、變數多，如果沒有熱情，難以為繼。

「我會把客戶的產品當成自己的產品，」朱企成每日喝統一平衡水好幾瓶，手機用Nokia，和家人逛動物園也不忘勘查適合辦什麼活動。

他認為，想把客戶的事做好，跟客戶的好或不好起伏，才能在行銷工作裡找到意義和價值，否則只覺得被客戶使喚。

高中時，媽媽希望他當醫生，所以朱企成選擇自然組，結果根本沒興趣才改唸社會組，因此很多同學是醫生，或在竹科當電子新貴。

朱企成指出，如果繼續讀醫，會有更好的收入和社會地位，「看你想過得跩跩的還是賤賤的，」朱企成笑說，只要選對了自己的路，想通了，就會很快樂，也不需要羨慕別人。

因為討厭比，他努力遠離辦公室八卦，「你知道愈多，講愈多，愈不快樂，」朱企成說，把焦點放在跟別人爭，輸了不服氣就搞花樣，扭曲工作的真義，更容易挫折。

不少同輩常為了鬥爭張牙舞爪，他卻興趣缺缺，「把事情做好，該你的就是你的，」朱企成強調不是清心寡慾，只是一路走來，他相信不該是自己的也追不到。

由於手下的小AE壓力大、工作雜，很容易陣亡，他常提醒屬下，不能光看喜不喜歡現在做的事，而要看主管做的自己有沒有興趣，成功要素是什麼，如果沒有能不能培養，「不行就快閃，」朱企成直言。

如果想離職，要確定下一個選擇會更好，他最常聽到不滿現狀的人說「要去唸書」，結果只是想找個逃避壓力的避風港，往往最後沒去唸，又跑到別家公司打混仗。

朱企成認為，目前不是可以有暴發戶的社會，未來一步一腳印的故事會變多，「有夢最美，但要看得務實，」朱企成說。

[Life]致富非做不可的兩件事

[心得]

[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://www.cw.com.tw/article/index.jsp?page=7&id=36571

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[文章]

書名：《致富非做不可的兩件事》

作者：凱瑟琳．麥克布林

譯者：凌瑋

出版社：《天下雜誌》出版

出版日期：2009年1月

餐巾紙的背後　視覺思考的祕密

別鬧了。

只是一張早餐用過的餐巾紙，就為公司爭取到倫敦最大一宗線上教學專案？不用電腦或酷炫程式、不勞投影機，只要幾個圓、幾根箭頭，就能替Google、eBay、富國銀行等大企業解決問題，包括擬定營運策略、推新產品、設計技術平台？

沒錯，這是商業世界的新法寶：利用視覺化思考，提高解決問題的能力。發展出這套系統的企管顧問羅姆，單憑科技含量為零的餐巾紙、白板和一枝筆，遊走在ＩＢＭ、時代華納、沃爾瑪、輝瑞藥廠等大公司，教他們信筆畫圖，解決經營上各種疑難雜症。

化繁為簡　提升解決問題能力

羅姆的方法並不難，就是化繁為簡，將複雜的文字說明，化約為簡單幾張圖案。羅姆觀察，做生意的竅門在於如何解決問題，而所有的問題，最後都可以歸納為六個Ｗ，亦即人與事（who and what）、多少（how much）、何時（when）、何處（where）、如何做（how）以及為何（why）。只要學會用圖象表達六個Ｗ，難題幾乎都能迎刃而解。

例如，羅姆的公司曾接到一家年營業額百億美元的大出版集團求救，要他解決公司知名度太低、無法在紐約證交所上市的問題。這家出版社之前已請品牌公司診斷過，診斷書密密麻麻高達數百頁，看都看不完。

羅姆拿出紙筆，只用一張圖表，即清楚表達這家出版社面對的六Ｗ問題。出版社後來把圖裱起來，用來對外解釋公司目前及未來的市場定位。兩年後，公司順利上市。

視覺化思考之所以能成為行銷的絕妙工具，主要是它簡單（只要會畫圓圈、三角形、箭頭等基本圖形）、方便（紙與筆即可），況且在表達時，手繪圖案往往比電腦繪圖更容易讓人記住，又一目瞭然。

