[MLB]Is Ian Kinsler Really the Top Second Baseman?

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
Fantasy911
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[文章]

If you take a look at some of the pre-draft rankings available online now--like, say, the rankings provided by FP911, or the new top 500 put together by Mike Podhorzer--you will find that Ian Kinsler leads the pack at second base. As far as the fantasy hosting sites go, Yahoo! sports also ranks him as the top second baseman, while ESPN and CBS each put him at third for the position. His current ADP at Mock Draft Central is 11.28, six places ahead of Chase Utley (17.13), the next second baseman drafted.

The enthusiasm for Kinsler is understandable. While he has been a fair hitter for much of his professional career, he hit .319 in 2008. While he's always been speedy, he stole a career-high 26 bases last year. And while his career-high mark for home runs was set with 20 in 2007, he still hit 18 in 2008, and posted a .375 OBP and .892 OPS. In all, the 2008 season gave us a tantalizing glimpse of Ian Kinsler as the Carlos Beltran of second base--a legitimate five-category player, good for power, speed, and batting average, whose overall excellence tempts you to pick him over the (only) more powerful or (only) faster options at the same position.

The Injured Top Tier
Unfortunately, as many will be quick to point out (including Brian Joura over at FanGraphs), Kinsler comes with a drawback--even with three good years in the major leagues, Kinsler has yet to play a full season. An injured thumb in 2006; an injured left foot in 2007; a sports hernia in 2008: each has limited Kinsler's playing time, and the wise fantasy drafter would keep a similarly not-quite-full 2009 season in mind.

Strangely enough, Kinsler's value in 2009 is likely boosted by an injury--an injury to Chase Utley. Utley underwent surgery on his hip in November, which caused many to worry that he might miss a month or more of the season. Recent reports say that Utley may be ready to play on Opening Day, but I'm sure that his surgery--and the initial worries over his return date--are still suppressing the usual excitement for his performance.

To see how assuming less playing time for Utley can affect Kinsler's standing in the top tier, let's take a look at the numbers offered by Mike Podhorzer's excellent projections:

Player	AB	AVG	BABIP	HR	RBI	RUN	SB	$Total
Ian Kinsler	550	.295	.310	23	80	105	28	28.82
Brian Roberts	610	.288	.330	9	55	105	38	22.74
Chase Utley	500	.301	.320	26	85	95	11	21.17
Brandon Phillips	575	.279	.300	22	85	85	25	20.79
Dustin Pedroia	625	.317	.330	13	70	100	12	18.79

Here is where Kinsler's value as an all-around excellent player emerges. While Brian Roberts is faster, he doesn't project to have the same power or average as Kinsler. While Brandon Phillips can match Kinsler in power and speed, he loses out on average too. While Dustin Pedroia projects to be a better hitter than Kinsler, he doesn't look likely to come near to his home run or stolen base totals. And while Chase Utley could overpower Kinsler in hitting skill, and could have a modest base-stealing ability of his own, he's currently projected to have fewer at-bats than any of the other second basemen in the top tier.

Is Kinsler a Safe Bet?
It is worth looking at Kinsler's recent history to see how likely he is to repeat his past performance. Here are his basic and peripheral stats for the past three years:

Season	PA	AVG	HR	SB	OBP	BABIP
2006	474	.286	14	11	.347	.310
2007	566	.263	20	23	.355	.282
2008	583	.319	18	26	.375	.339

Season	BB%	K%	LD%	GB%	FB%	HR/FB%
2006	8.6%	15.1%	20.6%	35.3%	44.2%	8.8%
2007	11.4%	17.2%	19.6%	34.7%	45.7%	11.0%
2008	8.0%	12.9%	24.2%	32.4%	43.3%	9.2%

As we can see, Kinsler has shown some good and better-than-average walk and strikeout rates, which suggest that his average and OBP numbers can be expected to repeat. Likewise, while his line drive rates and BABIP have fluctuated somewhat, they haven't departed from each other in any significant way that might indicate a streak of luck (good or bad) or any great regression in either direction.

Kinsler's batted ball statistics look stable enough, which is good for another high-average season, but considering how average his HR/FB numbers are, it doesn't seem likely he will enjoy any large power spike in the coming season. Since he's still 26, it's not outlandish to think some sort of increase in home runs or doubles could come along, but I wouldn't expect any dramatic surge past 25 home runs.

In all, Kinsler profiles to continue his performance as an excellent hitter who contributes in all the standard fantasy categories. Though his playing time is a considerable concern, he is, by all reports, healthy and on track to start the year in his usual form--which is a very good form to be in, and one that outshines most of the other options at second base. As Opening Day approaches, Chase Utley's value is likely to climb back up, and he may take the top spot among second basemen in most drafts. But you couldn’t ask for a better second choice than Ian Kinsler.

