[MLB]Kevin Slowey

[心得]
作者看好Kevin Slowey

projection :

188.0 IP, 14 W, 4.02 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 131 K (6.27 K/9), 30 BB (1.44 BB/9)

[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=1346
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[文章]

A strong Triple A season in 2007 led to people’s high hopes for Kevin Slowey, when he went 10-5 with a 1.89 ERA over 133.2 innings. After he was recalled, he posted a 4.73 ERA over 66.2 innings, but maybe he was just tiring down the stretch. In 2006 he had thrown 148.2 innings between Single & Double A, so it was quite a hefty jump.

Those who ignored the falloff and focused on his early ‘07 promise were rewarded for their gamble as he posted the following line:

12 Wins
160.1 Innings
3.99 ERA
1.15 WHIP
123 Strikeouts (6.90 K/9)
24 Walks (1.35 BB/9)
.297 BABIP

After just 1 start he was placed on the DL, not returning until May 8, which was why he pitched so few innings. The WHIP is the number that has to jump out at you, and the truth of the matter is that it is absolutely repeatable. It’s not like he had an excessively low BABIP, as it put him on par with the likes of Brandon Webb, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him duplicate it. The walk rate was very similar to what he had been doing throughout his career, even in his less then stellar first season (1.49). He is the type of pitcher who will significantly help you in WHIP, certainly adding to his value.

The strikeouts aren’t going to be there, and I could actually see a slight drop-off this season as opposed to an improvement. At Triple A in ‘07 his K/9 was 7.20, right on par with his rate for last season, but a lot of hitters he was also facing for the first time. It would not be surprising to see hitters making better contact, now that they have experience against him. He’s just not the type of pitcher who is going to blow you away.

Even with the great WHIP, he proved to be susceptible to the long ball, giving up 1.23 HR/9 last season, which contributed to his ERA being where it was. Unless he can get that in order, the ERA is not going to be stellar. He also pitches in the AL, which is another disadvantage for him. Basically, when you put it all together, an ERA right around the same range as last season should be expected.

Is he going to be a winning pitcher? The Twins have the potential to be a contender in the AL Central, so I could easily see an improvement over the 12 wins he posted last season, but like we always say, don’t draft a pitcher looking for W’s. You really just never know.

So, with all that said, let’s take a look at my projection for him for 2009:

188.0 IP, 14 W, 4.02 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 131 K (6.27 K/9), 30 BB (1.44 BB/9)

I know people want to see him projected as taking the next step, but I honestly just don’t see it. He’s a control pitcher that is not going to blow away many hitters, while taking a hit with the long ball. Would it surprise me if he bettered the ERA I’m projecting, not at all, but I wouldn’t look for him to be around 3.00. I’d think 3.80 or so would be a best-case scenario for a projection.

The WHIP is for real, however, which is where his value rests. It makes him a pitcher worth using in all formats as a late round pick to fill out your staff.