[Life]世界最大BT檔案分享網站 - The Pirate Bay侵權官司觀後感

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://mmdays.com/2009/03/23/tpb_lawsuit_2009/
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[文章]

這是上個月國外十分轟動的新聞。不過或許是台灣網友鮮少從這個網站抓檔，所以這個全球最大的BT檔案集散地的侵權官司，從2/16日開庭起，到3/3庭訊結束，竟沒有引起台灣媒體太多的注意，連網路上的討論也十分少見。

The Pirate Bay〈簡稱TPB〉是何方神聖？以下剪貼自我以前寫過的簡介〈圖片取自wikipedia〉：

The Pirate Bay(簡稱TPB)是當前世上最大的BT種子搜尋引擎兼Tracker集散地. 由於樹大招風, TPB一直以來都是正版唱片及電影業者的眼中釘肉中刺, 法院訴訟提告不斷, 詳細列表可以看The Pirate Bay自己的整理, 可真是洋洋灑灑一大串. 而唱片藝人深惡痛絕者有之(如前一陣子提告的Prince),也偶有一些藝人聲援P2P分享技術(如公開把唱片放在P2P分享網路上的Nine Inch Nails).

The Priate Bay目前由三位瑞典人經營, 打著反著作權(Anti-Copyright)的名號, 以廣告費維生. 他們在2006年中曾被瑞典警方掃蕩, 但聲勢卻不減反增. TPB今年年初才因為傳出有意買下Sealand而被人笑稱是想建立盜版王國. 不過有趣歸有趣, TPB身為當下世界最大的BT種子集散地, 企圖心可不是蓋的. 今年八月, TPB又取得另外一個前知名BT搜尋引擎: Supernova.org的網址, 打算讓這個地方復站. 而現在, 他們最新的動作, 竟然是回頭向正版廠商提出告訴!…〈詳見原文〉

TPB身為世界最大的BT檔案搜尋引擎，本來就容易惹上是非，加上TPB的管理團隊似乎也不是很低調，所以與唱片公司的攻防戰一直持續至今。而在今年，唱片公司一狀告上了瑞典法院，2月16日開庭當天，小小的法院湧進了來自世界各地的記者、支持者與反對者，甚至有導演把這一切都拍下來，打算做成紀錄片：

〈新聞圖片來源摘自Wired：Pirate Bay Trial: The Hottest Ticket in Stockholm〉

庭訊過程從2月16日到3月3日，目前正在等待4月17日陪審團的裁決出來。由於這是個全球矚目的案子，瑞典當地電視、電台不但全程轉播，當中雙方在法庭上的每一字每一句也都被放大檢視，只要誰說錯一句話，很可能就會變成隔天新聞標題。

〈新聞圖片來源摘自Wired：With Landmark Trial Half Over, Pirate Bay Crew Celebrates Early Victories〉

這個引起全球矚目的大事件，目前出庭的部分已經結束了。從目前的情況看來，TPB這邊似乎佔了上風。TPB甚至在媒體前狂傲的預測，他們會取得「Epic Win！〈史詩般的勝利〉」哇，真是有種。不過TPB敢說這些話，的確是有一些理由在的，事實上許多人也認為TPB的成員最後很可能會被判無罪。綜合我看到的一些報導，主因我認為有兩點：

1. 傳統唱片、電影公司，乃至檢察官，對於整個P2P檔案分享運作的認識仍然處在很粗淺的階段〈連Mega Byte與Mega Bit的差別都搞不清楚〉，因此在指控時許多陳述流於情緒化，或者訴諸道德，對於講究事實證據的法庭來說沒太多意義，甚至開庭第二天就把一半以上的指控撤銷；
2. P2P分享技術本身的中立性質，是The Pirate Bay的最佳護身符，畢竟TPB只是「告訴大家誰分享了什麼東西」的平台，什麼檔案要分享，決定權是握在上傳者手裡，平台經營者無權干涉。其實只要堅守這個立場，TPB幾乎是站在不敗之地。這個問題我們以前就討論過，詳見這篇

P2P技術需要被約束？

關於第二點，TPB的律師Samuelson更問了這樣的問題：

“I don’t think the prosecutor ever considered that such a case is not supposed to go to court,” Samuelson stated confidently. “It comes into conflict with basic Swedish criminal law. There is not a single law textbook that does not clearly state that in order to be an accomplice you have to be aware of the concrete main crime that you are supposed to facilitate.”

