MLB_Infield of Sleepers

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://www.thefantasybaseballhalloffame.com/infield-of-sleepers.html
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[文章]

C- Kelly Shoppach - Cleveland Indians - Due to the return of Victor Martinez many people are ignoring Kelly Shoppach. This is a mistake and one that you can take advantage of.

A much better defensive catcher than Martinez, Shoppach proved last season he can hit major league pitching with overall numbers of .261-22 HR-55 RBI in112 games. But he really showed me something in the 55 games he played after the all-star break going .273-14-39.

Meanwhile, Martinez showed a total lack of power, both before and after his injury, hitting just 2 HR's in the 73 games he played. Keep an eye on both players this spring. If Martinez continues to have problems, it would make no sense at all for the Indians to keep Shoppach out of the lineup.

1B - Conor Jackson - Arizona Diamondbacks - Here’s a guy you can get much later in any draft than Dodger first baseman James Loney and get similar production. While neither has shown the kind of power you would like to see from a first baseman, both seem to be growing into steady hitters. A .300 batting average should be the norm for years to come with 90 plus RBI for both. Power should come as they learn and grow as major league hitters.

Here’s a look at their 2008 fantasy numbers:

Avg HR RBI R SB
Conor Jackson .300 12 75 87 10
James Loney .289 13 90 66 7

The numbers are very similar but you can wait twice as long before drafting Jackson. Last season Mock Draft Central had Loney’s ADP at 110, while Jackson exactly doubled that number at 220. In the early mocks this off-season not much has changed as Loney is at 98 and Jackson at 203.

It is better to get a big power hitting first baseman with Jackson serving as my corner infielder. If you miss out on one of the big guns you can live with Jackson at 1B. The fact that Jackson is also eligible at OF makes him even more appealing and he is on my radar in every 2009 draft.

2B - Alexi Casilla - Minnesota Twins - He was off to a great start last season but all that changed on July 29 when he suffered a torn ligament in his right thumb. The injury caused him to miss 20 games and when he returned his hitting was never quite the same.

G Avg R HR RBI SB
Before injury 62 .313 38 4 39 4
After injury 57 .246 20 3 11 3

Things got so bad that on August 29 he was moved down in the lineup from second to eighth. Casilla never used the injury as an excuse, but the feeling is that with his team was in a pennant race, he may have come back too soon and the injury never fully healed.

Looking ahead to the upcoming season with a healed thumb he should reclaim the two spot in the order. With the speedy Denard Span or Carlos Gomez hitting ahead of him he will have some RBI opportunities. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau will hit behind him which means Casilla will have plenty of runs scored opportunities. Throw in about dozen stolen bases and you can find some great value here at the end of your draft.

SS - Cristian Guzman - Washington Nationals - After missing all of the 2006 season because of shoulder surgery and all but 46 games in 2007 after tearing a hamstring on opening day, then a thumb ligament later on, Guzman managed to stay relatively healthy in 2008. Playing in 138 games he hit .316, scored 77 runs, drove in 55 with nine home runs and six stolen bases. Guzman was named the Nationals MVP by both his manager Manny Acta and MLB.com; Guzman was also the teams sole representative in the 2008 All-Star game.

While his injury history is a bit of a concern, you can draft him so late in a draft that the risk isn’t big at all. No worries about playing time here as he signed a contact extension through 2010 and is an everyday, top of the order shortstop.

3B - Troy Glaus - St. Louis Cardinals - His first season in Cardinal red was a rousing success as Glaus hit .270 with 27 home runs, 99 runs batted in while scoring 62 times. With numbers like that you would think he would go fairly quick in drafts, but that is not the case. He is considered an injury risk to most people but has managed to play in at least 149 games in three of the last four seasons. The only time he failed to reach that mark was 2007 when he played in 115 games where he managed to still hit 20 homers.

The other three seasons his power numbers have been great, averaging 34 homers and 100 runs batted in. He is almost never drafted as a Top 15 third baseman, but can give you Top 10 value. A low risk, high reward pick for sure.