[Ericsson] 渠道社会化：电信的杀手锏

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://jiyongqing.blog.sohu.com/110337436.html
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[文章]

上周五参加了中国电信组织的移动终端产业合作高层论坛。在此之前，我在去年已经使用过中国移动的TD手机，体验的感觉不是太好，我个人感觉不好的原因一个是网络覆盖还不太好，经常需要在TD和G网之间进行切换，另一个就是手机的功能设计确实不太好，操作起来比较费劲。春节期间换了一个港版诺基亚E71，手机上网挺方便的，遗憾的就是国内目前还没有W的网络，不能使用3G的功能。即使将来联想的W网开通了，俺的手机又是移动的号码，只能换号才能使用。目前很多口碑很好的3G手机，大部分都是基于W网络的，我想将来面临着我这样烦恼的人也还不少。

现在，3家运营商的3G牌照都已经发了，消费者也在热切期待电信的EVDO了，这也是目前全球比较成熟的3G网络，目前美国的Verzion、印度的塔塔电信、日本的KDDI和韩国的SK电讯等较大电信运营商均采用了这种制式的3G网络。

中国电信也将采用EVDO，这种3G标准的优点是从2G升级速度快，目前中国电信在网络端的建设正在大张旗鼓地进行中，根据这次会议上透露的情况，3月EVDO手机将试商用，5月将规模商用，这将比联通快上两个月左右的时间，如果电信能够打好这个时间差，在3G上就有可能处于领跑的位置。

但是EVDO行业目前的缺点也是非常明显，就是在整个产业链中高通的主导力量太强，导致其他厂商赚钱较难，因此这几年当中排名全球前几位的手机厂商如诺基亚、索爱等基本上已经推出了这个市场，这也使得EVDO手机与WCDMA相比无论是款式、价格、渠道等各个方面均没有竞争优势。

这个对于中国的消费者来说就是致命的了，你如果想买手机，去手机卖场或者去国美苏宁，看到的基本上都是G网（将来是G/W双网）手机，看得眼花缭乱，要便宜的话还可以买山寨机，也是一水的G网手机，自然不会考虑C网手机，也就不会选择中国电信的服务了。

对于渠道的这种困局，原来运营C网的联通也很着急，因此在前几年把社会化渠道收归联通华盛，希望通过集采的方式拉动市场。但是从目前来看效果不太理想，道理很简单，一个人再有能力能做几件事？当然不如大家一起做了，当然前提条件是大家都往一个方向使劲。

电信的这次论坛其实主要就是解决劲往一处使的问题。为此，中国电信总经理王晓初在前不久会见了诺基亚、三星、摩托罗拉、LG四大手机巨头和普天、中邮、天音、神州通四大手机经销商，并表示，电信是靠运营业务挣钱的，电信不会从手机上挣钱，将会把利润让给产业链的各方。应该说，这个表态还是很积极的。

在这次论坛上，中国电信副总经理杨小伟表示，电信将会开放自有渠道，以吸引更多的社会力量加入CDMA阵营。同时，电信旗下从事手机集采的天翼终端公司将会采用“冷热交替法”，说白了就是对于市场上热销的机型天翼终端公司将坚决推出，将利润让给渠道；而对于还没有启动的部分机型，天翼终端公司将会通过集采的方式来鼓舞市场信心。杨小伟透露，去年11月份CDMA手机通过社会渠道销售的比例还只有8%，12月就上升到了12%，到了今年1月就已经达到了30%，他希望将来社会化能够占到80%的比例。在这次论坛上，中邮、天音等国包代表也被安排在了第一排最中间的位置。

从目前来看，电信的这种策略已经激起了产业链各方面的极大兴趣。我现场采访了几家渠道商、手机厂商和设计公司，大家都对进入CDMA表示了浓厚的兴趣，德信和龙旗都表示已经把GSM研发产品线砍了好几百人，全力投入CDMA手机的研发。像原来主要做GSM的国内手机老大天宇朗通也在近日强力杀入CDMA领域。更有意思的是，论坛茶歇期间天翼终端公司副总经理马道杰被问到如何看待山寨机的问题时持不置可否的态度，不过由于目前CDMA手机领域还缺乏MTK那样的Turn Key厂商，山寨机大规模泛滥的可能性不太大。

电信今年的目标是要新增用户3500万，新增终端5000万部（手机+数据卡），终端机型300款，以国内每年2亿部的市场容量来计算，将能够占据国内手机市场25%的份额，可谓四分天下。如果这个目标能够实现的话，将会对目前占据市场主导地位的中国移动产生一定的冲击。未来，电信三国演义的好戏还在后头。对于喜欢尝鲜的消费者来说，2009年将能享受到3G的大餐。最近希望换机的可以再等等，等到全新的花样繁多的3G手机出来再说。

[Finance]貶值救台灣經濟? 算了吧

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://www.rusrule.com/rusrule/?p=546
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[文章]

貶值救台灣經濟? 算了吧

今天的經濟日報和工商時報, 不約而同都在第三版登出了央行總裁和經建會主委異口同聲對企業界要求以讓新台幣貶值方式來拯救經救作法不表贊同。貶值救經濟? 我想可能這些企業主如果不是睜眼說瞎話, 那就可能是太久沒深入基層了吧.

