2009年1月29日 星期四

[Finance]選股的核心原則

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://valueguide.blogspot.com/2006/09/blog-post_11.html

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[文章]

市面上有許多選股程式或關於如何選股的書籍或文章,讓人看得眼花撩亂無從取捨。但看太多選股技巧反而讓投資人迷失在細節中而見樹不見林,失去了宏觀的視野,喪失了提綱挈領的指導原則。

如果投資人有足夠的財務知識看懂公司財務報表,其實選股沒那麼複雜。回歸到價值投資的基本原則:以遠低於價值的價格買進好公司的全部或部分。這句話看似普通,但如我們仔細體會其中意思並予以解讀,就可發現它包含了五個重要的觀念在裡面。

第一個是「價值」的觀念。雖然世上各種事物的價值頗為主觀,常因人而異,但大多數物品的價值基本上仍有一定的評價基礎可循,而非神來一筆。尤其是一家企業的價值評價基本上有一套已為大多數人接受的方法:其價值等於企業生命期間所有現金流量折現值的總合。至於實際上要如何估算則屬於每位投資人的能力範圍(Circle of Competence)。如果投資人無法合理地估計一家公司的約略價值,基本上他就不應該購買該公司的股票,或不適合自行做投資決策

第二個重要觀念是「價格」。每個人都知道價格,柴米油鹽、汽油、早點、麥當勞、星巴克、超商的便當等每天都提醒我們價格這件事。日用物資的價值與價格之間很少會大幅背離,因為這些東西大概值多少錢大家都很清楚。但也正由於價格是如此生活化,以致於我們對價格和價值的區分鈍化了,而且下意識地把它延伸到股票的買賣。但很不幸地股票的價格與價值關係卻離我們的理解範圍太遠了,日常物品的價格與價值關係的概念在此毫無用處。市場先生(Mr. Market)是Benjamin Graham在智慧型投資人(The Intelligent Investor)這本書中提出的譬喻,第一次生動地解釋了股票市場的價格行為。群眾心理因素可能會使股票價格大幅背離其合理的價值,因此投資人如何看待價格的波動就非常重要。巴菲特不時強調,如在一定智商以上EQ就是關鍵因素,也就是說大多數情況下性情(Temperament)決定了投資的成敗。

[Finance]如何正確看待最近的股價下跌?

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://valueguide.blogspot.com/2008/12/blog-post_23.html
http://valueguide.blogspot.com/2009/01/blog-post.html
http://valueguide.blogspot.com/2009/01/blog-post_29.html
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[文章]


其實投資只是兩件事情:一是如何估計公司價值,二是如何看待股票價格。--- Warren Buffett

近來的股價下跌讓許多投資人心慌意亂,惶惶不安,不知道是該賣還是該買,或是乾脆來個眼不見、心不煩。雖說股價漲跌乃屬自然(必然?),但鴻海(2317)前陣子居然跌破60元(最低價52.6元),也真的令人跌破眼鏡,我的意思是說投資人在有生之年要碰上這種機會的頻率(不是機率)實在很低。當然,機會躺在那兒,口袋裏還得有銀子才行。

基本上長期股價下跌有三種原因。一是公司所屬行業的基本面長期變差了,例如目前的報紙行業,由於網際網路的興起,資訊取得幾乎免費,付費看報的人少了,廣告主自然看在眼裡,願意花大錢在報紙登廣告的人也就少了,報紙業的獲利自然一年不如一年。不管公司經營管理多有效率,在這種情況下也無法力挽狂瀾使公司的獲利成長。大部分公司股票長期下跌的情況都屬於此種,但也是最容易被投資人所忽視的,畢竟較少人會去關心長期的事。

其二是公司本身的經營體質變差、競爭力下滑了。這種情況反而較少碰到,因為一開始經營體質好的公司通常有其特殊的公司文化,公司文化在創辦人的影響之下於公司內部根深蒂固,即使他本人去世了也不易改變。通常競爭力差的公司一開始就體質不良,而非後來變差了。