MiLB_Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://www.fantasypros911.com/trevor-cahill-and-brett-anderson-as-good-as-price-and-kershaw.html

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[文章]

First, we start with Cahill. His career minor league GB% is 59% and it was nearly 62% in 2008. So he’s firmly at the top of the heap along with the Lowe’s and Webb’s of the world in terms of inducing grounders. He’s also shown impressive strikeout ability, posting a K/9 of at least 10 at three levels, before a drop-off to 8 upon his promotion to Double-A this year. His MLE in K/9 combining his High-A and Double-A seasons peg him for a 7.4 rate, which means that if he had pitched at the MLB-level this year, he would have recorded a 7.4 K/9, all else equal. So a 62% groundball rate and a 7.4 K/9? You know who that sounds like? None other than Brandon Webb who posted a 64% groundball rate and 7.3 K/9. Wow.

The only chink in the armor so far has been control. Cahill has not posted a BB/9 below 3.2 at any level, and his walk rate jumped to 4.6 at Double-A, not a great sign. However, BB/9 is the easiest of the three skills to improve upon, so this is not such bad news. All in all, Cahill posted an MLE FIP of 3.68 this year, and even in his weaker Double-A showing, still put up a 4.56 FIP, which would be near league average in the AL and respectable for a 20-year old. When you combine such a skill set with a forgiving ballpark and a typically good defense, you have a guy who could post ERAs just as good as more hyped and flashy pitchers such as David Price and Clayton Kershaw.

From a statistical standpoint, Brett Anderson looks even better than Cahill. He’s also a major groundball pitcher, although a little less so than Cahill, clocking in at a 57% rate for his career. He’s also shown excellent strikeout ability, posting nothing less than a 9.2 K/9. However, unlike Cahill who declined at Double-A, Anderson actually improved. He dominated in his 31 innings there by posting an 11 K/9, while only seeing a slight up tick in his walk rate. His full-season MLE K/9 was better than Cahill’s at 7.8, and spiked to 8.7 at Double-A. There is not one pitcher in baseball that combines such groundball inducing ability and strikeout ability like Anderson’s MLEs. Only Felix Hernandez has, but his GB% suspiciously dropped to 52% this year.

he biggest difference between Cahill and Anderson right now is control. Whereas the walks have been a bit of a problem for Cahill, they have not been for Anderson. The 2.6 BB/9 he posted at Double-A was his highest at any level. Putting everything together, his MLE FIP was an impressive 3.80 in 2008. We do have to remember, however, that the MLE FIPs Ii’ve been discussing do not adjust the HR/F ratios. Anderson’s was higher than Cahill’s which explains why his FIP was lower. We clearly don’t have enough evidence to say that Cahill is better at preventing home runs on fly balls.

Upon further glance at Anderson’s stats, it becomes apparent why his name typically hasn’t been thrown around as one of the top pitching prospects in the game, until maybe 2009. He has suffered inflated BABIPs at every stop he’s made. Amazingly, his BABIP has never been lower than .327. This has clearly increased his ERAs and could be blamed for ERAs over 4.00 at High-A in both 2007 and 2008. Those analysts that put together prospect ranking lists focusing on ERA as their statistical support would have undeservedly undervalued him.

[MLB]Closer Report

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://www.fantasypros911.com/skimming-the-closer-pool-al-east.html

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[文章]

ampa Bay Rays

• The Incumbent: Troy Percival
  

• Likelihood to hold job:

• How they did last year: 2-1, 4.53 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 28 SV, 38 K/27 BB

  Last season was the first year Percival appeared in 50 games since 2004 with the Angels. Percival was actually a pleasant surprise for the Rays, providing veteran presence on a young team and solidifying the back end of the bullpen for most of the season. Despite an ERA of 4.53, Percival was actually fortunate because his FB% of 66.7 and FIP was 5.87.

• What to expect this year: Do not get too comfortable. This job could be lost before the season even gets under way. Percival has a long history of injuries and his job is contingent upon his ability to recover from offseason back surgery. Percival will also turn 40 next year. If he manages to stay healthy for an entire season, the Rays are good enough to give him 40 opportunities, but a high ERA and WHIP plus a low strikeout total is more than likely.

