[MLB]Is Pie now worth the risk?

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=1512
------------------------------------------------
[文章]

Is Pie now worth the risk?

Felix Pie has been discussed as a top OF prospect for the Chicago Cubs for the past few years. Back in 2004, Baseball America had him pegged as the team’s #2 prospect. In 2003 they had him ranked at #5. There was never any doubting his potential on the field, the question was if he could actually perform up to the hype.

He’s played parts of the past two seasons at the major league level, hitting just .223 over 260 AB. He’s had just 3 HR and 11 SB, a far cry from what everyone had hoped he would develop into, especially since he was expected to be the Cubs everyday CF last season. His struggles certainly forced the Cubs to push him further and further down the depth chart and when Milton Bradley and Joey Gathright signed on the dotted line, he became unnecessary for the team.

In stepped the Baltimore Orioles, who acquired Pie in exchange for Garrett Olsen. The move sets Pie up for what may be his final chance to prove he is an everyday player in the major leagues. Word is that the team will shift Luke Scott to the DH role, allowing Pie to play regularly in the OF.

Will the regular playing time make him worth looking at in deeper formats?

He’ll be 24-years old on Opening Day, so maybe he’ll really put things together, but even the minor league numbers do not fully justify the hype surrounding him. His career high in HR was 15 at Triple A back in 2006, though he did pair that with 33 doubles. Does that bring hope? Normally I’d say yes, but considering it came in the Pacific Coast League, I’m taking it with a grain of salt.

He has some speed, having stolen 32 bases at Single A in 2004, but he was also caught 16 times that season. That is obviously far from a stellar percentage and he has failed to reach 20 SB since then. Pair those two things together and it doesn’t offer much promise of us seeing him run wild in the major leagues.

What about the average? He’s hit well in the minors, consistently being over .280, even at the top levels. I wouldn’t expect the higher numbers (.362 in 229 AB at Triple A in ‘07) to translate to the majors. Not even close. He just hasn’t shown the ability to hit at the Major League level. Last season he had a .358 BABIP, yet managed to hit just .241. That was due to a K% of 34.9%, and while I’d expect that to come down, so will the BABIP. No, I wouldn’t go into the season looking at an average of more then .270.

So, we have an OF’er who is likely not to hit for much power…
Who isn’t likely to steal many bases…
Who may struggle with his average…

That seems like an awful lot of risk, doesn’t it? I can understand watching him, looking to see if maybe things finally do get put together, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. There are much better risks in the OF to take, unless you are in the deepest of keeper leagues. Monitor his progress early on in case he develops into a great waiver wire pick-up, but don’t get your hopes too high.

What do you think? Could Pie develop into a usable OF’er?