用圖象畫出要解決的問題之後，還可以依照羅姆整理出的視覺思考四步驟，檢驗圖案是否切中要害。

一、觀看：是蒐集資訊並且過濾資訊的過程。問題是什麼？有多少？少了哪些？能一眼看出什麼，哪些東西礙眼？

二、觀察：是選擇和歸類的過程。這圖案是什麼？之前看過嗎？有沒有規律或特別突出的訊息？哪些東西要過濾？重點順序是什麼？可以看出互動關係嗎？

三、設想：這是幫助你看到沒有出現的東西。這圖案在哪裡看過？和從前看過的有什麼共通點？有沒有更好的方式重組圖案，讓它更清楚？能不能調整圖案，看到原本看不到的東西？

四、展示：清楚呈現你的想法。在你設想的圖案中，哪三張最重要？重新審視最初見到的問題，用現在這種展示方式恰不恰當？

羅姆體會，做生意就是說故事，懂得看圖說故事，也能做出好生意。拿出紙筆試試看。（文／蕭富元）

[Life]找到幸福工作的祕訣

[心得]

[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://www.cw.com.tw/article/index.jsp?id=36571

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[文章]

找到幸福工作的祕訣

裁員減薪風暴中，許多人最企求的就是一份能養家餬口的工作。但是，有工作就有快樂嗎？你是否也曾早上起來掙扎半天，很不想去上班？

美國有機食品運動重量級人物戴維．史密斯在新書《幸福工作法則─愛．趣味．有意義》中指出，工業化的過程助長了科學唯物論，人類與工作的價值也變成了抽象的經濟商品，操縱在一群頭腦精明的有權階級手中，他們眼中只有策略、金錢、利潤，不在乎這些價值對我們的心靈、品格、社區和地球的影響。

人們渾然不知生存的意義和價值，大家都喪失了靈魂。要讓自己感到滿足而快樂，我們必須重新尋找工作中的意義。

你知道你的公司在做什麼嗎？

作者史密斯曾經是個擁有名牌跑車的電腦程式設計師，為了尋找工作的意義，他轉而投身社會運動，並創辦了好幾家綠色企業，包括著名的史密斯霍肯（Smith & Hawken）園藝用品公司。他在這本既像回憶錄、又像告白書的著作中，呼籲大家放棄抽象不實的工作，重拾有意義、有用處的工作，為自己和他人開創充實豐富的人生。

他以自己的故事為例。初入社會時，他曾在一家大型國防工業承包公司上班。由於他受過良好的專業訓練，因此能迅速有效地操作電腦、列印報告，有效追蹤不同的作業進度，但他並不知道為什麼要交那些報告，也不知道公司究竟在做哪些事情。基於安全的考量，公司內部門禁森嚴，所以他無法進入大部份的製造區，也不關心公司在製造什麼產品。

但這樣的企業，如果沒有人監督，會變成胃口奇大的巨嘴獸，會吞噬周圍的人，無人可以約束。而在那裡工作的人，也會覺得人生無趣，不知道為什麼要工作。

企業一味追求效率化與全球化，也會使人與人之間的距離變得更遙遠，失去直接的關連後，工作的意義也會蕩然無存。

「假如我是受雇於加州某公司的農人，公司即將把我生產的食物出售給俄亥俄州的消費者，那麼，我提供勞務的對象對我來說，就是個抽象的東西，我永遠看不到他們。既然如此，如果我用比較廉價省力的方法趕走田裡的害蟲，讓他們的食物沾上有毒物質，又有什麼大不了的？」史密斯說。

一個令人難過的事實是，覺得工作沒有意義的人比例很高。作者引述一項近期公布的美國零售業員工意見調查顯示，每天都不想上班的人佔四八％，不滿意個人薪水者佔五四％，認為顧客、雇主和家庭要求過高而使他們工作壓力過大的人佔四八％，立志在新年後立即跳槽的人則佔四七％。

勇敢去冒險

作者指出，我們清醒的時候，大部份時間都在工作，如果我們把所有寶貴的時間都拿去從事我們毫不重視、甚至會傷害社區和家人的工作，就無法完成有意義的工作。更糟的是，沒有善用我們的時間，接著就會封閉內心的感受，利用各種逃避方式麻痺自我，為自己築起一道愈來愈堅硬的軀殼，再戴上一副嘻皮笑臉的假面具，扼殺一切心靈活動──至少在五點下班以前必須暫停這些活動。

那麼，要如何才能找到有意義的工作？史密斯呼籲大家重新培養七個重要的傳統美德，其中「節制」的美德最能幫助我們展開有意義的工作。因為如果你所求不多，也不把增加財富和收入當作唯一的成就，你就比較能無拘無束地展開冒險，為工作賦予崇高的意義，也比較能挑選你願意投效的公司。