• In the ‘Pen: Dan Wheeler, Joe Nelson

  Dan Wheeler: Shaky at times, but worth an add if he is given the job. Wheeler saved 13 of 18 chances last year and has 38 career saves. If he takes or wins the job over Percival, his numbers would be more fantasy friendly, as he strikes out a better rate and should have an ERA somewhere in the 3’s.

  Joe Nelson: Just signed by the Rays, Nelson should help bolster the Rays bullpen in 2009. If Percival gets hurt, Nelson is nice insurance. Nelson was 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 54 innings.

Toronto Blue Jays

• The Incumbent: B.J. Ryan

• Likelihood to hold job:

• How they did last year: 2-4, 2.95 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 32 SV, 58 K/28 BB

  Ryan missed the first two weeks of last season while still recovering from elbow surgery that shelved him for almost the entire 2007 season. He was not the Ryan of old, certainly, but he still was a serviceable closer, blowing only four saves. However, the days of 100 strikeouts (2005 and 2006) might be a distant memory.

• What to expect this year: Ryan should be healthy to begin the season, unlike last year, which is a good thing. Assuming he remains healthy, he should pick up a few more saves and strikeouts than last year. Expect 35+ saves and 70+ strikeouts again.

• In the ‘Pen: Jeremy Accardo, Scott Downs

  Jeremy Accardo: The Blue Jays closer in 2007 while Ryan was on the shelf is always a good option in the ‘pen. Accardo converted 30 out of 35 saves for the Jays in 2007, posting a 2.14 ERA. If Ryan were to go down, Accardo should move into the closer role again and be owned in all formats.
  

  Scott Downs: Mostly a setup man, Downs is available if Ryan gets hurt and Accardo cannot get it done. Downs had five saves last year with a 1.78 ERA.

MLB-Brad Penny

[心得]

這隻不優

[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://waiverwire.blogspot.com/2008/12/brad-penny-2009.html
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[文章]

Brad Penny in 2009 will be a player to stay away from at all costs. Not only will he meet some of the criteria...he'll meet just about all of the criteria:

-Already overrated.
-Changing leagues from NL to AL
-Going from pitchers' park to hitters' park
-Declining strikeout rate (from 7.1 in 2006 to 4.6 in 2008)
-Increasing walk rate (from 2.1 in 2005 to 3.8 in 2008)
-Injury issues

Some people may recommend him as a 'sleeper' who is likely to rebound "if healthy", and win a lot of games because of Boston's offense. Don't be fooled. Even if he is healthy and pitches as well as he did in 2006 and 2007, he's going to struggle in the much tougher American League and pitching half his games in Boston.

MLB-Fantasy Baseball: Bill James Hitter Projections-NL Edition

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://www.faketeams.com/2008/12/31/703198/fantasy-baseball-bill-jame
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[文章]

• Garrett Atkins-22 HR, 102 RBI-where did the power go?
• Emilio Bonafacio-27 SBs-could be a cheap/late round source or steals.
• Jay Bruce-35 HR, 90 RBI, 12 SBs, .891 OPS
• Emmanuel Burriss-29 SBs-another cheap steals guy
• Stephen Drew-19 HR, 66 RBI-seems a little low to me
• Alcides Escobar-6 HR, 62 RBI, 33 SBs
• Jesus Flores- 12 HR, 80 RBI-in Washington??
• Rafael Furcal- 9 HR, 44 RBI, 23 SBs-that's it??
• Andruw Jones-16 HR, 50 RBI-really???
• Matt Kemp-19 HR, 80 RBI, 32 SBs-no increase in power?
• Kevin Kouzmanoff-25 HR, 94 RBI-nice!
• Andy Laroche-18 HR, 71 RBI, .401 SLG.-where's the power?
• Cameron Maybin-16 HR, 58 RBI, 32 SBs-rookie of the year?
• Andrew McCutchen-10 HR, 53 RBI, 35 SBs
• Daniel Murphy-14 HR, 74 RBI, 14 SBs, .849 OPS-where did he come from?
• Colby Rasmus-18 HR, 54 RBI, 22 SBs
• Pablo Sandoval-17 HR, 103 RBI, .320 Avg.-WOW-big time RBI numbers-catcher eligible?
• Justin Upton-22 HR, 68 RBI, 6 SBs-who's the better Upton?
• Joey Votto-30 HR, 102 RBI, 13 SBs-better than Bruce?
• Jayson Werth-25 HR, 89 RBI, 21 SBs-All-Star??