首先說明貶值的定義, 基本貨幣本身是不會貶(升)值的, 貶(升)值一定是相對於某一貨幣才會發生, 如果是貨幣相對於貨品, 那麼就是物價上揚(下跌).在台灣, 多數在講今天新台幣貶(升)值, 指的大都是相對於美元而言(請注意, 這世界不是只有一種貨幣)。

其次, 為什麼對美元貶值有利於出口? 很簡單, 因為同樣賺一美元, 在USD/NTD =1:30 時, 廠商等同於賺了30元新台幣, 但是如果貶到USD/NTD=1:40時, 廠商就賺了40元, 相對來說, 如果廠商只想賺30元NTD, 那他可以降低售價, 相對提高了他產品的國際競爭力. 相反的, 貶值不利於進口, 因為 USD/NTD =1:30時, 進口商只要付30元NTD去買1USD的產品, 當貶到USD/NTD=1:40時, 進口商要付到40元, 毛利下降不說, 可能進口產品還要調高價格.

我可以理解, 為什麼這些企業主會提出這樣的要求, 主要是來自台灣的主要競爭對手─南韓, 從今年的1/1 到今天約莫44天內, 韓圜一共對美元貶值了11% ( Jan.1 USD/KRW=1:1254 今天收盤是1:1404), 同期間USD/NTD 則是貶值了3.6% ( Jan.1 USD/NTD=1:32.82 今天是1:34.04), 這對一些處於標準化的商品, 如DRAM, 石化原料…等傷害最大.

但是為什麼我又說這些企業主昧於事實呢? 答案是, 如果十年前提出以上的說法, 或許還有幾分正確, 但今天卻不見得適用, 這主要和今天台灣的產業型態有關, 台灣本身幾乎不產什麼資源, 產業也是以加工模式為主, 今天如果新台幣對美元走貶, 對業主而言, 只有短暫的快樂 (因為還有未換成新台幣的外幣或是之前庫存的原料), 馬上他會面臨到成本增加, 這同樣會反映在他的售價上。

此外, 台灣多數的製造業多已外移到大陸去, 這些薪水都是要用人民幣支付 新台幣對美元的貶值, 相對也提高公司勞動力的成本. 簡單地說, 新台幣對美元升值, 公司原料和勞動成本下降, 但報價競爭力低, 相反地, 新台幣對美元貶值, 公司製造成本提高, 但報價競爭力上揚, 基本上沒有一方是絕對有利的.

相反的, 如果一旦新台幣對美元大幅貶值, 對企業利潤的增加有限, 但是全體老百姓卻要為此付出代價,所有進口的大宗物資都會上揚, 麵粉會上漲、石油會上漲、沙拉油…等都會上漲, 形成老百姓用血汗錢去補貼郭台銘、施崇棠的冏況.

另外, 從投資而言, 一旦新台幣長期走向對美元趨貶, 亦不利外資投資台灣, 很快地大家就會看到外資快速的流出台灣, 股市下挫.

那麼韓國為什麼會這麼作呢? 理由我個人推測有二

• 1. 韓式的競爭文化: 就像倚天屠龍記裡的七傷拳一樣, 傷人十分先傷己七分,先把敵人拼倒了再說, 這是很標準韓國人作生意模式.
• 2. 韓國實際的經濟情況要遠比檯面上顯示的數字更嚴重

不管韓國怎樣, 回到問題本身, 其實, 我個人認為這次經濟的問題, 在於需求的急速消失, 而不在於競爭. 特別是像台韓這樣生產中高品質、中間價位的產品, 除非台灣和韓國要把品質拉到和大陸、東南亞水準去競爭, 否則本身貨幣再怎麼貶值, 效果真的不大. 反而傷己更深. 相反地, 既然貶值無效, 或者說不管升貶值影響都不大 (因為台灣只是賺取製造成本和售價的加工費), 其實台灣應該反而可以考慮讓新台幣對其他貨幣大幅升值, 一方面可以降低百姓生活的負擔, 另方面有利提高台灣的購買力, 協助台灣產業進行整合或購併.

新台幣貶值就可以救經濟? 算了吧, 我覺得升值救經濟還比較有可能!

