[MLB]Starting Pitcher Report

[心得]


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Fantasy 911
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[文章]

Aaron Cook-He had an excellent season with a 16-9 3.96 line. But like many extreme groundballers with low K rates his BABIP can fluctuate. There is nothing in his line to suggest that his season isn’t repeatable within the normal bounds of fluctuation, and low strikeout pitchers don’t do well on expected metrics, so we are going to say that he will have less wins and a higher ERA but probably under 4.30.


Adam Miller- It is pitchers like Miller that give rise to the axiom “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.” The talent is top notch but he is always injured. He has potential, and has generally put up groundball rates higher than 50% in the minors with K rates close to 9, the combination we love to see. If healthy he can step into a rotation right now.

Anthony Reyes- Freed from Dave Duncan’s shackles where he was forced to be what he was not, Reyes showed great promise before being beset by injury. You want a dark horse candidate for a breakout? He is as good a bet for a breakout in2009 as any $1 or $2 player can be. Analysis of his skills and performance tells us very little that we don’t know; where sabermetrics sometimes miss the mark is in player changing circumstances like Reyes. Go get him as a flyer in draft leagues and spend a dollar or three on him in auction leagues, and when you speak of FantasyPros911.com speak well.


Braden Looper-Against all odds he has turned into a nice solid starter, to the chagrin of Mets' fans everywhere. He does not strike out a lot of hitters, less than 5.0 per nine in 2008, but balances that with good control to keep his K/BB rate around 2.5, plenty good for a league average pitcher. He is 33 so this good run could come to an end anytime. At this point, his destination is still up in the air as well, which certainly would have a major influence on his value.



Burke Badenhop- Lots of grounders and fantastic control were Badenhop’s calling cards in the minors. He’s never been much of a strikeout pitcher, but then again, most groundballers aren’t. Unfortunately, he went down in mid-June with shoulder tendonitis and didn’t return so his status is up in the air at the moment. But if he’s healthy and finds himself in the rotation at some point he has the type of skill set that could see him surprise. And heck, with a name like Burke Badenhop, he’s destined to become a star.


Clay Hensley-Lost most of 2008 to injury, but was able to squeeze in a few innings. He is a low strikeout pitcher who can be decent if he keeps his walks in check. Given the state of the Padres’ rotation he could easily win a job in the spring, so keep him on your radar.



Clayton Richard - He blazed through AA and AAA ball in 2008, and promptly hit a wall on his call up to the majors. His ERA ballooned to 6.04 (and his BABIP to .347), while his strikeout rate dipped to 5.48. The silver lining is that he could be learning well on the job: after starting the year in the minors and going through the bad outings in the majors, Richard pitched a solid start against the Yankees to end the season (and was excellent in a few innings of relief in the playoffs). Some caution is advisable, but the upside is very good here.


David Purcey – A strained elbow ligament limited Purcey to 11 games in 2007 but he rebounded with a strong season at Triple-A last year. Injuries to Marcum and McGowan opened up the chance for Purcey to make his major league debut and he made 12 starts in the majors. His 3-6, 5.54 mark was uninspiring but he did average 8.03 SO/9 and featured a fastball in the low-90s. His strand rate was just 67.5 percent and combined with a 4.67 FIP that was nearly a run lower than his actual ERA, there’s room for improvement if he can hold down a spot in the rotation.

Doug Davis- Amazingly returned from surgery relating to thyroid cancer, he’s a decent source of strikeouts, but that’s about it. Poor control and at age 33, has little upside.


Franklin Morales-He was hurt by a poor 63% LOB% but that doesn’t mean he was good. Morales is often thought of as a decent prospect, but he has yet been unable to translate his nice K rates to the majors. He is a late flyer in NL-only auction leagues and that’s all.

Gio Gonzalez - His August call-up was a disaster, but it would be unfair to expect anything else. He's not yet ready for the majors, needing badly to improve his control. If given enough time to let that improve, he has the skills to be an excellent starter. But he's not even a passable one now.


Glen Perkins - His past minor league performance is more exciting (and also a mite more erratic) than his fellow rookies, but more than any other pitcher on the staff his transition to the majors has looked more like a step down than a step up. He could be a high-strikeout pitcher some day.



Homer Bailey-Bailey, 7th overall pick in 2004, made just eight starts for the Reds last year, posting an ERA of nearly 8 and a 2.092 WHIP, and was nearly as hittable in AAA. Bailey showed little of the talent that made him a #1 prospect and had the Reds salivating at the thought of their potential new ace, whose pure stuff appeared to take a hit as well. Reports of Bailey not paying much attention to coaches or opposing players are not encouraging, considering all that he still has to learn about the craft of pitching to ever reach expectations. He's still just 22, though, and might benefit from a change of scenery.


