[MLB]Skimming the Closer Pool: AL West

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://www.fantasypros911.com/skimming-the-closer-pool-al-west.html

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[文章]

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

• The Incumbent: Brian Fuentes

• Likelihood to hold job:

• How they did last year: 1-5, 2.73 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 30 SV, 82 K/22 BB
  
  Prior to last season, Fuentes stock could not have been any lower. A combination of injury and ineffectiveness forced Fuentes out of the job at the end of June, 2007. After blowing four straight saves that month, Fuentes was replaced by Manuel Corpas. Last season was a role reversal, in that Corpas struggled at the end of April and Fuentes retook the job. Fuentes had a 2.24 FIP and allowed a .317 BABIP, which suggest his numbers were as good as they appear and possibly even better. Fuentes only blew four saves in 34 chances last year, significantly improved from the seven in 27 chances in 2007.

• What to expect this year: Fuentes moves out of Coors Field and into the American League by signing with the Angels this month. Fuentes finds himself in a pretty good situation. Last year, a lot of Francisco Rodriguez critics said he was good but not great, and was more or less, in a great situation. Well, to a degree, they were right. Without analyzing K-Rod (next week we will look at the NL East), he played for a team that gave him 69 save chances, en route to setting the single-season saves record. Expect the same this year for Fuentes—a lot of opportunities. For one, the Angels play in a weak division, and they also do not blow teams out. Most of the Angels wins last year were tight, one or two run games—hence the 69 save opportunities. This year factor in an aging Vladimir Guerrero, minus Mark Teixeira and Garrett Anderson, and the Angels offense is arguably one of the worst in the AL. But they know how to win and again, this division is easily the worst in the American League. So Fuentes, who is coming off a bounce back season after a rough 2007, is in a good position this year. Fuentes is quickly moving up in mock drafts and closer rankings. It is conceivable to expect an ERA around 3.25 with 80 strikeouts and maybe for the first time in his career, 40 saves.

• In the ‘Pen: Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields
  
  Jose Arredondo: Once K-Rod signed elsewhere, Arredondo figured to be the top choice from within to take over as closer. But, going after, and signing, Fuentes showed that the Angels were not ready to hand Arredondo the keys to the car—just yet at least. A rookie last year, Arredondo was very impressive. He finished 10-2 with a 1.62 ERA and 55 strikeouts. In Anaheim, they typically stick with their closer through his struggles, so Fuentes should have some job security if he blows back-to-back saves. But, if he were to get hurt, Arredondo should get the ball in the ninth—unless Scioscia decides to share duties.
  
  Scot Shields: As consistent of a middle reliever you can find. In his eight seasons with the Angels, he has only twice posted an ERA over 3.00. Shields has picked up a handful of saves almost every season and has 20 total in his career.

Oakland Athletics

• The Incumbent: Brad Ziegler

• Likelihood to hold job:

• How they did last year: 3-0, 1.06 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 11 SV, 30 K/22 BB
  
  Ziegler began his career in record-setting fashion by tossing 39 1/3 scoreless innings. Ziegler uses a submarine delivery and deceptive angles to fool hitters, but does not have overpowering stuff. One of five Oakland pitchers to record a save, Ziegler finished the season as their main closer and converted 11 of 13 save opportunities. But, as good as he was, there was reason for concern. Ziegler had a below average 1.36 K/BB rate and a weak 4.53 K/9 rate. In addition, Ziegler’s best statistic was ERA, which might have been skewed considering the large disparity between his FIP and his actual ERA. Ziegler had a 3.72 FIP, which is nearly four times as much as his ERA. Red flag, anyone?

• What to expect this year: Ziegler is listed as the incumbent, because quite frankly, he finished last season as their ninth inning guy. However, Oakland manager Bob Geren has not committed to anyone yet. There is also the potential for the ultimate fantasy nightmare. And that’s shared duties, based on matchups. As aforementioned, Ziegler does not have overpowering stuff. Towards the end of the last year, hitters started figuring out his style, and his fastball was exposed for what it was—less than average. If Ziegler wins the job outright in Spring Training, it is hard to place much trust in him. He would be worth an end game pick, but Opening Day is a ways away, and there is a guy in the pen who has electric stuff.

• In the ‘Pen: Joey Devine, Santiago Casilla
  
  Joey Devine: If you weren’t sure who “that guy” was above, Devine has lights out stuff and can be downright unhittable at times. Devine posted a 0.59 ERA, which led the league and was an all-time low for a pitcher with at least 40 innings of work. Devine struck out 49 in 45 2/3 innings, good for a 9.66 K/9 rate. In the minors, Devine’s career K/9 was 13.18. He is an injury concern though, missing 54 games last year with a strained elbow—likely due to his sidearm motion. As long as he can stay healthy, Devine fits the bill for the closer makeup. Look for him to win the job out of Spring Training.
  
  Santiago Casilla: A heralded setup man last year, Casilla will most likely assume the same role this season. He struck out 43 in 50 1/3 innings with an ERA of 3.93. If Ziegler and Devine both get hurt, which is possible with their histories (Ziegler, head; Devine, elbow), Casilla has the potential to handle the duties.