[Finance]大廠轉向 手機代工面臨陣痛

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://n.yam.com/chinatimes/computer/200902/20090213751266.html
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[文章]

摩托羅拉、索尼愛立信釋單策略大轉變，國內手機代工產業面臨極大挑戰。據了解，摩托羅拉、索尼愛立信決定不再對國內合作夥伴釋出GSM代工訂單，未來代工機種將轉向EDGE，雖然EDGE手機均價（ASP）是GSM手機的1倍以上，但國內各手機代工業者訂單量可能只有去年的一半以下、甚至更低，ASP提升效果難以彌補出貨量大幅衰退的衝擊，也讓不少業界人士認為，今年將是國內手機代工產業最黑暗的一年。

隨著業績不振，摩托羅拉不僅大砍今年中高價位的新機種開發計畫，即使是正崴對摩托羅拉報價低到不行的GSM手機，也在最後一刻喊卡，而索尼愛立信過去兩年多來積極耕耘的低價手機計畫，在索愛高層公開表示今年將重點拉回高價手機後，等於宣告索愛進軍低價手機鎩羽而歸。

另外，經濟情勢險峻也讓一線手機大廠決定縮短戰線、集中資源，據了解，摩托羅拉、索尼愛立信不約而同地決定棄守中低價位GSM手機的ODM計畫，未來對國內手機代工夥伴釋出訂單，轉移至EDGE手機。

業界人士透露，EDGE手機平均FOB價格還有40美元左右，相較於超低價GSM手機FOB報價早就落到20美元以下來說，相當於賣一支EDGE手機等於賣兩支超低價GSM手機。客戶釋單重點轉向EDGE，對受困於ASP過低、毛利不停向下挑戰極限的國內手機代工業者來說，摩托羅拉、索尼愛立信決定放棄對國內合作夥伴釋出GSM手機ODM訂單，未嘗不是一件好事。

但是，有一好就沒兩好。由於EDGE手機大量取代GSM手機的時間點還沒來臨，大廠釋出的EDGE手機訂單量遠小於GSM手機，以去年第四季摩托羅拉交給華寶的訂單為例，據悉，EDGE機種訂單量，大約僅有GSM手機的20分之1，釋出的機種相較於GSM手機，也只有個位數字。

EDGE尚未成氣候，大廠GSM代工訂單卻先行退場，加上3G手機代工訂單也持遲未見放大，國內手機代工業者還是有一段痛苦的轉換期要先熬過去，也讓今年可能是國內手機代工產業成氣候以來，最為黯淡艱險的一年。

[Finance][金融][新聞] 金融風暴吹向產業面﹝十二﹞DRAM 茂德篇

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://www.wretch.cc/blog/chunkaiw/17999819
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[文章]

紓困？不紓困？ 茂德噴口水行情

【聯合晚報╱記者陳雲上/台北報導】 2009.02.13 03:14 pm

2月14日茂德110億元ECB到期面臨贖回的「情人劫」歹戲拖棚，但劇情張力隨時時間迫近而高潮迭起。以台銀、土銀、合庫、一銀為首的銀行團昨晚緊急召開會議研商對策，但因此案解決的「難度太高」，至今天中午為止對是否對茂德增貸50億元根本沒有進展，卻因上午傳出經濟部長尹啟銘一句「茂德員工明天可以安心過情人節」，讓股價打落跌停的茂德11時過後急攻上漲停板1.58元，也讓銀行團對官員這種談話「相當感冒」。 眼見茂德110億元ECB的最後贖回日即將在2月14日到期，銀行團急得像熱鍋上的螞蟻，主要銀行也在近期頻頻開會研議對策。但因主管機關經濟部，從頭一直展現了「解決問題」的意思，讓銀行團誤以為政府將會出面解決這些債務問題。但隨著時間不斷逼近，銀行團卻一直等不到政府或是茂德的積極動作，甚至經濟部、工業局在二天前宣布「政府來不及介入了」，雙手一攤，讓銀行團自行解決這團「火球」。 當銀行團正苦惱如何解決此一難題時，經濟部長尹啟銘卻在媒體熱衷期待找到解決方案時，詢問「茂德情人劫過得去嗎? 」以四兩撥千斤的手法、半開玩笑地說「情人節是個周末的好假期」、「茂德員工將可以安心過一個情人節」簡單帶過。卻因這種過於簡單的說法，讓外界深信政府、銀行團已經和茂德達成最終的解決方案，結果在上午11時茂德股價出現戲劇化飆漲，茂德股價從早盤二度觸底1.38元的跌停板，11時過後直線拉上漲停板1.58元，茂德股價出現如雲霄飛車的大漲、大跌的「口水」行情，卻是讓銀行「啞巴吃黃蓮、有苦說不出」。 【2009/02/13 聯合晚報】@ http://udn.com/

