[MLB]Closer Status - ST Louis Cardinals

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://www.rotosavants.com/2009/01/closer-status-st-louis-cardinals.html

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[文章]

The mentioned options are Chris Perez, Jason Motte and Ryan Franklin. Although some reports had mentioned Chris Carpenter as an option. This report seems to be only if medical reasons demand it. That has not happened yet so we won't address him.

The first option Chris Perez who hasn't shown great control in the majors yet, but given time that should get better. As a reliever it is much more likely for a good K/9 guy like Chris to have an elevated LOB% and beat his FIP, so his ERA being lower than his FIP doesn't concern me much. I would like to see him a bit more before he starts closing, but a slow transition this year might be good for him.

Jason Motte is the next option and as a converted position player he makes an interesting choice. You can see his learning curve as his K/9 actually increased at each level to 14.85 at AAA this year in 66.2 IP. He had a great 12 game stint in the majors and continued a great K/9 of 13.09 and a K/BB of 5.33. This is a small sample size, but looks consistent and in a full year will probably fall to the 11-12 K/9. He is probably the best option, but even less experienced, but could compete with Perez as the season goes.

The last option is Ryan Franklin who saved 17 games last year, but blew 8 games. Ryan Franklin is a poor option with a low K/9 and only one season since 2002 where his K/BB was over 2.50. My guess is he'll be given a shot though since he has shown good results in St Louis these last 2 seasons and closing experience.

The correct choice long term has to be Jason Motte at this point with Perez as a setup and closer if Motte fails (not likely). I wouldn't be surprised if they start Ryan Franklin in April as closer, but start working Chris Perez in as the season goes.

Fantasy Impact
For fantasy I would leave this situation alone for now. Until you know for sure who is going to close I wouldn't draft any of them. Jason Motte could be useful for K's, but he should be a free agent pickup later. If he gets the job at any point this season though he could be a top 5 closer next year.