[MiLB]The Fantasy Man's Top 20 Minor League Prospects of 2009

[心得]

很多我想都沒想過的人
這份list大概是僅給 2009年有可能上來的人
不過...moustastak可能會上來嗎?

[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://www.fantasybaseballexpress.com/2008/12/fantasy-mans-top-20-minor-league.html
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[文章]

1. David Price, SP, TB - 23 - Price is a rarity in baseball maturity. Think Tim Lincecum. Think Joba Chamberlain. Think LaBron James. Price is awesome, plain and simple. You saw what he could do when he closed out Game 7 of the ALCS against the Red Sox. Price is 6'6" 225lbs with tantalizing stuff and fantastic command. As it stands, Price will fit in at the end of the rotation in Tampa and probably give you about 180 IP. Be prepared for him to be shut down in September possibly if he pulls a Lincecum-like rookie year but it looks as if he'll start the year in the rotation barring any spring set backs. If you want Price on your fantasy team, expect to pay about $8-$12 depending on hype in your league and expect to select him by round 10 in a 12 team mixed league draft if you really want him!

2. Matt Wieters, C, BAL - 22 - Between A and AA, Wieters hit .355/27/91 with a .454OBP and a 1.054OPS. What makes Wieters more intriguing is the 76K with 82BB all in 437AB. Those are Bugs Bunny numbers. The Orioles traded Ramon Hernandez to Cincinnati leaving the door wide open for Wieters. Assuming he experiences some growing pains but continues to be an OBP guy, I think it's safe to say with 450+ AB, Wieters can be a .280/20/80 guy in his first season barring any set backs. Draft him by round 13 if you're targeting him in snake drafts. He's a $5-$8 player in auction drafts.

3. Cameron Maybin, OF, FLA - 21 - Some have already said that Maybin could be the Hanley Ramirez of the Outfield this year. I seriously doubt that but Maybin does have some extreme potential. What we don't know yet however is what Maybin's ceiling really is. Maybin is 6'4" 200lbs, so he has the frame to hit 20+HR eventually, maybe even 30+ or 40 + as he fills out, we don't know yet. What we like about Maybin now, is his speed! Think Carlos Gomez with better on base skills and the same K rate. They are clones in size. In 2008, the Marlins, who acquired Maybin in a deal for Miguel Cabrera in the off season, kept Maybin down in the minors for the entire season. In AA, Maybin batted .277 with 13 HR and 21 SB along with a .375 OBP thanks to his 60 BB. What's alarming however is the 124 K in 390AB. Yikes! Naturally, Maybin's speed promotes more doubles and triples making him a potential points league or H2H leagues dream. As of now, Maybin plans to compete for the CF job for 2009. From early reports, it seems that it's not if Maybin will make the team or not, it's whether or not Maybin will lead off or bat at the bottom of the lineup. Hanley Ramirez hasn't show he can be a #3 hitter yet and with Uggla already entrenched in the #2 spot, it's possible Maybin gets pushed down to accomodate Hanley. Personally, I think Hanley should be and will be batting 3rd, and Maybin will get the nod at lead off! If that happens, I'm looking at a .270/12HR/30+SB type of season with 500+ AB from Maybin. Draft in or after the 16th round as a 4th or 5th OF and steal for $2-$4 in the auction!