政府口水護盤 銀行團被綁架

【聯合晚報╱記者陳雲上/特稿】 2009.02.13 03:14 pm

政府一而再向DRAM廠商進行紓困「口水護盤」，但授信銀行團卻反而成了政策紓困案下的直接受害者，更口語的說法，銀行團根本就是被茂德案「綁架」了。 觀察茂德這次紓困案，及其和銀行團之間的心結，確實形成一種「環環相扣」的無奈。由於DRAM產業是台灣兆元雙星產業的一環，不可能輕言放棄，在政府出面協助下，茂德在去年底即獲得政府紓困，銀行團也在農曆年前通過給予茂德在銀行團高達560億元聯貸案和授信案的「貸款一年展期」承諾。 但在銀行貸款案取得一年展期承諾後，茂德2月14日110億元ECB到期的資金壓力，卻可能成為壓垮所有銀行貸款授信、拖累到茂德整個經營後續發展的「最後一根稻草」。 目前茂德110億元ECB的主要債權人中，台灣銀行、土地銀行、第一銀行、合作金庫各自抱了1500萬美元、1000萬美元、1000萬美元和500萬美元，等於這四家龍頭銀行就抱了4000萬美元、折約台幣14億元的ECB債權。 按照正常流程，一旦茂德無法償付到期的ECB，正常狀況下會召集「ECB債權人會議」要求給予同意展期，或是以折讓方式買回，但在2月14日這段漫長過程中，卻始終未召集債權人會議，甚至茂德想透過ECB管理銀行花旗銀行以半價方式以50億元買下110億元的ECB，茂德更擬額外再向銀行申請50億元的聯貸支付，卻因無法獲得金士頓增提15億元以上的保證和擔保品，讓銀行團50億元聯貸案無法過關。 50億元聯貸案過不了關，等於茂德110億元的ECB無法支付了，屆時手中持有茂德ECB的台銀、土銀、一銀、合庫都將面臨「投資損失」。但後續還將如骨牌效果一樣，茂德因ECB到期無法支付，股價被迫打落權額交割股，進而拖累到原本已經獲得展期560餘億元的聯貸案和授信案，變成違約款項，拖累到目前20多家主要與茂德往來的授信銀行。 而在主要貸款銀行中，又以台銀91.6億元、土銀49.6億元和華銀46.2億元位居前三大，其中台銀、土銀不論是ECB債權或茂德貸款授信都是「最大的兩家」。 換言之，台銀、土銀主導的茂德案，若同意借50億元給茂德，等於是台銀、土銀自己拿錢借給茂德，買回折價一半的茂德ECB，銀行用自己的錢、還要賠一半的投資損失「兩波段遭茂德剝削」。但若不同意借50億元，茂德110億元的ECB等於一塊錢都要不回來，還將拖累到二、三十家本國銀行高達560億元的聯貸、授信案，面對這場茂德110億元ECB案，銀行團，尤其是台銀、土銀、合庫、一銀根本就是遭「綁架」，借不借，結果都是一樣輸。 【2009/02/13 聯合晚報】@ http://udn.com/

冷眼集》茂德要救不救 政府是要怎樣？

【聯合晚報╱記者徐睦鈞/特稿】 2009.02.13 03:14 pm

茂德科技公司債到期問題自去年底開始延燒，要救不救各界都看政府怎麼做，政府先是大喊要救，接著又說不拿半毛錢，態度轉變之大，也讓茂德的股價每天暴起暴跌，至今還是大問號，但卻讓投機客趁機操弄市場，從中獲利，政府只放話卻無所作為，對股市投資人才是最大不公平。 政府從去年底就高喊DRAM產業一定要救，原本讓第一家申請紓困的茂德鬆一口氣，以為公司債到期的問題可暫獲解決，但花了兩個月的時間，卻說政府不會出半毛錢，茂德要自己解決，不但讓茂德喪失了黃金救援時間，也讓整個產業對於政府到底要如何救DRAM，至今還是滿頭疑惑。 很顯然地，政府對於是否救茂德，行政院各部會都有自己的立場，包括經濟部、金管會、財政部等都各自有一套救法，今天經濟部喊救，明天財政部就說不能救，多頭馬車的決策過程，只好讓媒體每天大作文章，隨著茂德公司債的期限到期，每天都有不同的傳聞。 正因為全體國民聽不懂政府的官方語言，也讓茂德的生死成了一場賭局，跟隨著官員的放話起舞，從一開始政府同意紓困DRAM業，到後來政府又不願拿錢，一路走來的政策搖擺，剛好讓茂德的股價有了投機的空間。 明天茂德的公司債就到期了，政府弄了大半天，還是事不關己，就連到底要不要讓茂德關門都沒個譜，直到最後關頭，顧慮到茂德若倒，將衝擊銀行體系，經濟部長尹啟銘又開口說出，茂德可以好好過情人節的話。就這樣，茂德的股價又起死回生，上市櫃公司一般在盤中的消息，政府管制甚嚴，對照政府官員在這段期間的「說法」，不也是股市秩序大亂的來源之一。 【2009/02/13 聯合晚報】@ http://udn.com/

[MLB]Starting Pitcher Report

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
Fantasy 911
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[文章]

Aaron Cook-He had an excellent season with a 16-9 3.96 line. But like many extreme groundballers with low K rates his BABIP can fluctuate. There is nothing in his line to suggest that his season isn’t repeatable within the normal bounds of fluctuation, and low strikeout pitchers don’t do well on expected metrics, so we are going to say that he will have less wins and a higher ERA but probably under 4.30.


