2009年1月20日 星期二

[Ericsson]CEO letter January 21, 2009

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
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Dear colleagues,

Today we announce our result for the fourth quarter and full year 2008. We make this announcement ahead of time again since our result is significantly higher than market expectations. We have therefore agreed with the stock exchange to make the announcement today.

We can look back at a solid performance in 2008. Sales grew by 11 %, our margins have steadily improved and our financial position remains strong. This is obviously the result of tremendous work done by everybody in the company and I would like to take the opportunity to say thank you to all of you.

So far, we have seen only limited effects in our industry from the global financial crisis, except from the handset market that is seriously affected. In general the operators have healthy financial positions, networks are fairly loaded and there is a strong traffic growth. It would, however, be unreasonable to believe that we will remain unaffected also in 2009. We see a lot of uncertainties in consumer spend and how operators will act.

As you all know, we started to save costs one year ago and we have actually exceeded our cost saving target for the year, with savings of SEK 6.5 billion launched already. We stand strong and we have the opportunity to come out of this turmoil even stronger than we were going into it, while many of our competitors are struggling. But that means that we have to do even more.

Therefore we will continue with cost savings also this year, targeting savings of 10 BSEK. We will achieve this by leveraging synergies between our different technologies and by taking advantage of opportunities in the transformation to all-IP. We will also reduce the number of software platforms and increase the re-use of hardware. In addition, we will consolidate our activities to fewer sites and move certain activities to low-cost countries. This will also result in staff reduction of some 5,000 people globally.

The savings activities will result in a more efficient way of working and we should therefore be able to achieve these savings while keeping our strategy and unique capabilities intact.

Remember what we have said so many times before. We need strong profitability in order to control our own destiny. We have improved our margins in 2008 and we have to relentlessly continue to perfect our performance while staying close to our customers.

These are tough times, but in tough times the strong can get stronger. I know that we have what it takes to take advantage of the current situation to further extend our leadership and outperform competition.

Best regards,

Carl-Henric Svanberg

President and CEO


[MLB]Bryan Anderson (CF)

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090116&content_id=3747222&vkey=news_cws&fext=.jsp&c_id=cws

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CHICAGO -- Brian Anderson looks at the White Sox roster in its current form and realizes there's a center-field job there to be won for the upcoming 2009 season.

His name consistently has been mentioned by general manager Ken Williams and manager Ozzie Guillen during the past few months to be one of those in the mix for this particular everyday responsibility. But Anderson doesn't have to be one of the men running the team to realize his chances to start aren't quite as likely as they would seem.

The White Sox don't currently have a veteran leadoff hitter in their projected lineup, not necessarily a necessity, but certainly more than a luxury in Guillen's desired attack. With a healthy Jerry Owens fitting these job requirements, the fleet-footed leadoff hitter literally appears to have the leg up on both Anderson and DeWayne Wise in rounding out the White Sox outfield.

That dynamic leaves a calm and collected Anderson wondering if he truly will get a fair shot to capture this position.

"I don't really know what 'fair shot' means," Anderson told MLB.com, taking a break from a session during his second consecutive offseason working out at Fitness Quest 10, with Todd Durkin and his staff, in San Diego. "You can't look it up in the dictionary, and 'fair shot' actually is kind of a cliché.

"Going into Spring Training, we don't have a leadoff hitter and Jerry is considered to be a leadoff hitter. It's math, not magic. It's going to be tough for me, going in [to Spring Training] and knowing that if I play clearly above the rest, my only reward is a platoon situation. It's not something I want."

Before this tale continues, it should be noted that Anderson did not express this sentiment out of anger. He did not pound his fist and demand a trade or talk about mistreatment from the White Sox.

Simply put, Anderson has changed since a similar conversation with MLB.com early last offseason, during which his frustration manifested itself in more caustic terms. Anderson entered Spring Training in 2008 as a long shot to even make the team, but given the at-bats by Guillen during Cactus League action, Anderson earned one of the final roster spots.

