[Ericsson]易利信：電信業基本面長多; 大陸廠商步步進逼 易利信市佔不減反增

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN3/4725347.shtml

http://www.digitimes.com.tw/n/article.asp?id=0000122341_YAF43MAP3IOHDB2CK7QFA
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[文章]

易利信：電信業基本面長多

【經濟日報╱特派記者／八日青島電】 2009.02.09 03:11 am

易利信總裁暨執行長思文凱（Carl-Henric Svanberg）8日指出，遇到這波經濟危機，全球各行各業都受衝擊，但人們對手機通訊的需求並未減少，因此電信產業所受波及相對較小，長期基本面仍然樂觀。 易利信派出兩支隊伍參與Volvo環球帆船賽，思文凱與易利信副總裁洪凱申、大中華區總裁馬志鴻等，一起邀請亞洲區客戶和分析師到青島觀賞這場全球最長里程的帆船賽事，並在巴塞隆納電信展前，與客戶分享對電信市場最新展望，以及第四代行動通訊LTE、網路電視等新技術。 思文凱說，全球去年行動通訊用戶數已達40億戶，行動電話從大城市走入非洲等金字塔底層等新市場，在這波經濟危機中，電信業受到的影響最小，雖然民眾延長使用手機的時間，使採購手機量減少，但通信需求卻不會減少。 他表示，大陸去年發出三張3G執照，易利信除了發展WCDMA的3G技術，要在中國聯通拿下好成績，也會全力發展TD-SCDMA，在手機晶片上，易利信與意法半導體合資成立的ST易利信新公司已在大陸布局天碁公司，生產TD-SCDMA的手機晶片。 思文凱預期，一項通訊技術通常會有20年生命周期，GSM從1990年發展到去年已來到最高峰，WCDMA從2001年開始發展將會延續到2020年，WCDMA與大陸的TD是姐妹技術，易利信在TD上很快就會趕上大陸業者

大陸廠商步步進逼　易利信市佔不減反增

2009/02/09 - 網通 - 沈勤譽／青島

全球電信設備龍頭易利信(Ericsson)與大陸龍頭華為的競爭浮上檯面，雙方近日在全球多項指標性標案都共同瓜分訂單。易利信總裁暨執行長Carl-Henric Svanberg強調，華為在近10年的進步有目共睹，但易利信從2003年至今市佔率反而增加了10個百分點，顯示華為主要是從其他供應商增加市佔，易利信會持續鞏固並擴張自己的市場。

易利信身為全球電信設備龍頭，但面臨大陸廠商華為與中興通訊的激烈競爭，1月中國移動採購的WCDMA設備標案中，華為、易利信與中興分居前3大供應商，分別拿下2~3成訂單，北歐最大電信營運商TeliaSonera，則選擇易利信與華為為長程演進(LTE)系統供應商，另外在其他主要市場的3G或LTE標案中，易利信也常與大陸廠商瓜分訂單。

Svanberg對此強調，易利信在2003年的市佔率約為33~34%，現在已經提升到43~44%，反而增加了約10個百分點，至於華為在近10年有很大的進步與斬獲，但主要是從其他陷入困境的設備供應商取得市佔，易利信希望持續鞏固並擴展自己的市場，同時也會持續參與戰鬥。

他進一步說，電信產業的競爭一直沒有停過，從固網到行動網路、從多媒體到服務，產業持續在演進中，大約歷經了10次的技術變革，每次都產生不同的競爭格局，但易利信在每次的競爭中最終都能脫穎而出，持續成為領導者，我們無畏各種競爭。

對於金融海嘯與經濟衰退產生的衝擊，Svanberg認為，經濟情勢的變化對任何行業勢必都會帶來一定的影響，所幸電信產業與人類生活有相當密切的關係，因此電信市場的衝擊一定比其他行業相對較小，長期而言我們對電信產業仍相當樂觀。

他強調，2008年全球行動用戶突破40億戶，行動寬頻的成長也相當迅速，使得易利信營收成長11%，不僅高於市場平均水準，也是業界獲利最佳的公司，擁有現金高達45億美元，營運表現仍相當穩健