Seattle Mariners

• The Incumbent: Tyler Walker

• Likelihood to hold job:

• How they did last year: 5-8, 4.56 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 0 SV, 49 K/21 BB
  
  This situation might be the worst in both leagues. The incumbent could have been filled with most of the candidates listed below in the ‘pen. If Oakland’s closer seat is hot, this one is red hot. Instead of talking about Walker last year, where he was not a closer, let’s skip down to this year for all of the candidates.

• What to expect this year: Walker has three months of experience as a closer back in 2005 with the Giants, and also a brief stint with the Rays in 2006. In total, he has 34 career saves. We might have to get Miss Cleo on the line to try and sort out this mess of a bullpen. At this point of the offseason, anyone can emerge as the leading contender and a closer-by-committee is certainly not out of the question. The best advice is to simply stay away.

• In the ‘Pen: Miguel Batista, Aaron Heilman, Mark Lowe, Roy Corcoran
  
  Miguel Batista: Batista leads the candidates with 38 career saves and picked up one last year as a Mariner. He went 4-14 with a putrid 6.26 ERA last year, primarily as a starter. This year the Mariners have no desire for Batista in the rotation, so he is one of the front-runners for the closer role. Batista saved 31 games for the Blue Jays in 2005.
  
  Aaron Heilman: Heilman would prefer to start, but he might not have a choice. He has nine career saves and some sources say he is actually the leading candidate. But after reading through several different opinions, it seems to vary by person. Heilman had a 5.45 BB/9 rate last season, a dreadful number for someone contending to be a team’s primary closer.
  
  Mark Lowe: Unlike Heilman, Lowe wants the job. Too bad he did so poorly during his chance last season. Despite managing to pie J.J. Putz in the face, Lowe recorded only one save in five chances during Putz’s absence. Prior to last year, Lowe was coming off arm surgery so it’s possible he was getting back into pitching form. In 2006, Lowe had a 1.93 ERA in 18 2/3 innings. As you can see, he is certainly capable.
  
  Roy Corcoran: Risky, but at this point, which one of the above guys isn’t? Corcoran saved three games during the team’s final month of the season. He actually had the best numbers last year out of the group with a 3.22 ERA. However, he does not have the quintessential closer makeup. He strikes out a very low rate (4.83 K/9, 1.08 K/BB in ’08) and has a lifetime WHIP of 1.53.

Again, the best thing to do is stay away from this disaster. Maybe in March or April, we will have a better idea on who to take in the end game.

Texas Rangers

• The Incumbent: Frank Francisco

• Likelihood to hold job:

• How they did last year: 3-5, 3.13 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 5 SV, 83 K/26 BB
  
  Francisco finally lived up to his potential last season. After years of talk, the only thing people remembered Francisco for was tossing a chair into the crowd and hitting an Athletics fan in the face (here, in case you forgot). Francisco finished strong with four straight saves in as many chances. Francisco’s strikeout numbers were through the roof across the board. He had career bests in total (83), K/9 (11.79), and K/BB (3.19).

• What to expect this year: Some people expect a lot, while others are not quite sold on Francisco yet. For Rangers fans, it’s easy to remember the confidence people had in C.J. Wilson heading into last season. Wilson saved 12 games and had a 3.03 ERA the year earlier, only to self-destruct on a weekly basis in the ninth inning last year. Francisco has a similar chance to do the same. A lot of Wilson’s problems last year had to do with putting people on base with free passes. Wilson had 5.24 BB/9 rate. In 2007, Francisco had a 5.76 BB/9, but improved to a rate of 3.69 last season. For him to be effective, he needs to control that powerful fastball the way he did last year. Expect Francisco to keep the job, but do it in Brian Wilson fashion—high numbers and a decent save total.

• In the ‘Pen: C.J. Wilson, Derrick Turnbow
  
  C.J. Wilson: Well, last season definitely did not go as planned. As said in the paragraph above, Wilson struggled with control. In fact, the last game he pitched in last year was a summary of his season. Wilson walked two, hit a batter, and then served up a grand slam to Richie Sexson of the Yankees. He had closer potential, but I think the confidence in him as a closer is gone.
  
  Derrick Turnbow: An interesting signing by the Rangers of late adds an arm to their bullpen. Another guy with control issues. Turnbow was effective in 2005 for the Brewers, saving 39 of 43 chances. But, lost his job the next year by blowing eight saves and an ERA of 6.87. It’s possible, actually very possible, that 2005 was an aberration. His lifetime numbers do not indicate he is the kind of pitcher he was in 2005 (1.74 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.67 K/BB). Turnbow might factor into their bullpen mix, but it would be a long shot for him to take this job at any point this season.

Who do you think wins the jobs in Oakland and Seattle? And do you think Frank Francisco, unlike predecessor C.J. Wilson, can last an entire season? Here is some food for thought; do you think it might be the ballpark in Arlington causing Rangers closers to struggle?