Adam Miller- It is pitchers like Miller that give rise to the axiom “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.” The talent is top notch but he is always injured. He has potential, and has generally put up groundball rates higher than 50% in the minors with K rates close to 9, the combination we love to see. If healthy he can step into a rotation right now.

Anthony Reyes- Freed from Dave Duncan’s shackles where he was forced to be what he was not, Reyes showed great promise before being beset by injury. You want a dark horse candidate for a breakout? He is as good a bet for a breakout in2009 as any $1 or $2 player can be. Analysis of his skills and performance tells us very little that we don’t know; where sabermetrics sometimes miss the mark is in player changing circumstances like Reyes. Go get him as a flyer in draft leagues and spend a dollar or three on him in auction leagues, and when you speak of FantasyPros911.com speak well.


Braden Looper-Against all odds he has turned into a nice solid starter, to the chagrin of Mets' fans everywhere. He does not strike out a lot of hitters, less than 5.0 per nine in 2008, but balances that with good control to keep his K/BB rate around 2.5, plenty good for a league average pitcher. He is 33 so this good run could come to an end anytime. At this point, his destination is still up in the air as well, which certainly would have a major influence on his value.



Burke Badenhop- Lots of grounders and fantastic control were Badenhop’s calling cards in the minors. He’s never been much of a strikeout pitcher, but then again, most groundballers aren’t. Unfortunately, he went down in mid-June with shoulder tendonitis and didn’t return so his status is up in the air at the moment. But if he’s healthy and finds himself in the rotation at some point he has the type of skill set that could see him surprise. And heck, with a name like Burke Badenhop, he’s destined to become a star.


Clay Hensley-Lost most of 2008 to injury, but was able to squeeze in a few innings. He is a low strikeout pitcher who can be decent if he keeps his walks in check. Given the state of the Padres’ rotation he could easily win a job in the spring, so keep him on your radar.



Clayton Richard - He blazed through AA and AAA ball in 2008, and promptly hit a wall on his call up to the majors. His ERA ballooned to 6.04 (and his BABIP to .347), while his strikeout rate dipped to 5.48. The silver lining is that he could be learning well on the job: after starting the year in the minors and going through the bad outings in the majors, Richard pitched a solid start against the Yankees to end the season (and was excellent in a few innings of relief in the playoffs). Some caution is advisable, but the upside is very good here.


David Purcey – A strained elbow ligament limited Purcey to 11 games in 2007 but he rebounded with a strong season at Triple-A last year. Injuries to Marcum and McGowan opened up the chance for Purcey to make his major league debut and he made 12 starts in the majors. His 3-6, 5.54 mark was uninspiring but he did average 8.03 SO/9 and featured a fastball in the low-90s. His strand rate was just 67.5 percent and combined with a 4.67 FIP that was nearly a run lower than his actual ERA, there’s room for improvement if he can hold down a spot in the rotation.

Doug Davis- Amazingly returned from surgery relating to thyroid cancer, he’s a decent source of strikeouts, but that’s about it. Poor control and at age 33, has little upside.


Franklin Morales-He was hurt by a poor 63% LOB% but that doesn’t mean he was good. Morales is often thought of as a decent prospect, but he has yet been unable to translate his nice K rates to the majors. He is a late flyer in NL-only auction leagues and that’s all.

Gio Gonzalez - His August call-up was a disaster, but it would be unfair to expect anything else. He's not yet ready for the majors, needing badly to improve his control. If given enough time to let that improve, he has the skills to be an excellent starter. But he's not even a passable one now.


Glen Perkins - His past minor league performance is more exciting (and also a mite more erratic) than his fellow rookies, but more than any other pitcher on the staff his transition to the majors has looked more like a step down than a step up. He could be a high-strikeout pitcher some day.



Homer Bailey-Bailey, 7th overall pick in 2004, made just eight starts for the Reds last year, posting an ERA of nearly 8 and a 2.092 WHIP, and was nearly as hittable in AAA. Bailey showed little of the talent that made him a #1 prospect and had the Reds salivating at the thought of their potential new ace, whose pure stuff appeared to take a hit as well. Reports of Bailey not paying much attention to coaches or opposing players are not encouraging, considering all that he still has to learn about the craft of pitching to ever reach expectations. He's still just 22, though, and might benefit from a change of scenery.