4. Kila Ka'aihue, 1B, KC - 25 - Kila blasted his way through AA and AAA in 2008 putting up Daffy Duck numbers like .313/37HR/99RBI/.452OBP/1.086OPS with 104BB and only 66K. This guy is an OBP/OPS hog and reminds you of a potential Ryan Howard type. He's a big dude at 6'3" 230lbs. and could get the nod at 1B or DH in 2009 despite the log jam with Billy Butler and Mike Jacobs. Kila is a little older at 25 but there's not much use for this guy in AAA. Definitely a player with extreme power potential and on base skills to make an impact in 2009. If the Royals are smart, they'll start this guy at 1B, Billy Butler at DH, and use Mike Jacobs off the bench.

5. Travis Snider, OF, TOR - 21 - Snider had a nice showing after being called up by the Blue Jays last season as he hit .301/2HR/13RBI in 73 AB. He also had 23 K but the dude was only 20 years old. Between High A and AAA last season, Snider batted .275/23HR/91RBI/61BB/153K in 484AB. Yes, the K's are quite alarming but if he has a chance to make the team out of spring training, you'll have to suffer the growing pains with Snider. He'll have immediate 20+HR power and with 400+AB, can probably knock in 75+RBI if he gets consistent playing time. The 61 BB in the minors last year is a great indicator that there is better things to come, especially in the OBP department. Grab this guy for a buck or at the end of your snake draft and stash on that bench for a bigger second half. He'll probably start slow, but he had loads of upside!

6. Max Ramirez, C, TEX - 24 - Ramirez came out of nowhere to post some insane numbers between AA and AAA as a catcher batting .347/19/57 with 69K, 42BB, a .439OBP and a 1.067OPS in 285AB. The walks and the high OBP potential make up for the K's but Ramirez has 20+HR power in that catcher spot. The question is.... will he have a full time job coming out of the spring? If the Rangers can find a way to trade Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Hank Blalock, Ramirez could definitely get a shot at either C or DH. He'll be battling Taylor Teagarden for that spot. My prediction is that Ramirez wins over Teagarden if Saltalamacchia and Blalock both stay.

7. Matt LaPorta, 1B, CLE - 24 - LaPorta batted .279/22/74 with a .386 OBP in 362 in AA (Cleveland and San Diego) as he was the cernterpiece in the C.C. Sabathia trade. LaPorta also played on the U.S. Olympic team in '08. LaPorta will provide a fair share of walks and K's but I'm still trying to decide if he's an Evan Longoria type or a Connor Jackson type. The jury is still out. I have a feeling LaPorta will start the year in AAA but certainly be a mid-season call up. Great player to grab at the end of your draft and stash. He's a player that could be drafted late by a manager or might be saved for the waiver wire. Keep an eye on the hype this spring.


8. Tommy Hanson, SP, ATL - 22 - Hanson is a monster at 6'6" 210lbs. He put himself on the map in 2008 when he threw a 14-K No Hitter for Double A Mississippi. At that point in the season, Hanson only brought his ERA down to 4.32. By the end of 2008, Hanson's line was 11-5, 2.41ERA, 0.99WHIP, 163K in 138IP. Those are awesome numbers between High A and Double A. Hanson has a real chance to make the Atlanta rotation out of spring training and is a great guy to take a flier on! The question is.... do you think Hanson can beat out a guy like Charlie Morton for that 5th spot based on last years numbers? I do.

9. Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT - 22 - McCutchen was great in AAA last season batting .283/9HR/32SB/.372OBP/only 87K with 68BB in 512AB. That's a sweet season for a guy who could probably start in CF right now. Nate McLouth is currently your starting CF but I wouldn't mind seeing Pittsburgh shift McLouth to LF to make room for the future in McCutchen. Or, better yet, why doesn't Pittsburgh pack it in like usual and trade McLouth to a winner and then make room for McCutchen. Either way, McCutchen will get a chance to play in 2009. He has a great batting eye, keeps the K's to a minimum and has 30+SB speed. Throw in 15HR and you maybe have a Shane Victorino type but 3 inches taller.