不過，易利信因應景氣變化，仍宣布了大規模的裁員與成本撙節計畫。Svanberg說，隨著電信產業往全IP的趨勢移轉，硬體與軟體的投入可望減少，加上考量外部經濟環境的變化，不得不未雨綢繆、強化成本控制與工作效率；不過，易利信員工從2003年的4.7萬人增為2008年底的8萬人，已有很大幅度的成長，通常上市公司只會宣布裁員人數、但不會宣布徵員人數，如果加上新招募的員工，到了2009年底易利信員工數可能不減反增。

[MLB]RP Notes

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://baseball.fantasypros911.com/

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[文章]

Bill Bray- Bray posted a 2.87 ERA in 47 innings and 63 appearances, struck out more than a batter per inning and still has the highest ceiling of any of the left-handed relief prospects the Reds have on hand, which is not saying much. Bray won't be on anyone's radar come draft day, but he could emerge as a strong set-up man for Francisco Cordero.


Blaine Boyer- It’s a shock to see a pitcher with this skill set put up a 5.88 ERA in 72 innings. Blame the terrible 57% strand rate for the inflated ERA, which should rebound to the 70% range. Excellent strikeout and ground ball rates, he makes for a fine, cheap LIMA choice.


Bobby Jenks - The polar bear of the South Side notched 30 saves despite missing a few weeks with a back injury, but the scary part of the story is that his strikeout rate evaporated like the polar ice cap. The 5.55 K/9 rate is frighteningly low, and down for the second year in a row from his 10.33 mark in 2006. Jenks is still an elite groundball pitcher, inducing 57.6% of batted balls to the ground in 2008, but that won't sustain him if he doesn't get his strikeouts back. Be a little cautious; he may be sporting a hidden injury.



Bobby Parnell – He has a cannon for an arm, so the real question is if they team will use him as a starter or out of the pen. If he starts, he could be a real sleeper to help your team in strikeouts. If he relieves, he should have plenty of value in formats that utilize middle relievers. Either way, it’s worth paying attention to him in Spring Training and see if he makes the club or not.


Brandon League – After a forgettable year in 2007, League rebounded with a solid season in 2008, posting a 2.18 ERA. It’s amazing what happens to your numbers when you go from a BABIP of .410 to .277 in one season. League has an overpowering fastball but still has trouble locating it consistently for strikes. A walk rate of 4.09/9 and a FIP nearly two full runs higher than his ERA add up to a pitcher to avoid in 2009.


Chad Cordero-You will have to watch him in the spring. He is only 26 and can come back from a lost season due to shoulder surgery. He was on a three year decline from 2005 through 2007 so he has a lot of work to do to convince people that he is ready for a big job. He is a $1 filler guy at this point.


Cla Meredith-He was a big disappointment in 2008 as he struggled with his BABIP. He is probably the single most extreme groundball pitcher in baseball, with a 67% ground ball rate. This penalizes him in the BABIP category as ground balls are more likely to be hits than fly balls and the quality of your defense is the most important factor in his success. He walked far more batters than he did in 2006 and 2007 so if he can return to a BB rate under 2.0 he can be a $10 pitcher even if he doesn’t get saves.


Craig Hansen-If he were not a former first round pick he would be selling insurance. Hansen was rushed to the majors and his career likely ruined, though it is questionable whether he would ever have made it in the majors. That thwapping sound is the sound of his breaking stuff hitting the backstop.


Felipe Paulino- He was a hot prospect before missing most of 2008 with a nerve injury. Keep him on your radar if you are in deep keeper leagues.


Joe Nelson- Didn't pitch in 2005 or 2007 so do you gamble on drafting him in another odd year in 2009? That is the ultimate question all fantasy owners are contemplating. Well, that and what happened to Patrick DiCaprio's hair. Excellent strikeout rate, but that's basically it in terms of underlying skills for Nelson. He moves to Tampa Bay, where he joins the mix at the backend of the bullpen. If Troy Percival struggles with injuries, could he get a chance to close games? It's certainly possible, making him worth paying attention to.




Jonathan Meloan- Brought over from LA, where the Dodgers attempted to make him a starter. With the state of the Tribe’s bullpen he may get a shot right out of the spring. He features a low 90s fastball and a devastating slider; which can be a strong combination as a closer. As of this writing he is probably the best bullpen pitcher they have and he hasn’t even had a trial yet. In keeper leagues you should get him now while the getting is good.