Humberto Sanchez – The main piece in the Gary Sheffield trade, Sanchez rebounded from a lost 2007 season in which he did not pitch due to elbow surgery, Sanchez advanced all the way to the majors, making two relief appearances for New York in 2008. The 6-foot-6, 270-pound Sanchez throws in the mid-90s and has a good slider. He fanned 19 batters in 14.2 innings in the minors last year and also showed good command, which had been a problem for him previously as a starter in the Detroit organization.

Ian Kennedy – No one can succeed in the majors with a 5.90 BB/9 ratio. Then you throw in a .347 BABIP and a 57.1 percent strand rate and you get the train wreck that was Kennedy’s 2008 season. He displayed good walk rates in the minors so it’s too soon to give up on him but there’s no reason to target Kennedy coming into the 2009 season.

Jack Egbert - Egbert steadily improved over four years of promotion up the minor league ladder, and despite a sore elbow that limited his playing time in spring training last year, seemed due to show up in the majors soon enough. He never quite seemed ready to the Sox, though, and ended the year in AAA with a 4.65 ERA and a HR/9 rate of 1.04. A portion of that can likely be chalked up to bad luck and a hitter-friendly park, as his skills are still good. Keep an eye on if he gets called up in 2009--he'll be worth a try.

Jake Arrieta-He has blossomed into the Orioles best pitching prospect, not that there is a lot of competition mind you. He has control issues, but you have to like any pitcher that gets 120 K and 80 hits in 113 IP. As usual AA will tell us whether he is a worthy investment. In 2009 he won’t be ready but Dynasty leaguers can keep him on the radar.



Jeff Niemann- Yet another guy who can be a serviceable back end starter. There are probably 30 guys with rotation gigs that are no better than Niemann. He is not a future top end starter despite his pedigree but deep leaguers can do worse for that $1 at the end of the auction.

Joe Blanton – After being dealt to Philly, Blanton settled in to pitch fairly well. As expected, his HR/9 rose to a three-year high of 1.00 with the move to Philly. Even though he is almost guaranteed double-digit wins in 2009, his low K/9 rate (5.05) does not make him a viable fantasy option for mixed leaguers.


Jon Garland-A soft tossing innings eater, Garland is a chameleon pitcher that will perform roughly as good as his team does, while giving you league average production. Like many other pitchers of this type he has value in deep leagues or AL-only leagues, especially in the auction format, but only for a buck or two. If you play in a league with strict and tough innings minimums then go an extra buck.

Jorge de la Rosa-Though it doesn’t look like it on the surface, with a 4.96 ERA, de la Rosa was a hidden gem who should be expected to improve in 2009. His peripherals suggest he can have an ERA in the low fours, and if his increased K rate and decreased BB rate are for real then watch out. There is a lot of upside here for a late draft pick or a salary under $5.



Kevin Millwood-The pitching analog to the Texas hitters, he is a far better pitcher than he gets credit for. He will always strike out around 6.5 batters per nine with a K/BB ratio of a solid 2.5 or so and 2008 was no different. He has the skills to be a better pitcher and a change of scenery will make him a nice 2009 sleeper. He is 33 though so the end of the line may be around the corner.


Nick Adenhart-A terrible year in AAA puts his future prospects in question. He was always a bit overrated and his numbers never showed huge potential. He is till very young and has lots of time to develop but he is marginal right now even in Dynasty leagues

Scott Elbert-At one time he was considered a top lefty pitching prospect, his star has dimmed only slightly as he has some control struggles. But he still looks like he can be a useful pitcher, if only out of the pen. He does have an insane ability to miss bats and it remains to be seen if that will carry over to the majors; he has had a BA against below .200 at every stop in his career.


Wade Davis- Yet another pitcher, not as good as Price and in most organizations he would be a contender for the number one prospect spot. Not likely to be of significant value in 2009 a she still has command issues and his MLE ERA is over 4.00 but, like Price, has a potentially devastating combination of a groundball rate over 50% and a K rate over 9.00. It wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up being just as good as Price at his peak.

Wade LeBlanc-He is usually discussed as one of the Padres’ better prospects. He has a below average fastball but an above average changeup, and since he lets up a lot of flyballs he could have intermittent success in San Diego. But he looks like a fringy guy right now that is destined for the pen. Get used to reading that when you read about the Padres’ young pitchers. The optimist can look at his 121/40 K/BB split in 120 IP in AA and hope but since it is the product of a below average fastball he may struggle to get hitters out in the bigs. Players like this usually fail but sometimes they surprise us and he certainly has earned a chance for that surprise.


Will Inman-Inman performed surprisingly well in the AA Texas League with a 140/71 K/BB in 139 IP. He needs to get his control under control (forgive the pun) to be successful at the major league level but as a 21 year old in the Texas league one has to be encouraged. He wont be a star but he looks far better than most of the Padres’ young pitching prospects.