10. Taylor Teagarden, C, TEX - 25 - Teagarden hit 6 HR in 47 AB after being called up last season while batting .319 in that span. In the minors, Teagarden only hit .211 in 2008 with 9 HR in 246 AB. However, in 2007, TT hit .300/27HR in 394 AB. When you look at the minor league numbers the past few years, they are not all that intriguing. Yes, TT has some power and showed it off in his 47 AB, but he strikes out a ton. In 756 AB in his minor league career, he has 249 K. Throw on top of that the competition for 3B, 1B, C, and DH between Teagarden, Max Ramirez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Hank Blalcok, and Chris Davis, someone is going to get left behind, and despite what other experts think, I feel that it will be Teagarden. Unless a move is made, i.e. Saltalamacchia to Boston or Hank Blalock to SF, I think Teagarden starts the year in the minors. If a move is made, Teagraden makes a great #2 catcher with upside at the end of the draft.

11. Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM - 20 - This guy is the pride and joy of the Mets farm system. No matter what, the Mets won't include Martinez in a trade. Somehow, the Mets kept him out of the Johan Santana deal and so far in this off-season, the Mets have kept him out again. I think they're going to go with some combination of Carlos Beltran, Ryan Church, Josh Reed, Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis in the outfield with Beltran and Church as the mainstays while the other guys hold the fort for Martinez to mature. Martinez possesses a fantastic power/speed combo as he had 8HR and 6SB in 352AB. Those numbers don't jump off the page at you but Martinez is only 20 but he missed some time last year with some injury. Martinez probably won't make the team out of spring training but could be a mid season call up if A. the Mets are decimated with injury or B. Martinez absolutely tears up AA.

12. Angel Salome, C, MIL - 22 - A young solid contact hitting catcher with some power could push Jason Kendall for playing time by midseason or 2010. In AA Huntsville, Salome batted .360,13HR,83RBI,3SB,.414OBP with only 57K and 33BB in 367AB. This is a guy to watch, especially if he hits in AAA. You probably don't need to stash him because he's not really on the radar, well, except for mine. Keep this guy on the back-burner as he may become useful either by midseason or for 2010.

13. Jess Todd, SP, STL - 22 - Todd blew up in the minors in 2008 pitching at all three levels and posting a combined line of 2.88ERA/1.03WHIP/136K/42BB in 153IP. Throw in that he only gave up 16 total HR, held batters to a .213BA, and has a K per 9 rate of 8. The Cardinals rotation looks set at the moment, but here is a guy who could start the year in the bullpen and be that 6th starter. We'll see Todd at some point in 2009 with a chance to crack the rotation with an injury. There is already talk that Chris Carpenter might not be ready to start the season and that's the opportunity Todd needs who word is, could probably be the #3 started right now behind Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter!

14. Neftali Feliz, SP, TEX - 20 - Between Low A and AA last season, Feliz produced a line of 2.69ERA/1/10WHIP/153K in 127IP. Wait, what? 153 K in 127IP?? That's right! This guy is a flame thrower, that of the 100MPH club. 106K in 82IP in Low A and 47K in 45IP in AA. Not bad for a guy no one has ever heard of. What I love best is his opportunity to crack the rotation at some point in 2009. I mean,look at this competition.... Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Matt Harrison, Brandon McCarthy, Dustin Nippert, Kason Gabbard, Eric Hurley, Luis Mendoza, and Scott Feldman. It's almost laughable.....

15. Matt Gamel, 3B, MIL - 23 - Gamel has Ryan Braun like hitting potential. In 2008, Gamel batted .325/20/99/.392OBP/6SB in 529AB between AA and AAA. There is talk that Mat Gamel can make the team out of the spring but I think he's more of a mid-season call up as he'd have to beat out Bill Hall and Mike Lamb. The real problem is his defense, which was the same reason why Ryan Braun didn't make the team out of Spring Training in 2007.