粗淺翻譯：「我不認為檢察官有想過這個案子根本不應該走上法庭。」Samuelson話語充滿自信。「這違反了一項很基本的瑞典法律。每一本法律書都清楚地寫明，共犯罪嫌要成立，罪犯必須要具體的知道自己要幫忙犯下的罪行是什麼。」

This was not the case here, he said. None of the defendants had any specific knowledge of the 33 copyright infringements charged in the case. “It is not enough, according to Swedish law, to have a general knowledge that crimes may be committed.”

「這案子並不是這樣。」他說。檢方指控的33項侵權事件裡，沒有一個被告是事先知情的。〈註：為了證明TPB有罪，檢方自己透過TPB下載了好些版權檔案回來，作為TPB犯罪的證明〉「根據瑞典法律，被告罪行是不足以成立的。」

–引述自Wired

不管最後結論如何，我想唱片公司的主管應該要了解到，過去美好的唱片市場是一去不復返了。IFPI總經理John Kennedy在法庭上宣稱，要不是免費的盜版流竄，人們會願意付費買下那些他們後來下載的所有歌曲。此話一出，全場轟然大笑。看來十年過去了，部分唱片公司高層主管仍然活在自己的小世界裡面。醒醒吧！這世界已經變了。抓了一個TPB，還有千千萬萬的TPB。唱片公司的問題是要如何適應消費者新的音樂習慣與價值觀，從中找尋新的商業模式，而不是等待P2P sharing機制有一天醒來全部死光，回到十幾年前唱片公司賺大錢的那個年代。

前幾天，公司來了一個澳洲同事。平日交換工作心得之餘，順口問起了對方的興趣是什麼。他的回答是看電影，不過因為工作太忙了，大多數時間都是下載到電腦上，有空在家自己看。

我說：對了，你都去哪裡下載電影？

澳洲朋友：當然是The Pirate Bay囉〈理所當然貌〉！

我：The Pirate Bay現在不是有官司？

澳洲朋友：擔心什麼，抓不到我們的。就算TPB倒了，以後還會有新的，大不了再換！

[Life]好命是一種生活態度

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://www.wretch.cc/blog/illyqueen/12389886
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[文章]

好命是一種生活態度

能夠當千金、名媛，就一定是「好命」嗎？

每天打開報章雜誌，我們總能看到很多名媛貴婦千金的頭銜不斷的出現，而且總是有很多新的名媛千金不斷出現考驗你的記憶力，於是她們成了最新的明星，她們的老公是誰、她們買了什麼新包包、她們都用什麼保養品...成了大家翻完八卦雜誌報紙茶餘飯後的話題。

於是你常看到她們登上雜誌封面、上電視廣告，她們有多美滿的家庭生活、她們永遠保養得宜比明星還要美麗，她們總是提著最新款的包包，穿上你不會唸的品牌衣服，她們讓許多女孩羨慕又嫉妒，希望自己也能變成她。於是千金和名媛成為最受歡迎的夢想、地位與職業，許多女孩看完她們完美生活的報導後，總是嘆了一口氣說：「唉，為什麼我的命沒她那麼好？」

老實說，我也跟一般的人一樣，看到那些令人羨慕又遙不可及的報導後，也真的很羨慕有些人可以過這樣種「好像想買什麼就買什麼」的生活（這時忍不住又很想表演「這個、那個通通包起來」的闊太氣勢，哈哈，但我只能在鹹酥雞或魯味攤表演這等闊氣啦），但是回頭想想，又覺得自己沒那個命，因為我是天生勞碌命，我這輩子的財富都是辛苦財，加上天生就當不慣被人疼的公主，人家對我好一點就好像我欠他幾百萬一樣。如果真的有老公要我不工作只要幫他花錢，我大概會得憂鬱症，然後跪下來跟他說：「拜託，讓我去打零工也好！」

大概每個人有每個人的命吧，我很羨慕有些人可以過這樣的生活，但是我知道自己不是這塊料。我喜歡流汗播種含淚收割的勞碌感（勞碌感這一詞好心酸啊），越勞碌越有存在感，這就是我的人生。我也喜歡收到人家送的名牌，但是那樣快樂的感覺卻沒有我辛苦工作好不容易買下來犒賞自己還要爽快、踏實，所以我早認清人各有命，我很羨慕她們，但我不嫉妒，也不想變成她們。因為，我從來不覺得自己的命不好。