作者用他個人的親身經歷，證明這是可行的。他在辭去電腦程式設計師的工作之後，投身社會運動，全心輔助美國知名工會運動領袖凱薩．查維斯（Cesar Chavez），協助農場工人爭取應有的權利，改善生活。他和妻子住在可供食宿的農場，週薪只有五美元，這樣工作了四年，並不以為苦，反而樂在其中。

在農場的階段性任務完成之後，他需要再找一份有意義的工作。他本來考慮非營利性質的工作，但他發現許多非營利機構也跟公家單位一樣組織散慢，缺少人情味，不符合他需要挑戰的個性。

在許多志同道合的朋友鼓勵支持之下，他於七○年代和八○年代分別創立了「荊棘地合作市場」和「史密斯霍肯園藝用品公司」，他們都是荊棘地協會（Briarpatch Society）的成員。荊棘地協會是一個以舊金山為大本營的非正式商業協會，由一群有共同理想和價值觀的中小企業主所組成。

荊棘地網絡的一個重要價值觀是：用「減法」過生活。他們自願在生活習慣、居住條件、購買行為等方面力求簡樸。他們每週定期聚會，分享彼此的專長與資源，也一起跳舞嬉鬧。

在七○年代初，美國適逢經濟蕭條，經濟混亂、價值動搖、失業激增，大企業幾乎一蹶不振的時期，荊棘地的成員因為能同甘苦、共患難，因而他們的生活不受到外界干擾，能維持安定，也一直激盪出許多創業的點子。這個案例顯示，要勇於追尋有意義的工作，過簡樸生活，需要有社團同好的支持。

史密斯的祖父母是農人，他從小也經常在農場勞動，因此對農業有很深的感情，也認為有機家庭農業是最務本的行業，最接近傳統智慧所教導的價值觀：與大自然和諧共存，只取合理的利潤，生生不息。所以他後來創立的許多企業，都跟有機農業有關，包括有機種子公司、有機食品公司、有機花坊、有機外帶食品連鎖餐廳等，還有協助小型有機農場取得認證的非營利網路組織。

本書不但記載作者本身的經歷，也介紹了一群「創意行動英雄」的故事。在當前這個類似七○年代的蕭條時期，這些故事可以讓我們用不同的眼光來看待失業問題。對於失去的，不必惋惜，更好的機會，可能就在眼前。（文／金玉梅）

[Finance]保八？中國經濟硬著陸，6％就偷笑

[心得]

[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://www.cw.com.tw/article/index.jsp?id=36675
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[文章]

中國08年第四季的成長率減至6.8%，約為07年的一半，也是自01年以來的最低點，工業方面的指標也顯示中國正面臨嚴重的衰弱。不過，經濟學人仍然維持原本的預測，預估09年的成長率為6%，即使如此，這是自90年以來的最低點，也代表中國經濟的硬著陸。

此預測的基礎是中國的房地產會在09年後半復甦，加上政府的刺激方案和降息支持投資成長。在外部環境極差的情況下，09年的前景仍有非常大的下滑風險。如果全球經濟進一步惡化，出口將更加衰弱，壓縮製造業的投資成長。若刺激資產部門的計畫沒有成效，達到6%的成長率非常困難。

最後一項風險則是消費者支出。失業率上升、薪資成長低加上消費者信心不足，今年私人消費可能會大幅下滑，雖然零售數字仍然不錯，但是中國政府數據向來不可靠，其他指標也已經顯示消費相當虛弱。

目前中國政府已經推出了4億人民幣的刺激計畫，同時調低利率和取消貸款額度限制，下一步可能是增加中央政府支出，中國政府財政體質良好，但此方式可能使經濟過度倚賴投資而非私人消費。

其他手段尚有擴張信貸、刺激消費以及增加競爭力。中國銀行體質相對良好，但在經濟衰弱時擴張信貸，未來可能會使壞債大增。增加消費可以減少對出口和投資的倚賴，但中國政府必須增加醫療和教育投資，才能讓增加的可支配所得不會變為存款。減低製造成本或是讓貨幣貶值，則是較不理想的方式，目前出口走弱不是因為競爭力不足，而是外部需求下滑。

中國的狀況仍然比任何一個大型經濟體都好，假設全球經濟持續嚴重衰退下，中國今年只有4%成長率也可能發生，很明顯的短期內，中國決策者都不會有休息的機會。（黃維德譯）