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His biggest detriment has been his ability to stay on the field, never allowing him to realize his full potential.
Last season he posted the following line:
340 At Bats
.306 Batting Average (104 Hits)
3 Home Runs
37 RBI
43 Runs
11 Stolen Bases
.333 On Base Percentage
.421 Slugging Percentage
.362 Batting Average on Balls in Play
A .360 hitter in the minor leagues (in 1,540 AB), he’s posted a .306 average for his major league career, but that comes with questions.
He struck out 17.1% of the time last season versus a 3.4% walk rate. For a player who is supposed to use his speed to set the table and fuel the offense, that is far from a promising number. His OBP makes it tough for the Angels to even consider using him atop the order, hurting his potential to score runs (Bobby Abreu seems like a better fit for the #2 hole, hitting behind Chone Figgins).
Additionally, if he is going to continue his free-swinging ways, major league pitchers are simply going to stop throwing him strikes. Granted, with his speed he can maintain a higher BABIP, but if he’s going to be chasing pitches out of the zone, that number could fall significantly. That in turn will drop his average, something that would put a dent in his average.
Even with those concerns, there is reason to believe that he will continue to hit for a strong average. Prior to the 2006 season, Baseball America said:
“Kendrick may be the best pure hitter in the minors. His swing is compact, balanced and easily repeated. He lets pitches get deep before centering them and driving them to all fields.”
Still, a little bit better plate discipline would go a long way. Vladimir Guerrero, long known as one of the most free-swinging hitters in baseball, walked 8.6% of the time last season. His 3.4% would’ve tied him for second worst in the league.
He showed power in the minor leagues, and not just in the Pacific Coast League. Between Single & Double A in 2006 he hit a total of 19 HR. Couple that with the speed we all know he possesses, and there’s no wonder why people were drooling over his 20/20 potential.
While the power hasn’t been there in the majors, it’s certainly possible that he starts to show a bit more at age 25 (he’ll turn 26 in July). Over his career, he’s posted FB% of:
- 2006 - 32.6%
- 2007 - 29.7%
- 2008 - 26.0%
The declining trend is not a good sign and he would’ve been seventh worst in the league last season had he had enough AB to qualify. While you don’t want to see him hitting the ball in the air 35-40% of the time, especially with that speed, I can easily see him get back to the number he posted in 2006.
As he’s aging, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see him increase his HR/FB rate as well, which was at just 4.1% last season. Even if he could get that back up to 6% (he was at 6.1% in 2007), with increased fly balls he could become a 12-15 HR option at 2B.
Obviously, that type of prediction hinges on his ability to stay on the field. His 92 games and 340 AB were career highs last season, which certainly doesn’t instill much confidence. Sooner or later he has to get lucky and keep himself on the field though, doesn’t he?
I hope so, but I’m certainly not about to count on it. If I were to end up with him on my fantasy roster, I’d make sure I got a very good back up, just in case. It’s always good to be prepared.
With all that said, let’s take a look at what I’d project for him in 2009:
.304 (146-80), 12 HR, 51 RBI, 74 R, 18 SB, .348 BABIP, .335 OBP, .460 SLG
Considering he never walks, 500 AB puts him at about 120 games. That means, while I expect him to be healthier then he has been, I’m expecting more missed time. How can I not?
It’s not the 20/20 season fantasy owners lust for, but they certainly are usable numbers. If he actually stays healthy for the entire season, he has the potential to significantly outperform these numbers, making him worth the gamble. Unfortunately, it appears unlikely that he hits towards the top of the line-up, which will limit his value due to the lack of runs scored.
What does everyone else think? Could Kendrick reach these numbers? Is he someone you want to get?
Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.