我是一個非常不喜歡抱怨的人，老實說，我從來沒有跟別人抱怨過「我的命真的很不好」這件事，不管遇到什麼不好的事，甚至別人都覺得我很倒楣，我都不曾真的覺得很糟，甚至我常安慰那些替我不平的人說：「還好啊，我其實並不生氣耶！」、「沒什麼吧，小事一件啦，我沒放心上！」因為我覺得，人生不該浪費時間在生氣和抱怨，很多事情換個角度想其實人生就變的不一樣了，塞翁失馬焉知非福，你遇到的小人或許未來會成為你的貴人也不一定，人生本來就有很多考驗，浪費時間在抱怨，不如趕快跨越。

而且我一直覺得人的信念很重要，只要你一直覺得會怎樣，通常都會怎麼樣。覺得自己倒楣的人，很難有好運，因為就算有好事要發生，也會被他搞成壞事。覺得男友會劈腿的人，每天患得患失神經緊張，也會讓對方被你逼到劈腿。覺得自己很幸福的人，每天都會吸引到美好的人事物，覺得自己好命的人，通常命都不會太差。

因為，我覺得「好命」是一種心態、一種生活態度，只要相信自己好命，自然而然，我們會讓自己過得越來越好，越來越好運，越來越好命。

好命是一種正向的能量和態度，相信自己值得過好人生的人，才會懂得愛自己、讓自己更好，珍惜生命中美好的人事物，並有能力讓自己往好命的那方向邁進。如果連你自己都不相信自己能有好人生，誰還能幫你呢？

我很樂觀又知足，樂觀是我覺得不管發生什麼事，只要我用心、努力，最後的結果一定是好事。知足是不要一直想著自己缺少的，而要想自己擁有了多少。只要樂觀和知足，即使過著勞碌感的人生，我也很感激自己能有這麼多工作機會，雖然辛苦，但是我更應該珍惜自己可以擁有的。

我從不覺得自己命不好，那是因為我相信我有能力可以讓自己往好命的那條路努力。不管現在好不好，我的未來一定會更好。

會寫這篇文章，其實是來自我的朋友卉軒出版了一本新書《我愛千金生活》，我幫她寫了序，也讓我想寫這一篇文章。她是一位優秀的記者，她將採訪過的名媛千金故事集結成這一本書，讓我們看到更多不一樣的千金生活，雖然我們大部分的人都不是千金，但我們也可以從中學到那些千金的努力與面對的壓力和挑戰，其實，看了很多千金的故事，我真的很欽佩她們是很認真的生活、也很認真的從事自己的工作，雖然外面的人看她們總是很羨慕，但是我相信她們要面對的壓力不是我們一般人可以想像。很多事情，我們也只是看表面，有時候人們會覺得某些人很幸運、很好命，但是在幸運與好命的背後，其實是有更多旁人看不見的努力，這些千金也讓我們相信，她們的好命也是付出了很多努力。

看到她們的故事，讓我們也更懂得珍惜自己所擁有，而且認真的生活，另一方面也更懂得善待自己、愛自己，成為自己心目中的千金。在羨慕別人的同時，也要讓自己變的更好，學習別人的優點，而不是只是批評嫉妒，而從不讓自己進步。

當然，好命是一種生活態度，是指像我們一般中產階級不必煩惱下一頓飯在哪裡，還有能力靠自己養活自己，而我們並不是那些真正貧窮的人。比較起來，我們更要珍惜自己所擁有的幸福，甚至是生活中小小的幸福。

我常被朋友和我妹妹笑我是個很容易滿足的人，吃到好吃的東西、搭到有座位的捷運、或是很幸運的發現什麼東西、意外買到便宜的東西，我就會很興奮的一直講：「哇，我好幸福喔！」、「耶！真開心！」興奮到一直重複講到他們都會說：「你很誇張耶！」或許因為太容易知足又不喜歡抱怨，加上很難討厭人，所以我這種人活的還挺開心的每天笑嘻嘻。

我覺得自己好命，因為我很容易快樂、知足，也很容易因為小事情覺得自己很幸福。

我相信每個人都有自己不同的人生，我們不用去羨慕別人，有些飯碗不是你端的起，有些角色也不是你去演你就能打從心裡笑得開心。做自己，用自己的方式，努力的讓自己的生活變得更好，懂得善待自己，讓自己隨時處於「我好幸福」，即使只不過是吃到好吃的甜點蛋糕，你越懂得讓自己快樂，你就越好命。