By the time the 2008 season came to a close, Anderson had become an everyday player -- in usually two or three innings at a time -- as a defensive replacement for Ken Griffey, Jr. His attitude was better. There was an understanding of his role, and although Anderson hit .232 with eight home runs and 26 RBIs over 181 at-bats, his offensive approach was greatly improved from his .192 showing during the first half of 2006 -- his last starting chance.

"Believe me, I agree with the whole idea in sports of 'What have you done for me lately?'" Anderson said. "I mock myself every chance I can from what happened at the start of 2006. It was sad, and a dude off the street could have done as well as I did at the beginning.

"Then again, you shouldn't hold against someone something that happened three years ago in half of a season. You can't hold a negative over someone's head three years down the road."

Aside from what Anderson believes, does his starting argument actually make sense in the context of the White Sox roster?

Owens certainly would fall into the category of a prototype leadoff hitter, and by Williams' account, he was acquired in February 2005, to eventually replace Scott Podsednik. Owens looked on track to assume this position entering Spring Training during 2008, until a groin injury cut short his playing time in Arizona.

Guillen has said that he doesn't need a Rickey Henderson or Vince Coleman-type player at the top of the order. He values on-base percentage as much as flat-out speed and stolen-base potential.

If Anderson truly beats out Owens in Glendale, Ariz., and Williams makes no other moves in regard to the top of the order, the only other logical leadoff option would be the winner of the second base battle between Brent Lillibridge and Chris Getz. Using one of those two, though, would place a slight extra burden upon a rookie.

Moving Anderson back into regular action would add further power supply to the offense, with Anderson's potential to hit 20-to-25 home runs over 500 at-bats. Anderson's greatest asset is defense, with his 98-game errorless streak and overall capabilities matching up with even the American League's most decorated Gold Glove-winning outfielders. White Sox fans vividly remember Anderson's flat out dive and sprawling catch of Alexi Casilla's sinking liner to end the one-game playoff against the Twins and clinch the AL Central title.

Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton and Bobby Jenks stand out as the only true strikeout pitchers on the White Sox staff, meaning most White Sox pitchers make the opposition put the ball in play and places defense at a premium. That strong pitching, strong defense and just enough hitting theory equaled a World Series title in 2005.

Of course, the White Sox also had Podsednik creating havoc for much of the 2005 campaign. Anderson appreciates the value held by Owens and not only considers him a good friend but also a high-quality performer. Anderson simply is looking for that elusive fair chance, whether it's with the White Sox or somewhere else.

"My goal is to stick with the team, be loyal and help out in any way I can, but I know Kenny Williams and Ozzie understand," Anderson said. "That might mean I have to go to another team to start fresh. I wouldn't be mad about that.

"Nothing against guys who back up or spot start. If that's my role with the White Sox, I'm ready to do it again. But at 26 or 27, I'm just not ready to be a role player or come off the bench. Nobody is ready to do that at my age."

[MLB]

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://www.fantasypros911.com/has-elvis-andrus-become-a-sleeper-option.html

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The rumors are running rampant, with Michael Young agreeing to play 3B for the Rangers this season, as to who the Rangers will use as the SS. Will they sign a veteran to fill the role? Will they use someone else on the roster? Will the team turn the job over to Elvis Andrus, a player considered to be one of the best infield prospects in all of baseball?

He’s better known for his abilities in the field, despite a load of errors last season, so should fantasy owners be drooling over his potential to help or should they simply pass on the 20-year old (he turns 21 in August) if he is indeed given the job? There is no doubting his blazing speed, having stolen 54 bases last season at Double-A following a 2007 where he stole a total of 40 bases across two levels of Single-A.

The problem is, his benefits for owners may stop right there. He has just 12 career HR in the minor leagues in 1,410 AB. It’s not like he’s piling up the doubles with the power being projected down the line. He has just 66 career two-baggers, so don’t look for that to come around any time soon, if ever.

He batted just .295 last season, and that came with a BABIP of .357. With his speed it certainly is not out of the question that he can maintain a higher number there, as long as he can keep the ball on the ground. If he starts putting the ball in the air, he’s going to get himself into a lot of trouble.