其三為公司原先的獲利是經過人工美化的財務數字或甚至刻意造假,以致投資人付出了過高的股票價格。後來時日一久便慢慢露出其經營體質的本來面目,股價就回到其應有的合理價值附近。公司經營階層對財務數字造假並不罕見,博達(2398)即是其中之一。另種是合法的美化,雖非刻意造假欺瞞投資人,卻也沒有誠實告知,員工股票選擇權(Stock Options)或員工股票分紅入股即是最好的例子,因前兩者均使經營費用低估而高估了獲利。台灣的五年投資抵減免稅條例也使大部分的科技公司在享受投資抵減期間的稅後獲利數字高估了。獲利高估,投資人自然也就跟著付出過高的價格買進股票,等到股票選擇權或股票分紅入股費用化後,加上投資抵減的免稅優惠逐漸到期,財務報表上得獲利數字就較為接近公司的經營實況,股價自然由過去「高獲利、高股價」的表象下滑到「真實獲利、真實股價」了。

一般投資人不太關心長期的不利因素,價值投資人就會小心避開。他們會問自己幾個問題:該公司所處行業未來三到五年仍然看好嗎?該公司在未來三到五年競爭力能維持嗎?該公司的經營階層誠實正直嗎?如果這三個問題的答案都是肯定的,那麼股票長期下跌的機率就比較小。

撇開長期股票下跌的情況,投資人最關心的還是短期股票下跌的情形,正如目前所碰到的全球股災。除了引發泡沫經濟崩盤的泡沫公司的股票在很短期間內爆掉外(如美國次貸相關的金融業者),許多體質好的公司也因此受到經濟蕭條的波及而影響獲利,致使股價跟著下跌。在一陣恐慌之下,投資人急忙地、不分青紅皂白地把垃圾跟黃金一起先丟為快。

關於如何看待股價下跌這種事,有三個人的觀點可以讓投資人深思。當然首先就是巴菲特的恩師Ben Graham,他在「智慧型投資人」(The Intelligent Investor)這本書中舉了個有名的譬喻「市場先生」(Mr. Market),巴菲特也在各種不同場合闡述該譬喻的含意並加以引伸;巴菲特本人也有許多精闢的比喻,我想大家耳熟能詳,筆者在此不再贅述。

除巴菲特及其恩師外,還有一位很有名但在投資界的光芒常被一般投資人忽略的人,他就是近代經濟學的一代宗師凱因斯(John Maynard Keynes)。凱因斯對股價漲跌有過如下的看法,他說:

It is a mistake to sell a £1 note for 15s in the hope of buying it back for 12s 6d, and a mistake to refuse to buy a £1 note for 15s on the ground that it cannot really be a £1 note."---John Maynard Keynes

(筆者譯:)
如果你將一英鎊鈔票用十五先令賣掉,只因為有希望用十二先令六潘尼再買回,這是個錯誤。同樣的,如果你拒絕用十五先令買進一英鎊的鈔票,只因為你認為它不值得一英鎊,這也是個錯誤。---John Maynard Keynes

(筆者譯註:£1=一英鎊,15s=15先令(shillings),6d=6潘尼(pence);一英鎊=20先令,一先令=12潘尼)

筆者大膽地把該句話稍加引申如下:如果你將一百元鈔票用六十元賣掉,只因為有希望用五十元再買回,這是個錯誤。如果你拒絕用五十元買進一百元的鈔票,只因為你相信還會跌到四十元,這也是個錯誤。同樣地,如果你用一百二十元去買一百元的鈔票只因為你認為它會漲到一百六十元,這仍然是個錯誤。