Jose Ascanio- Could see a bigger role in ‘09 as he showed signs of excellence. Jose has the proverbial Big Fastball but as with most young pitchers he has trouble with the BB. At 23 years old he is developing into a solid reliever.


Jose Mijares - He pitched a total of 36.2 innings at three levels of the minors in 2008, racking up a 10.06 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. His September call-up was good enough for 5 strikeouts, no walks, and one earned run over 10.1 innings, but he wasn't quite so good in 2007 or 2006, which means the Twins will probably wait to see more from him before calling him up in 2009. That said, he could be a very good reliever.

Jose Veras – He used a mid-90s fastball and a curve that can be 20 miles slower to rack up strikeouts in 2008. He notched 9.83 SO/9 and had a strand rate of 82.2 percent. He needs to get his walks under control (4.53 per 9) but he’s an effective setup man who might be a closer for a team one day.


Manny Delcarmen – The local kid had a great season in relief for the Red Sox in 2008. A product of West Roxbury High School, Delcarmen throws in the mid 90s and has a strong curve, which helped him to an 8.72 SO/9 ratio. A groundball pitcher, he allowed just 0.61 HR/9 last season. Delcarmen had a nifty 1.12 WHIP and even picked up two saves last year, but with Papelbon in the pen his chances of a promotion to closer in 2009 are just about zero.



Mike Adams-He was once a top prospect felled by injuries that made a nice return in 2008. Like many pitchers he rode a short term sample size fluke into prominence, as he had an 82% LOB% in 2008. But unlike the Brandon Lyons of the world he has very good skills with the ability to strike out more than 10 batters per nine against 2.6 BB/9. He has a nice future in the pen if he stays healthy and is more likely to succeed as a closer if he gets a chance than Bell.



Pat Neshek - He sat out most of 2008 with an elbow injury, and wasn't back to throwing on the mound--even for practice--until the end of the season. It's a crying shame, because he has the skills to be one of the best set-up men in the majors--think Heath Bell, Carlos Marmol, or Dan Wheeler, but better. If he looks healthy in Spring Training, give him a try.


Peter Moylan- After missing almost the entire 2008 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May, Moylan could be ready by Opening Day in 2009. He possesses an excellent skill set and makes for a nice LIMA option, assuming no ill effects from the surgery.


Roy Corcoran-He is the type of pitcher than can slime his way into a closer’s role and do a decent job until a better option comes along. One of the most extreme groundball pitchers around, he posted a 70% (!) GB rate in 2008. His K rate plummeted in the majors but could easily shoot backup as he gets comfortable. He is nothing more than a player to keep an eye on, but with that extreme groundball approach he can get very lucky one year and move up the food chain.


Ryan Madson – The to Lidge has really settled into his role within the Phillies bullpen. Madson, who sports the best change-up on the team, has become more effective with the increased velocity on his fastball. A solid K/BB ratio of 2.91, HR/9 of 0.65, and a 51% ground ball rate make Madson the leading candidate for holds in 2009.


Santiago Casilla - He blazed through the first month of the season with an ERA under 1, but an elbow injury and luck caught up with him, bringing him to 3.93 for the season with a 1.59 WHIP and .357 BABIP. He has the ground ball skills and strikeout power to do much better, but it depends a lot on the wellness of his arm--if he has to throw his fastball more often than his slider, as he did last year, he'll lose his greatest asset.


Steve Shell-Another of the very few pleasant surprises for Washington in 2008. Though he was used as a mop up man, he put up a nice 2.16 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. A .220 BABIP and 86% LOB rate are clearly not sustainable, so he will not be worth that $1 if you are speculating on back up closers.


Takashi Saito - He still has elite level skills with a K rate above 11 and a walk rate of 3.5, and he has shown an ability to strand runners in the 78% range, so he is still an excellent pitcher. He's on the market after being non-tendered by the Dodgers and with a surplus of potential closers available, it really is possible that he ends up as a set-up man to start out '09.



Tony Pena- Hailed as the D-Backs’ future closer without actually having the skill set to back it up, Pena’s luck reverted in 2008 and his ERA rose back above 4. For all the talk about his great stuff, he’s only managed K/9 rates in the mid-6’s in each of his 3 seasons. Don’t draft him thinking he has a good chance at the closer role if Qualls disappoints, as he’s nothing more than a mediocre middle reliever at this point.