[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://www.fantasypros911.com/player-profile-nelson-cruz.html
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[文章]
The label “Quad A” means a player excels at AAA but is not successful in the majors. This label starts to stick as a player nears or passes the age of 30 and with Cruz at 28 years old he is getting there. With better statistical analysis we can often find that these players are either not given enough chances in the majors or were playing over their talent in the minors. Some former examples in the majors now are Ryan Ludwick and Jack Cust.
Ignoring his short 8 games in 2005 with the Brewers, Cruz has 3 seasons of partial AB’s in the majors. Of those three years he only had more than 300 AB’s in 2007. This was a disappointing season and could be the reason many label him as a Quad-A player. He only hit 9 homers and had an average of .235. His strikeout rate was slightly higher and his BABIP of .299 seems normalized, but his minor league BABIP has been over .360 at AAA. With his surprising speed and power he should maintain a BABIP over .300 as he did in 2008 in 115 AB’s.
He had a large drop in contact on pitches in the zone that season as well. He only made contact with 79% of the pitches in the zone in 2007, but in 2006 and 2008 he was at 85%. Something was wrong with his swing in 2007 and he seemed to be pressing or injured. He did have nagging injuries in spring training with a tight hamstring and shin splints, but also was hit in the head by a Yovani Gallardo fastball. I don’t know if any of these caused him to change his plate approach, but it’s possible.
His power was also disappointing in 2007 as he had a HR/FB of only 8.9%. He improved on that in 2008 and had a HR/FB of 21.2%. He also hit 37 homers in AAA and showed his power had not gone away. This seems to show that all around he was not making good swings or good contact.
He also has surprising speed, as most “Quad A” players are just power bats. In his combined 500+ AB’s in the majors he has stolen 6 bases, but in 383 AB’s in AAA he stole 18 last year. This is something he will need to continue to work on to be successful stealing bases in the majors.
Cruz is a bit of a free swinger, but as much as Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn. He can take a walk as well and should continue to have a good OBP. He can hit 30+ homers, but with his threat to steal 15+ bases he is a true power/speed combination.
He has had an OPS over 1.120 in his past two years at AAA and at the major league level in 2008. This will normalize to an OPS just under .900 against major league pitching, which makes him top 20 OF in OPS.
The Texas Rangers are going to have a heavy hitting offense in 2009 and have several good table setters at the top. Cruz was announced as the Cleanup hitter this off-season to put a right-handed bat between lefties Josh Hamilton and Chris Davis. Hank Blalock and David Murphy are also lefties, so the need for the right-handed Cruz in the lineup is huge. This lineup with Hamilton and Kinsler at the top will give Cruz plenty of RBI chances.
He will also be hitting in Arlington in half his games. This should not only get him over 30 homers, but more than 100 RBI’s. He couldn’t ask for a much better opportunity this season and this might be his last chance as he is now 28 years old.
Nelson has the talent to be a Carlos Quentin type player in 2009. He should be able to maintain a slightly elevated BABIP, but nothing like the .388 he had in the majors last year. This should help him maintain an average over .280 though and be a solid five-category guy.
His current ADP is 229, but as the hype on his name continues we expect it to rise slowly. I would target him as a 3rd outfielder for now, but he should supply you with #1-2 stats.