不幸地,前述的錯誤卻是大部分投資人所容易犯下的。我們不妨舉鴻海(2317)做實例說明。


鴻海(2317)目前是全球電子產品製造代工的第一大廠,其競爭者也是全球性的,在國外有FlextronicsJBL,在國內主要有廣達(2382)、仁寶(2324)、台達電(2308)、佳世達(2352)、英業達(2356)(筆者註:緯創(3231)、以及從華碩分出去的和碩聯合也算是,但因成立時間較短,此處不列入討論),大陸的比亞迪(1211.HK)也勉強算是。鴻海的競爭能力如何呢?要評估一家企業總體競爭力的簡便方法,首先檢視其股東權益報酬率(淨值報酬率) (ROE, Return On Equity)以及投入資本報酬率(ROIC, Return On Invested Capital)(關於ROEROIC的進一步解釋可參看選股的核心原則)


由表一可以看出,鴻海的股東權益報酬率與投入資本報酬率都是領先的,而且相當穩定。但由於台灣企業的員工分紅入股或認股權要於
2008年才開始費用化,因此2007年以前的表列數字要打些折扣,尤其是員工分紅入股比率高的公司(參看如何估算員工分紅配股的費用)。即使考慮員工分紅費用化的因素後,台灣企業相較於FlextronicsJBL仍是大幅領先。(筆者註:由於FlextronicsJBLROEROIC只約在10%或以下,競爭力較差,因此沒列出其資料。)


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另外要指出的是,從表一可看出,台達電、仁寶、廣達、英業達、佳世達甚至比亞迪的有效稅率相對於鴻海而言均偏低,甚至為負(政府補貼或退稅),而鴻海雖然也享有一些稅的優惠,但平均有效稅率仍比競爭者高許多,起伏也小很多,因此如果考慮稅的因素,相對之下鴻海的經營績效與競爭力更為驚人。


如果我們再深入檢視,鴻海之所以能夠有如此高且穩定的投入資本報酬率在於兩個因素。首先,它的業務拓展能力遠超乎競爭者。如表二所示,
20002007的八年間,它的每股營收(註一)在近千億的營收基礎上仍成長了近13.2倍,相對於台達電的2.1倍、廣達的8.8倍、仁寶的5.3倍、英業達的2.5倍、佳世達的3.7倍都大幅超出。鴻海由於營收成長快速,即使毛利率長期逐年下滑,仍能藉由營收補足,為股東賺取可觀的利潤,維持高水位的股東權益報酬率。所以鴻海的每股淨值(BVSBook Value per Share)在這八年間成長了6倍,相對於台達電的1.9倍、廣達的2.6倍、仁寶的2.0倍、英業達的1.7倍、佳世達的1.2倍也都高出不少。

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註一:此處用每股營收或每股淨值而不用營收數字或淨值是為了避免因併購而產生的營收或淨值成長幻覺。每股數字比較能代表實質成長。


或許有讀者注意到其中台達電長期的ROEROIC雖比鴻海差些,可也維持在一定的水平,但因其營收增加慢,獲利成長性就差了鴻海許多,所以即使其長期的ROEROIC並不差,但每股淨值八年間就只成長1.9倍,大部分的獲利都以現金股息的方式分配給股東。鴻海在郭台銘這位超級業務員的帶領下,在世界各地衝鋒陷陣,攻城掠地,造就了台灣股市的「紅海」奇蹟。

其次,鴻海產品的毛利率比廣達、仁寶、英業達、佳世達要高,雖然只有一兩個百分點,但因為鴻海的營收近兩兆,毛利率只要高一個百分點就多了毛利近200億元。鴻海的毛利率雖然比台達電的低許多,但如前所述,營收的快速增長不僅補足了此點且還有餘。最後,鴻海的產品多樣性分佈很廣,因此獲利起伏受單種產品的影響較小,長期下來ROEROIC就相對穩定。所以總的說來,鴻海的確具有長期的競爭優勢,且三五年內受到競爭者直接威脅的可能性很小。