誰說「好命」是別人給你的？是你有好父母、有好老公，有了「別人」就能打包票你一生好命、幸福？

我覺得「好命」不是靠別人給你，而是你有能力讓自己的命越來越好。

「好運」或許是天生的，但「好命」靠的還是你後天的努力。

就算我們不是千金名媛，但我們也要多向她們學習她們好的地方，她們努力、認真的地方（我覺得這本書裡的千金都有很多我們值得學習的地方唷），然後要讓自己成為更棒的女人。

我們不必跟別人比，只要跟自己比，我們瞭解自己的人生，並用自己的步伐努力前進。我們知道自己該走什麼樣的路，並且努力的讓自己的路變得更加寬廣、明亮。

好命是一種生活態度，因為相信自己會更好，而朝著夢想努力的女人，絕對會讓自己往好命的那一條路走，即使過程辛苦，必定流汗播種，微笑著含淚收割。

我喜歡當個勞碌感的人，因為越付出越讓我覺得自己富有。而我所擁有的不止是金錢，而是金錢買不到的意義。或許當個千金名媛可以擁有許多，我相信我擁有的愛與支持更令我覺得富足。（比方說是30萬的愛瑪仕包包和30萬個讀者的支持，我會選擇後者）我欣賞那些千金的努力，我也會學著讓自己更進步。

我很好命，我不只是好運，我更相信我能創造自己的命運。

Fantasy Notes

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
Fantasy 911
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[文章]

Marcus Thames- He has always had loads of power and also hits a ton of fly balls. He has just never been given a starting job from the outset as he simply does not get on base enough to offset the intriguing power. With injury prone OFers Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez ahead of him and Gary Sheffield DH'ing, it is not too hard to imagine Thames landing in a starting role again this season like he did for a time last year. However, this time he does not have Matt Joyce to steal at-bats away from him. In a full-season, he'd be a lock for 35 home runs and could nearly match Adam Dunn-type numbers.


Micah Hoffpauir- He is already 29 so he is no spring chicken (great cliché isn't it?!). He hit 25 home runs in just 290 at-bats at Triple-A in 2008, but that was already his third year there. Unlike the guys above him, Hoffpauir has actually made pretty decent contact in the minors over the last couple of years. He is set to back up Derrek Lee at first, which means playing time will be hard to come by; however, if he does find himself in a full-time role, he warrants an immediate pickup. Given his solid contact skills, I actually project him to hit .295, so unlike the others, he will contribute in homers without dragging down your batting average.


Jonny Gomes- He fell off the face of the planet after posting a .906 OPS in 2005 with the Rays and hitting 21 home runs in just 348 at-bats. His huge strikeout totals finally did him in and his BABIP has fluctuated all over the place, while his HR/FB ratio has remained steady over the last three seasons. He is likely to kill your batting average, but he hits a ton of fly balls in a home run friendly park. The problem- Jay Bruce, the man, the myth, the legend, stands between Gomes and his hopes at playing time. Maybe Bruce completely flops and gets sent down in May. Hey, you never know!


Joe Mather- Mather is competing for the third base job in STL during Troy Glaus' absence and he is the most intriguing candidate in fantasy leagues. He is going to be 27 this year so he is no prospect, but that simply means he is nearing his peak and it is an opportunity to receive those peak stats on our teams. Like Hoffpauir, he makes solid contact for a power hitter and he hit 29 home runs at Triple-A over the last two years in just 460 at-bats. His history of BABIPs in the minors suggests he will be below average in the majors and therefore will not help in batting average, but he hit 48% of his batted balls in the air, which is a recipe for gaudy home run totals. Given how fragile Troy Glaus is, there is no assurance of exactly when he will be back, so Mather could be a great end-game purchase in NL-Only leagues if he begins the season with the job.

A Closer Look at Howie Kendrick

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=1861
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[文章]

A Closer Look at Howie Kendrick

 His biggest detriment has been his ability to stay on the field, never allowing him to realize his full potential.

Last season he posted the following line:

340 At Bats
.306 Batting Average (104 Hits)
3 Home Runs
37 RBI
43 Runs
11 Stolen Bases
.333 On Base Percentage
.421 Slugging Percentage
.362 Batting Average on Balls in Play

 A .360 hitter in the minor leagues (in 1,540 AB), he’s posted a .306 average for his major league career, but that comes with questions.

He struck out 17.1% of the time last season versus a 3.4% walk rate.  For a player who is supposed to use his speed to set the table and fuel the offense, that is far from a promising number.  His OBP makes it tough for the Angels to even consider using him atop the order, hurting his potential to score runs (Bobby Abreu seems like a better fit for the #2 hole, hitting behind Chone Figgins).

Additionally, if he is going to continue his free-swinging ways, major league pitchers are simply going to stop throwing him strikes.  Granted, with his speed he can maintain a higher BABIP, but if he’s going to be chasing pitches out of the zone, that number could fall significantly.  That in turn will drop his average, something that would put a dent in his average.