16. Kyle Blanks, 1B, SD - 22 - Blanks has power potential and has proved it in the minors thus far but he's blocked by Adrian Gonzalez. What I like here is that the rest of the Padres offense is dismal outside of Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley. I'm thinking Blanks could make a switch to RF possibly as an option to get him in the lineup. Otherwise, maybe the Padres can trade him in the Jake Peavy deal where he'll get some playing time. In 2007 A Ball, Blanks hit .301/24HR/100RBI/11SB/.380OBP and only 98K with 44BB in 465AB. Then, in 2008 in AA, Blanks hit .325/20HR/107RBI/5SB/.404OBP and only 94 K with 51BB in 492AB. As you can see, Blanks performed better at the next level (AA) while decreasing his K's and increasing his BB with about 30 more AB. I like that potential. I'm confident we'll see this bat somewhere in late 2009 and right now no one is talking about him!

17. Colby Rasmus, OF, STL - 22 - Rasmus is one of the most talented prospects in the Cardinals farm system, but last years poor performance in the minors might have dropped Rasmus down a notch. Still, at 22, the talent is there as is the upside and a quality spring will put Rasmus back on the map and even more so if the Cardinals trade Rick Ankiel either before the season starts or at the July deadline. Ankiel is playing for a new contract this year which could open a spot for Rasmus. Rasmus is a Power/Speed guy, potential 20/20 but at this point, might only be a .275 type hitter as he whiffs a lot. Rasmus is a guy you draft in the last round or spend a buck on and stash as he has the talent to be called up and perform immediately.

18. Wade Davis, SP, TB - 23 - Davis is the next top pitching prospect in line for the Rays. If by chance David Price ends up in the bullpen, Davis would be a candidate to get that 5th spot. Otherwise, he's next in line after Price. Last season between AA and AAA Davis produced a combined 3.47ERA/1.30WHIP/136K in 160IP. The numbers are inflated a bit as his AA stint was only mediocre while the 53IP in AAA were stellar. Davis has nasty stuff, stands in a 6'5" 220lbs., and looks like a K/IP type of pitcher. Keep an eye in spring training to get a sense on whether to draft late or save for a waiver wire pick up. I'd recommend a last round flier and stash on a deep bench because he'll see time in late 2009.

19. J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR - Arencibia is 23, was a 1st round pick and in two minor league seasons (2007 in A and 2008 in AA), he batted .298/27/105 in 510AB. However, Arencibia has totaled only 101 K's but with only 18 BB and a .322 OBP in those two seasons, so there is much to work on. This is a guy you grab for a buck though and stash on the bench in deep leagues until July or August a la Matt Weiters or Max Ramirez of 2008. This is a guy we might be talking about for 2010!

20. Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC - 22 - Batted .272/21HR/71RBI/8SB/86K/44BB in 496AB. He can play SS or 3B and those numbers remind me of an Evan Longoria type. These are Low A numbers so there a good chance he'll start the season in High A or AA but has a great chance to be called up in September and explode. He's a highly touted prospect who gets pushed to the side a bit because he's with Kansas City, but if he gets SS eligibility, he'll become even more of a hot commodity as a prospect to watch for 2010.

On the Bubble:
Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT - 22 - Alvarez was a top pick in the 2008 draft but some say he's ready for the bigs right now! The Padres still have Andy LaRoche and prospect Neil Walker above Alvarez on the depth charts but a good spring and hot start in the minors could shoot Alvarez up the charts. Keep an eye on his progress in the spring. His estimated time of arrival with a good showing in the minors in 2009 is 2010!

[MLB]Chris Perez

[心得]



[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://waiverwire.blogspot.com/2009/01/chris-perez-2009.html
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As of today, Chris Perez is the Cardinals closer for 2009. However, there's a good chance that the Cardinals will end up signing a proven closer such as Trevor Hoffman or Takashi Saito between now and opening day. Would they be making a mistake to pass up the opportunity to sign a free agent, and let Perez keep the job?

The short answer is 'yes'. Perez simply doesn't have the control to be consistently successful at this point in his career. He walked 22 batters in 41.2 innings (while strikout out 42), and his minor league numbers suggest that his control may actually be a little worse than that. In addition, he allows a lot of flyballs (38.7% groundball rate). He is only 23 years old, so there's plenty of time for improvement, but at this point in Perez' career, St. Louis shouldn't be relying too heavily on him. If they do allow him to remain as their closer going into the season, keep an eye on the rest of their bullpen to see who might replace Perez when he falters.