值得一提的是,佳世達的毛利率其實與鴻海不相上下,如表三所示,但為甚麼投入資本報酬率卻比鴻海差多呢?主要是近幾年佳世達的管銷費用率高出鴻海不少,這表示佳世達的日常營運效率或整體策略管理不如鴻海
(註二),致使管銷費用偏高,所以營業利益率就比鴻海低,結果就是投入資本報酬率也較低,最後只好靠財務槓桿來拉高股東權益報酬率了(2007ROEROIC高近一倍)

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註二佳世達科技原名為「明基電通」,簡稱「明基」,商標為「BenQ」,最早的前身為「明碁電腦」,是宏碁集團旗下的公司之一,共同使用Acer的標誌,1999年宏碁集團重整後,獨立為「明基電通集團」,並於2002年成立品牌「BenQ」。20079明基電通將品牌服務與代工製造事業分割,明基電通專注品牌服務,佳世達則專注於代工製造。因此分割前的品牌行銷費用可能是使管銷費用居高不下的主因,這也是贏了面子失了裡子的例子。2008年以後專事代工業務,預期管銷費用率應該會大幅下降。因此分割前與鴻海直接相比可能會有誤導之虞。


鴻海的股價由2007年第四季的最高點225元(經除權追溯調整)下跌到2008年第四季的52.6元,跌幅約77%,公司的經營體質在這段時間內急速變壞了嗎?即使郭台銘心有旁騖,三不五時搞些花邊新聞,且準備交棒,但公司的經營體質會一下子就壞到如此不堪嗎?從目前所有資訊來看,顯然不至於。此次股價下滑近77%是因為全球經濟景氣惡化與投資人心理兩個因素相互激盪所致。


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先不管鴻海股票是否值得高價時的225元,讓我們來理性地評估現在是否值得買進。當然此處的估算有一個假設做前提:五年後的經濟景氣應該恢復正常了。(關於估價方法請參看BVS線在選股上的應用)

過去十年股票市場給鴻海股票的評價大約是每股淨值的3.1(BVS乘數=3.1參看這裡(pdf)),如果2008年預估每股淨值為50元,則過去十年及五年的每股淨值平均年成長率分別約為31.0%26.1%。但是我們認為以鴻海目前近兩兆元的營收要繼續以往年的速率增長會越來越困難,即使未來鴻海的注意力從追求營收成長轉到獲利成長的管理,我們也懷疑獲利的成長速率能維持以往的水平,因此我們很保守地估計未來五年每股淨值成長率為平均每年10%,這意味著公司未來五年的盈餘留在公司內再投資的需求將減少,現金股利將會多發些,所以預期未來五年平均股東權益報酬率仍可以維持在20%以上。但因為每股淨值的成長力道減小了,所以我們用較保守的數字---每股淨值的2(註三)來推估其五年後(2013年底)的股價。

註三:為了比較起見,國內各電子大廠的BVS乘數如下:


首先,我們估計
2008年底的每股淨值約為50元,由此算出五年後的每股淨值約為80.5(=50*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1),如以淨值的二倍估算,則五年後的股價約為161(=80.5*2);如果再保守些,用每股淨值的1.5倍來估算,則五年後的股價約為121(=80.5*1.5)。所以我們推估鴻海五年後的合理股價會有很大的機率落在121161 之間。(註:此處的股價係指未經除權調整的價格)

如果你很幸運地剛好在前陣子最低點52.6元附近---例如在55---買進鴻海股票,五年後的預期年化報酬率(Annualized Return)將落在17.1%~24.0%範圍(註四)。如果你是在上次貼文時(2008/12/23)的當日平均價格62元買進,五年後的預期年化報酬率為14.3%~21.0%(註四)。那麼昨天(2009/1/8)的收盤價已經來到66.3元了,如果你已經錯失了前面的機會,現在還可以買進嗎?萬一買了之後又下跌怎麼辦?還是等它回跌後再出手以便有較高的報酬率?或是在更早以前就買進卻眼看股價一再下跌的投資人現在該怎麼做?

