[MLB]

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://www.fantasypros911.com/has-elvis-andrus-become-a-sleeper-option.html

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[文章]

The rumors are running rampant, with Michael Young agreeing to play 3B for the Rangers this season, as to who the Rangers will use as the SS. Will they sign a veteran to fill the role? Will they use someone else on the roster? Will the team turn the job over to Elvis Andrus, a player considered to be one of the best infield prospects in all of baseball?

He’s better known for his abilities in the field, despite a load of errors last season, so should fantasy owners be drooling over his potential to help or should they simply pass on the 20-year old (he turns 21 in August) if he is indeed given the job? There is no doubting his blazing speed, having stolen 54 bases last season at Double-A following a 2007 where he stole a total of 40 bases across two levels of Single-A.

The problem is, his benefits for owners may stop right there. He has just 12 career HR in the minor leagues in 1,410 AB. It’s not like he’s piling up the doubles with the power being projected down the line. He has just 66 career two-baggers, so don’t look for that to come around any time soon, if ever.

He batted just .295 last season, and that came with a BABIP of .357. With his speed it certainly is not out of the question that he can maintain a higher number there, as long as he can keep the ball on the ground. If he starts putting the ball in the air, he’s going to get himself into a lot of trouble.

It would not be surprising to see him struggle, especially considering the jump he is asked to make. Don’t expect a .300 average, with .250-.260 a very realistic number. I’d love to say that he’s going to hit .280 or .290, but I can’t do it, not given the numbers he posted last season.

Carlos Gomez and his .258 average with 33 SB seems like the perfect comparison. Andrus doesn’t walk an excessive amount (7.3% BB% last season), much like Gomez. He strikes out a bit more then you’d like for a player like him (18.9% K% last season), much like Gomez. He has little to no power, much like Gomez.

I like Andrus' potential just as much as anyone, but 2009 is going to be a learning process, a chance for him to grow. I wouldn't recommend taking the gamble on him unless you are in need of speed because that's about all he's likely to offer