Even with those concerns, there is reason to believe that he will continue to hit for a strong average.  Prior to the 2006 season, Baseball America said:

“Kendrick may be the best pure hitter in the minors. His swing is compact, balanced and easily repeated. He lets pitches get deep before centering them and driving them to all fields.”

Still, a little bit better plate discipline would go a long way.  Vladimir Guerrero, long known as one of the most free-swinging hitters in baseball, walked 8.6% of the time last season.  His 3.4% would’ve tied him for second worst in the league.

He showed power in the minor leagues, and not just in the Pacific Coast League.  Between Single & Double A in 2006 he hit a total of 19 HR.  Couple that with the speed we all know he possesses, and there’s no wonder why people were drooling over his 20/20 potential.

While the power hasn’t been there in the majors, it’s certainly possible that he starts to show a bit more at age 25 (he’ll turn 26 in July).  Over his career, he’s posted FB% of:

• 2006 - 32.6%
• 2007 - 29.7%
• 2008 - 26.0%

The declining trend is not a good sign and he would’ve been seventh worst in the league last season had he had enough AB to qualify.  While you don’t want to see him hitting the ball in the air 35-40% of the time, especially with that speed, I can easily see him get back to the number he posted in 2006.

As he’s aging, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see him increase his HR/FB rate as well, which was at just 4.1% last season.  Even if he could get that back up to 6% (he was at 6.1% in 2007), with increased fly balls he could become a 12-15 HR option at 2B.

Obviously, that type of prediction hinges on his ability to stay on the field.  His 92 games and 340 AB were career highs last season, which certainly doesn’t instill much confidence.  Sooner or later he has to get lucky and keep himself on the field though, doesn’t he?

I hope so, but I’m certainly not about to count on it.  If I were to end up with him on my fantasy roster, I’d make sure I got a very good back up, just in case.  It’s always good to be prepared.

With all that said, let’s take a look at what I’d project for him in 2009:

.304 (146-80), 12 HR, 51 RBI, 74 R, 18 SB, .348 BABIP, .335 OBP, .460 SLG

Considering he never walks, 500 AB puts him at about 120 games.  That means, while I expect him to be healthier then he has been, I’m expecting more missed time.  How can I not?

It’s not the 20/20 season fantasy owners lust for, but they certainly are usable numbers.  If he actually stays healthy for the entire season, he has the potential to significantly outperform these numbers, making him worth the gamble.  Unfortunately, it appears unlikely that he hits towards the top of the line-up, which will limit his value due to the lack of runs scored.

What does everyone else think?  Could Kendrick reach these numbers?  Is he someone you want to get?

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

[MLB]Sean Marshall & Horacio Ramirez

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://waiverwire.blogspot.com/2009/02/sean-marshall-2009.html
http://waiverwire.blogspot.com/2009/03/horacio-ramirez-2009.html

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[文章]

Sean Marshall 2009

Sean Marshall has a good chance of winning the last spot in the Chicago Cubs rotation for 2009. He also has a good chance of being one of the better #5 starters in the major leagues this year, and a nice late round bargain in relatively deep fantasy leagues. Marshall's strikeout rate improved drastically last year, going from a K/9 of 5.8 the previous year to 8.1. That was in 65.1 innings, which is enough that a change of that magnitude has to be somewhat meaningful. His control remained about the same. His groundball rate got substantially worse, dropping from 48.2% to 41.2% His increased strikeout rate may have occurred as the result of a change in approach that was achieved at the expense of his groundball rate, or it may have simply been improvement in a young pitcher, with the lower groundball rate being a fluke. If it was the latter, then Marshall has the chance to be an excellent starting pitcher this year. If not, he's still worth owning in deep leagues.

Horacio Ramirez 2009

According to sources, Horacio Ramirez will be given the Royals #4 starter role, leaving Luke Hochevar and Brian Bannister to fight it out for the last spot in their rotation for 2009. Not that the others are much better, but I really wonder what Ramirez has ever done to deserve this free pass. In 656.2 major league innings, he's struck out 301 and walked 251. That's terrible. He does tend to keep the ball on the ground, with a very good (but not spectacular) groundball rate that usually is in the vicinity of 50%. However, even that comes with a question mark, as Ramirez has tended to allow more home runs than would be expected given his groundball rate. Ramirez is 29 years old, so that's another reason for the Royals not to give him a spot in the rotation - either of the players he'll be taking the spot from are younger, and presumably more likely to show some improvement. The silver lining in all of this is that we can take advantage of the Royals poor decision making, and look to target Ramirez' opponents in daily leagues such as Draftbug.