註四:此處未計入每年可能發放的現金股息,若計入則報酬率會更高。如以平均每年二元現金股息計算,則每年現金股息報酬率約為3%(=2/59),五年期間換算成年複利報酬率約為3.2%。所以如果加上現金股息,年總報酬率會分別介於20.3~27.2%17.5~24.2%之間。


在面對股票下跌時最重要的是要弄清楚下跌背後的真正原因,因為股價波動只是表象,公司經營體質與長期競爭力才是本質。就如同巴菲特在美國運通因涉及假沙拉油存貨醜聞時對其股票下跌時所抱持的正確態度一樣(參看此文),我們可以用類似的態度來檢驗此次鴻海(或其他許多經營體質良好而受此次全球金融風暴波及的公司)的股價劇跌是否有類似的情景。

前面提過,以目前的情況分析,鴻海在未來五年內競爭優勢會突然變差的可能性不高(雖然不是零),此次股價跌幅會如此之深主要是因為美國金融風暴所引起的全球性經濟蕭條,進而導致的全球股災。如果這種推論正確,則剩下的問題只有:經濟蕭條會不會再進一步惡化?目前的低迷情況會拖多久才會從谷底翻身?之所以要問這些問題是因為它們與鴻海的獲利緊密關聯,進而會影響其股價。

這些都是屬於經濟景氣循環(註一)的老問題,雖然引致的原因每次不同。要嘗試回答這些問題屬於總體經濟學的專業領域,筆者非此領域專家,不敢妄加評論。但綜觀各國經濟權威或學者的預測,大多數意見認為五年左右可恢復景氣(Bill Gates說要十年),因為現在各國政府對於景氣蕭條有更多的經驗,也擁有更多的工具或手段,同時世界各國也更願意合作。

註一:關於景氣循環,凱因斯在就業利息和貨幣的一般理論(The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money)一書中的第二十二章有較清楚的解釋,雖然其中有些名詞或關念對不熟經濟學的讀者可能無法理解,但仔細讀完該章節後對瞭解景氣循環的概念仍有相當幫助。建議有興趣的投資人不妨讀讀,相信能提高如何面對此次股災的信心。

目前全球性經濟蕭條主要是消費者信心問題。此信心問題是由房產泡沫破滅與股市大跌後所引起的,因為這些資產市值爬升期間所引發的財富效應(Wealth Effect)突然變為負向反應。一般說來,房產在升值時財富效應不是很明顯,但在下跌時財富效應的負面反應卻是很明顯,也就是消費者會立即緊縮開支。股票的財富效應在下跌時更是快而明顯。

這次金融風暴所引起的正是房產與股市雙雙同時下跌,因此負的財富效應立即顯現,也就是說人人對未來都沒信心、沒安全感,未雨綢繆,都在減少開支。消費減少,企業獲利因此下滑,只好裁員因應,被裁員的不敢消費,沒被裁的也怕被裁或因股票市值下跌而減少消費,大家緊縮開支使得企業獲利更行惡化,裁員增加,股價再下滑,消費者更進一步減少支出,如此這般掉入惡性循環的漩渦,好像看不到明天。

但這種惡性循環不會無限制下去,總會有停止的時候。因為每個人總有他認為最起碼的需求。例如再怎麼樣說,衛生紙每天還是需要的---除非你裝的是昂貴的自動沖洗馬桶,電視、冰箱、電腦年限到了總是會壞掉,汽車再怎麼保養也總有壽終正寢的一天。這些需求會讓商店與工廠的存貨慢慢減少,然後就會有新的訂單傳到各企業的工廠,企業獲利會開始轉好,失業的勞動人口也會開始被再次僱用,股價也會反應這些而開始上漲,財富效應的幽靈又會悄然地開始發揮效應了。