It would not be surprising to see him struggle, especially considering the jump he is asked to make. Don’t expect a .300 average, with .250-.260 a very realistic number. I’d love to say that he’s going to hit .280 or .290, but I can’t do it, not given the numbers he posted last season.

Carlos Gomez and his .258 average with 33 SB seems like the perfect comparison. Andrus doesn’t walk an excessive amount (7.3% BB% last season), much like Gomez. He strikes out a bit more then you’d like for a player like him (18.9% K% last season), much like Gomez. He has little to no power, much like Gomez.

I like Andrus' potential just as much as anyone, but 2009 is going to be a learning process, a chance for him to grow. I wouldn't recommend taking the gamble on him unless you are in need of speed because that's about all he's likely to offer

[Ericsson]低價是電信設備商勝出聯通WCDMA招標的關鍵

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:


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中國聯通WCDMA設備招標,中興暫獲第一。業內人士指出,從以往其它兩家電信運營商招標經驗看,在技術差別不大情況下,低價將是競標勝出的關鍵因素。設備商以低價打開市場,憑借運營商大規模採購累積利潤。

中國聯通的WCDMA設備商務招標會在近日舉行。此次招標會共包括30個省區市,參與競標的主要廠商包括愛立信、華為、諾基亞西門子、阿爾卡特朗訊和中興“五雄”。中國聯通首先開始最關鍵的WCDMA無線設備的商務招標,核心網稍後開始。聯通採取一次招標、分批次唱標的方法,使設備商競爭更趨激烈。

競標會最終開出13個省市區的競標結果,在WCDMA上最具備優勢的中外雙雄華為和愛立信在第一批8個省級區域的競爭中顆粒無收,中興則打入全部8個省級市場。在第二批的競爭中,中興又拿下兩個區域,暫時名列第一。

申銀萬國通信行業分析師方璐認為,低價是電信設備商勝出聯通WCDMA的關鍵。從08年中國電信CDMA和中國移動TD-SCDMA的招標經驗看,價格最低者均中標占有率最高。如CDMA招標中,華為積極進攻,報價最低,中標占有率26%;TD-SCDMA招標中,大唐報價最低,目前總占有率37%。

中興現有WCDMA網路的部署規模稍遜愛立信、華為和諾基亞西門子,市場普遍預期其在招標過程中占有率會次於這三家,占有率不超過15%,但中興為實現占有率上的突破,率先報出低於競爭對手的價格。據了解,招標會上,一開始佔據優勢的愛立信和華為憑借技術的領先地位,雙雙報出高價,約每載扇6萬至7萬,而中興3.6萬左右,巨大的價格差異讓希望降低成本的聯通產生了傾斜。方璐預計中興此次斬獲可能超出15%的市場最高預期。對於中興,市場占有率應比價格更重要,因WCDMA業務是公司短板,若在中國這個全球最大的WCDMA市場實現突破,必會對其在海外WCDMA市場佈局構成強有力支撐。

對電信設備商如何權衡低價格和低利潤之間的關係,銀河證券通信行業分析師王國平指出,電信設備商在招標過程中爆出的超低價,並不能使其在短期內獲利,但因電信運營商採購量較大,設備商主要靠走量,一旦規模效應體現出來,利潤自然得以累積。所以,盈利之前,關鍵就要獲得市場占有率,至此也不難解釋為何設備商價格戰競爭白熱化了。

專家預測,隨著設備供應商間為爭奪3G地盤的競爭越加激烈,國內設備商在2至3年內從3G建設中獲利已不大可能。世華財訊分析師認為,WCDMA是幾個3G標準中技術最成熟,故這幾大設備商間的差別不大。招標會綜合考慮現有格局、技術、價格、服務、用戶關係等等,但在技術差別不大的情況下,價格就成為十分關鍵的因素。

(鄧擎 撰稿)