[MLB]Brian Fuentes

[心得]
Brian Fuentes ... Rank大幅提升的new CL

唉 我的arredondo :(

[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://waiverwire.blogspot.com/2009/01/brian-fuentes-2009.html
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Now that Brian Fuentes has been signed to close for the Angels in 2009, the Shields vs. Arredondo argument can be put to rest. They'll both be used to set up Fuentes, who should be an able replacement for Francisco Rodriguez. Fuentes had arguably the best year of his career in 2008, strikout out 12.4 batters per nine innings, while walking only 3.3. He does allow too many flyballs (32.6% groundball rate), but if he repeats those numbers he stands a good chance of outperforming K-Rod this year. Even if he reverts to something more in line with the rest of his career (say 10.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9), he'll be excellent. While the league change may cause some to expect a drop off in performance, I don't think that will be the case for two reasons. First of all, he'll escape from Coors Field, to a more favorable home park. And second of all, changing leagues has much less impact on relievers than on starters, since they rarely get to pitch to other pitchers anyway.

[MLB]Kevin Slowey

[心得]
作者看好Kevin Slowey

projection :

188.0 IP, 14 W, 4.02 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 131 K (6.27 K/9), 30 BB (1.44 BB/9)

[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=1346
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A strong Triple A season in 2007 led to people’s high hopes for Kevin Slowey, when he went 10-5 with a 1.89 ERA over 133.2 innings. After he was recalled, he posted a 4.73 ERA over 66.2 innings, but maybe he was just tiring down the stretch. In 2006 he had thrown 148.2 innings between Single & Double A, so it was quite a hefty jump.

Those who ignored the falloff and focused on his early ‘07 promise were rewarded for their gamble as he posted the following line:

12 Wins
160.1 Innings
3.99 ERA
1.15 WHIP
123 Strikeouts (6.90 K/9)
24 Walks (1.35 BB/9)
.297 BABIP

After just 1 start he was placed on the DL, not returning until May 8, which was why he pitched so few innings. The WHIP is the number that has to jump out at you, and the truth of the matter is that it is absolutely repeatable. It’s not like he had an excessively low BABIP, as it put him on par with the likes of Brandon Webb, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him duplicate it. The walk rate was very similar to what he had been doing throughout his career, even in his less then stellar first season (1.49). He is the type of pitcher who will significantly help you in WHIP, certainly adding to his value.

The strikeouts aren’t going to be there, and I could actually see a slight drop-off this season as opposed to an improvement. At Triple A in ‘07 his K/9 was 7.20, right on par with his rate for last season, but a lot of hitters he was also facing for the first time. It would not be surprising to see hitters making better contact, now that they have experience against him. He’s just not the type of pitcher who is going to blow you away.

Even with the great WHIP, he proved to be susceptible to the long ball, giving up 1.23 HR/9 last season, which contributed to his ERA being where it was. Unless he can get that in order, the ERA is not going to be stellar. He also pitches in the AL, which is another disadvantage for him. Basically, when you put it all together, an ERA right around the same range as last season should be expected.

Is he going to be a winning pitcher? The Twins have the potential to be a contender in the AL Central, so I could easily see an improvement over the 12 wins he posted last season, but like we always say, don’t draft a pitcher looking for W’s. You really just never know.

So, with all that said, let’s take a look at my projection for him for 2009:

188.0 IP, 14 W, 4.02 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 131 K (6.27 K/9), 30 BB (1.44 BB/9)

I know people want to see him projected as taking the next step, but I honestly just don’t see it. He’s a control pitcher that is not going to blow away many hitters, while taking a hit with the long ball. Would it surprise me if he bettered the ERA I’m projecting, not at all, but I wouldn’t look for him to be around 3.00. I’d think 3.80 or so would be a best-case scenario for a projection.

The WHIP is for real, however, which is where his value rests. It makes him a pitcher worth using in all formats as a late round pick to fill out your staff.