前述所提只是惡性循環的自然終止點,但會走到這一地步的機率實在不高,要不然還真的很慘。因為前面提過,此次經濟蕭條主要是總體消費者的信心問題,大家突然間失去安全感,一起減少消費,所以才有現在的問題。但整體的財富生產能量仍在,與金融風暴發生之前並沒有太大差別,只是現在生產出來的東西或服務沒人購買而已。只要出現某種刺激(Trigger),讓大家恢復信心、重新踏入商店購物,整個情況就會慢慢逆轉,重新啟動良性循環。

但問題是什麼時候會開始這個良性循環呢?誰也無法鐵口直斷,但各國政府不會坐視不管讓經濟持續蕭條,各種激勵投資措施會陸續出籠(註二),也會積極擴張公共建設支出,所以蕭條的情況會持續超出五年的機率實在不高。

註二:有些激勵措施只是表面好看,但本質上沒啥用處,台灣最近發的消費券即是一例。王作榮對此已有評論,筆者同意其觀點。因為台灣經濟主要靠外銷而非內需,國外消費者不買台灣生產的產品,國內工廠就很難獲利,失業人口就會高,加上股市低迷所引起負面財富效應,整體消費水平就會降低,連帶影響內需產業的獲利與僱用員工人數。這種情境想僅靠區區幾百億元的消費券來「牛轉乾坤」確實是一廂情願。所以投資人別被剛發放消費券時的幾日歡樂氣氛表象給騙了。但消費券至少在春節期間帶給苦悶的大眾一絲歡樂氣氛,也算是功德一件。所以發消費券雖然提振經濟功效不大,但也不算壞事。

現在回到鴻海的例子。前面是以五年後經濟景氣恢復正常來估算鴻海的股價與投資報酬率,估計鴻海的股價五年後很有可能落在121~161元之間,報酬率則視買進價格而不同。如果說五年時間恢復景氣還嫌太樂觀,那我們以八年後景氣才恢復來推算現在買進鴻海的投資報酬率。假設前面用以估算鴻海股價的假設於八年後仍然正確的話(此處假設風險稍高),以鴻海於春節前封關收盤價59元來計算,則八年後的預期年投資報酬率最可能落在9.4~13.4%的範圍(註三)。此數字乍看之下好像不怎麼令人印象深刻,但別忘了此數字可是八年的長期年平均複利報酬率,不是任一年度或短期內或波段性的投資報酬率。更別忘了同一期間內---八年---其他投資標的的預期投資報酬率可能更低,而且…而且…風險可能比鴻海高許多。

2009年1月26日 星期一

[Ericsson]WCDMA招標三強瓜分重要省市 5月有望開通

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/internet/2009-01/25/content_10717675.htm

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[文章]

1月25日消息,備受矚目的WCDMA正式揭曉後,聯通在內部會議上正式公布了各家中標信息。根據“三電咨詢”發布的報告,根據中標的載頻數,各廠家的佔有率分別為:“華為係(華為,摩托羅拉)”佔30.6%,“愛立信係(愛立信、烽火、新郵通)”佔26.5%,中興通訊21.5%,諾基亞西門子11.1%,上海貝爾10.2%多。

華為、愛立信、中興分列WCDMA招標前三位,並獲得重要省份建網合同。

WCDMA招標三強瓜分重要省市

按城市計算,華為進入廣東、天津、重慶等核心省市,愛立信獲得北京、江蘇、四川等重要省市,中興進入廣東、浙江、福建等東部人口和經濟大省,三家成為最大贏家。按照進入的總省份來說,預計中興進入17個,是數量最多的廠商。


在首期招標三類評標指標中:技術標方面,華為、中興均列得分前三、並在多項測試指標中獲得第一;商務標方面,綜合3次報價結果,愛立信、華為、中興分列前三,其中愛立信、華為在第三輪報價中跌破每載3萬,諾西、阿朗偏高。按照商務、技術、其它5:4:1的國際招標慣例,招標三項指標加和,最終位居綜合排名前三。