[Finance]克魯曼專欄》新巫毒經濟登場 小心

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://www.wretch.cc/blog/chunkaiw/17954263
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[文章]

相信減稅有奇效的巫毒經濟學已褪流行,且被排除在文明論述之外。供給面學說的狂熱信徒只剩怪胎、假內行和共和黨人。

但近來新聞報導顯示許多動見觀瞻的人,包括聯邦準備理事會官員、金管官員,即將上任的歐巴馬政府官員可能也在內,已成為一種新巫毒的忠實信徒,相信舉行複雜的金融儀式,就能讓已經不行的行庫起死回生。

要解釋這碼事,我來說說一家虛構銀行的處境,我稱為「高譚集團」或簡稱高譚(按:Gotham是英格蘭傳說和童話中的愚人村) 。

帳面上,高譚有2兆美元資產和1.9兆美元負債,它的淨值是1000 億美元。但它的資產有很大部分,比如說房貸抵押債券和其他毒資產值4000億美元,假使這家銀行設法出售這些資產,可能賣不了2000 億美元。

所以高譚是家「僵屍銀行」,仍在營運,但實質上已破產。它的股票並非完全一文不值,它市值還有200億美元,但全然建立在政府會紓困解救其股東的希望上。

為何政府要對高譚紓困?因為它是金融體系的核心要角。各界任由雷曼公司倒閉後,金融市場凍結,有好幾星期全球經濟在崩垮邊緣搖搖欲墜。由於我們不希望舊事重演,因此高譚一定得繼續發揮作用。但怎樣才能讓它繼續發揮作用?

這個嘛,政府可以給高譚幾千億美元,就足以恢復其償付能力。但這當然是給高譚現在的股東送大禮,也等於鼓勵他們日後拚命不顧風險。即使如此,這分大禮的可能性讓高譚現在的股價獲得支撐。

比較好的方法是拿出政府在1980年代末期處理僵屍存款、貸款的方法:接管已無生意的銀行,解散股東。接下來政府把銀行壞帳轉移給特殊機構「資產清理信託公司」,政府清償足夠的銀行債務,讓銀行有償付能力,再把整頓過的銀行賣給新的所有人。

然而目前各方意見顯示,這兩種方式政策制定者都無意採用。據報導,他們傾向妥協,即把毒資產從民營行庫的資產負債表移到類似資產清理信託公司的公有「壞帳行庫」或「整合銀行」,但不先接管銀行。

美國聯邦存款保險公司董事長拜爾女士最近嘗試說明這種方法如何發揮功效:「整合銀行會以合理價格買下資產。」但何謂「合理價格」?

就我舉的例子,高譚集團沒有償付能力,因為其帳面上的4000億美元毒資產實際只值2000億美元。政府買下毒資產使高譚恢復償付能力的唯一途徑是支付比私人買家願意出的價高得多。

現在也許私人買家不願支付有毒資產的實際價值:拜爾女士說:「我們目前尚未就某些這類資產種類訂定合理價格。」但政府該聲稱比市場更清楚毒資產值多少錢嗎?還有,真的可能付「合理價格」(不管這是什麼意思)就足以讓高譚恢復償付能力嗎?

我懷疑可能政策制定者正準備試圖放長線釣大魚:政策看似清理了存款和貸款,但實際上無異犧牲納稅人而送給銀行股東大禮,還裝做以「合理價格」購買毒資產。

為什麼要如此拐彎抹角?答案似乎是華府仍對「國有化」這個字怕的要命。實情是,高譚集團和其同類機構已由國家監護,完全仰賴納稅人支撐,卻沒有人願意承認這個事實並施行明顯的解決方案:儘管暫時卻是明確的政府接管。因此,如同我所說,大行其道的新巫毒宣稱複雜的金融儀式可讓死氣沉沉的銀行回春。

不幸的是,耽溺迷信的代價可能很高。希望我這想法是錯的,但我懷疑納稅人又被坑了一次,我們將多了一項無法奏效的金融援助計畫。

(作者Paul Krugman是紐約時報專欄作家)