Humberto Sanchez – The main piece in the Gary Sheffield trade, Sanchez rebounded from a lost 2007 season in which he did not pitch due to elbow surgery, Sanchez advanced all the way to the majors, making two relief appearances for New York in 2008. The 6-foot-6, 270-pound Sanchez throws in the mid-90s and has a good slider. He fanned 19 batters in 14.2 innings in the minors last year and also showed good command, which had been a problem for him previously as a starter in the Detroit organization.

Ian Kennedy – No one can succeed in the majors with a 5.90 BB/9 ratio. Then you throw in a .347 BABIP and a 57.1 percent strand rate and you get the train wreck that was Kennedy’s 2008 season. He displayed good walk rates in the minors so it’s too soon to give up on him but there’s no reason to target Kennedy coming into the 2009 season.

Jack Egbert - Egbert steadily improved over four years of promotion up the minor league ladder, and despite a sore elbow that limited his playing time in spring training last year, seemed due to show up in the majors soon enough. He never quite seemed ready to the Sox, though, and ended the year in AAA with a 4.65 ERA and a HR/9 rate of 1.04. A portion of that can likely be chalked up to bad luck and a hitter-friendly park, as his skills are still good. Keep an eye on if he gets called up in 2009--he'll be worth a try.

Jake Arrieta-He has blossomed into the Orioles best pitching prospect, not that there is a lot of competition mind you. He has control issues, but you have to like any pitcher that gets 120 K and 80 hits in 113 IP. As usual AA will tell us whether he is a worthy investment. In 2009 he won’t be ready but Dynasty leaguers can keep him on the radar.



Jeff Niemann- Yet another guy who can be a serviceable back end starter. There are probably 30 guys with rotation gigs that are no better than Niemann. He is not a future top end starter despite his pedigree but deep leaguers can do worse for that $1 at the end of the auction.

Joe Blanton – After being dealt to Philly, Blanton settled in to pitch fairly well. As expected, his HR/9 rose to a three-year high of 1.00 with the move to Philly. Even though he is almost guaranteed double-digit wins in 2009, his low K/9 rate (5.05) does not make him a viable fantasy option for mixed leaguers.


Jon Garland-A soft tossing innings eater, Garland is a chameleon pitcher that will perform roughly as good as his team does, while giving you league average production. Like many other pitchers of this type he has value in deep leagues or AL-only leagues, especially in the auction format, but only for a buck or two. If you play in a league with strict and tough innings minimums then go an extra buck.

Jorge de la Rosa-Though it doesn’t look like it on the surface, with a 4.96 ERA, de la Rosa was a hidden gem who should be expected to improve in 2009. His peripherals suggest he can have an ERA in the low fours, and if his increased K rate and decreased BB rate are for real then watch out. There is a lot of upside here for a late draft pick or a salary under $5.



Kevin Millwood-The pitching analog to the Texas hitters, he is a far better pitcher than he gets credit for. He will always strike out around 6.5 batters per nine with a K/BB ratio of a solid 2.5 or so and 2008 was no different. He has the skills to be a better pitcher and a change of scenery will make him a nice 2009 sleeper. He is 33 though so the end of the line may be around the corner.


Nick Adenhart-A terrible year in AAA puts his future prospects in question. He was always a bit overrated and his numbers never showed huge potential. He is till very young and has lots of time to develop but he is marginal right now even in Dynasty leagues

Scott Elbert-At one time he was considered a top lefty pitching prospect, his star has dimmed only slightly as he has some control struggles. But he still looks like he can be a useful pitcher, if only out of the pen. He does have an insane ability to miss bats and it remains to be seen if that will carry over to the majors; he has had a BA against below .200 at every stop in his career.


Wade Davis- Yet another pitcher, not as good as Price and in most organizations he would be a contender for the number one prospect spot. Not likely to be of significant value in 2009 a she still has command issues and his MLE ERA is over 4.00 but, like Price, has a potentially devastating combination of a groundball rate over 50% and a K rate over 9.00. It wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up being just as good as Price at his peak.

Wade LeBlanc-He is usually discussed as one of the Padres’ better prospects. He has a below average fastball but an above average changeup, and since he lets up a lot of flyballs he could have intermittent success in San Diego. But he looks like a fringy guy right now that is destined for the pen. Get used to reading that when you read about the Padres’ young pitchers. The optimist can look at his 121/40 K/BB split in 120 IP in AA and hope but since it is the product of a below average fastball he may struggle to get hitters out in the bigs. Players like this usually fail but sometimes they surprise us and he certainly has earned a chance for that surprise.


Will Inman-Inman performed surprisingly well in the AA Texas League with a 140/71 K/BB in 139 IP. He needs to get his control under control (forgive the pun) to be successful at the major league level but as a 21 year old in the Texas league one has to be encouraged. He wont be a star but he looks far better than most of the Padres’ young pitching prospects.