[Ericsson]易利信：電信業基本面長多; 大陸廠商步步進逼 易利信市佔不減反增

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN3/4725347.shtml

http://www.digitimes.com.tw/n/article.asp?id=0000122341_YAF43MAP3IOHDB2CK7QFA
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[文章]

易利信：電信業基本面長多

【經濟日報╱特派記者／八日青島電】 2009.02.09 03:11 am

易利信總裁暨執行長思文凱（Carl-Henric Svanberg）8日指出，遇到這波經濟危機，全球各行各業都受衝擊，但人們對手機通訊的需求並未減少，因此電信產業所受波及相對較小，長期基本面仍然樂觀。 易利信派出兩支隊伍參與Volvo環球帆船賽，思文凱與易利信副總裁洪凱申、大中華區總裁馬志鴻等，一起邀請亞洲區客戶和分析師到青島觀賞這場全球最長里程的帆船賽事，並在巴塞隆納電信展前，與客戶分享對電信市場最新展望，以及第四代行動通訊LTE、網路電視等新技術。 思文凱說，全球去年行動通訊用戶數已達40億戶，行動電話從大城市走入非洲等金字塔底層等新市場，在這波經濟危機中，電信業受到的影響最小，雖然民眾延長使用手機的時間，使採購手機量減少，但通信需求卻不會減少。 他表示，大陸去年發出三張3G執照，易利信除了發展WCDMA的3G技術，要在中國聯通拿下好成績，也會全力發展TD-SCDMA，在手機晶片上，易利信與意法半導體合資成立的ST易利信新公司已在大陸布局天碁公司，生產TD-SCDMA的手機晶片。 思文凱預期，一項通訊技術通常會有20年生命周期，GSM從1990年發展到去年已來到最高峰，WCDMA從2001年開始發展將會延續到2020年，WCDMA與大陸的TD是姐妹技術，易利信在TD上很快就會趕上大陸業者

大陸廠商步步進逼　易利信市佔不減反增

2009/02/09 - 網通 - 沈勤譽／青島

全球電信設備龍頭易利信(Ericsson)與大陸龍頭華為的競爭浮上檯面，雙方近日在全球多項指標性標案都共同瓜分訂單。易利信總裁暨執行長Carl-Henric Svanberg強調，華為在近10年的進步有目共睹，但易利信從2003年至今市佔率反而增加了10個百分點，顯示華為主要是從其他供應商增加市佔，易利信會持續鞏固並擴張自己的市場。

易利信身為全球電信設備龍頭，但面臨大陸廠商華為與中興通訊的激烈競爭，1月中國移動採購的WCDMA設備標案中，華為、易利信與中興分居前3大供應商，分別拿下2~3成訂單，北歐最大電信營運商TeliaSonera，則選擇易利信與華為為長程演進(LTE)系統供應商，另外在其他主要市場的3G或LTE標案中，易利信也常與大陸廠商瓜分訂單。

Svanberg對此強調，易利信在2003年的市佔率約為33~34%，現在已經提升到43~44%，反而增加了約10個百分點，至於華為在近10年有很大的進步與斬獲，但主要是從其他陷入困境的設備供應商取得市佔，易利信希望持續鞏固並擴展自己的市場，同時也會持續參與戰鬥。

他進一步說，電信產業的競爭一直沒有停過，從固網到行動網路、從多媒體到服務，產業持續在演進中，大約歷經了10次的技術變革，每次都產生不同的競爭格局，但易利信在每次的競爭中最終都能脫穎而出，持續成為領導者，我們無畏各種競爭。

對於金融海嘯與經濟衰退產生的衝擊，Svanberg認為，經濟情勢的變化對任何行業勢必都會帶來一定的影響，所幸電信產業與人類生活有相當密切的關係，因此電信市場的衝擊一定比其他行業相對較小，長期而言我們對電信產業仍相當樂觀。

他強調，2008年全球行動用戶突破40億戶，行動寬頻的成長也相當迅速，使得易利信營收成長11%，不僅高於市場平均水準，也是業界獲利最佳的公司，擁有現金高達45億美元，營運表現仍相當穩健

不過，易利信因應景氣變化，仍宣布了大規模的裁員與成本撙節計畫。Svanberg說，隨著電信產業往全IP的趨勢移轉，硬體與軟體的投入可望減少，加上考量外部經濟環境的變化，不得不未雨綢繆、強化成本控制與工作效率；不過，易利信員工從2003年的4.7萬人增為2008年底的8萬人，已有很大幅度的成長，通常上市公司只會宣布裁員人數、但不會宣布徵員人數，如果加上新招募的員工，到了2009年底易利信員工數可能不減反增。