華為、中興與愛立信一起是全球三家率先實現了HSPA+技術測試的廠商,可以實現21Mbps的下載速度,在3G時代具有突出的競爭力。中興公司的SDR技術平臺已經在香港、印度等多個市場領先實現規模商用,能夠幫助運營商迅速、高效、低成本的建設兼容GSM/HSPA/HSPA+/LTE等多制式的疊加網,符合包括聯通在內的全球主流運營商的長期需求。

部分重點城市5月有望開通

據多家中標廠商透露,中國聯通已經下發內部文件,向中標廠商公布WCDMA招標結果,中國聯通在文件中透露,預計4月份將在部分重要城市建成網絡,5月有望開通,這也與中國聯通此前表示的5.17電信日放號相吻合。

此前,中國聯通已經要求北京、上海、廣州等一線大城市及前期建WCDMA試驗網的城市在今年4月17日前建好WCDMA網絡,並在內部運營3G,磨合和係統試驗一個月後,這些城市將在5月17日電信日正式宣布商用。

據了解,中國聯通的WCDMA建網原則是,在東部沿海省市要覆蓋到所有城市市區、縣城城區和重點鄉鎮;中部省市要覆蓋到所有城市市區、重點縣城;西部省市要覆蓋到重點城市市區;郊區覆蓋原則上不允許採用新建3G站址補盲2G覆蓋。行政村原則上初期不考慮3G覆蓋。

國產廠商已獲全球認可

在全球WCDMA設備市場中,愛立信、諾西、阿朗、華為、中興按照存量排名分列前五位,按照2008年發展勢頭看,愛立信、諾西、華為分列前三,華為進軍西歐多家運營商,中興通訊進展迅速,也進入法國、土耳其、香港等高端市場。這對諾西、阿朗等傳統廠商造成了很大威脅。

綜合來看,國產廠商不但保持了在靈活全面服務上的優勢,而且在技術上利用新技術更新換代實現了超越,在HSPA+,LTE等領域與愛立信、諾西站在了同一起跑線上,利用3G在國內市場實現了全面反超,顛覆了在2G時代的格局。

在全球市場,在經濟危機之下,諾西、阿朗、愛立信都先後公布裁員計劃,北電、摩托羅拉等傳統設備廠商在電信設備市場已經沒有任何優勢可言,甚至北電還提出了申請破產保護。分析人士認為,聯通招標作為全球最大規模的3G招標,其形成的市場格局對全球格局具有重要影響,這為中國企業在3G時代全球的崛起奠定了基礎。

2009年1月25日 星期日

[Ericsson]客戶可能縮減支出 易利信計畫再裁員五千

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://www.coolloud.org.tw/node/34409
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[文章]

【陳穎柔/綜合外電報導】
 全球最大的電信設備製造商易利信預期其客戶今年將縮減支出,因此計畫進一步削減成本,措施包括再裁員約5千人。

 易利信周三公布去年第四季財報,儘管結果優於預期,但該公司同日宣布一項節省100億瑞典克朗年度成本的計畫。易利信執行長思文凱(Carl-Henric Svanberg)表示,該公司2008年表現不錯,總營收成長11%,所有產品類別和各市場的業績都見成長,不過,情況到了2009年預料將趨惡化。

 為此,易利信擬訂裁撤顧問及其他約聘人員、整併研發辦公室、將部分工作移至低成本國家等削減成本措施,如此將使大約5千人丟飯碗,其中約1千人是瑞典員工,這些措施將花費易利信60到70億瑞典克朗,但能使該公司自明年起年省100億瑞典克朗費用。易利信去年裁員4千人。

 易利信去年在歐美部分行動通訊業者延後3G網路升級時程後,於10月發出獲利預警,令投資人大吃一驚。思文凱周三指出,在景氣衰退蔓延全球之下,實難預測消費者電信花費受影響程度會有多深以及行動通訊業者將如何因應。

 思文凱表示,目前為止,易利信的基礎設施事業幾乎不受影響,但若以為整個2009年也會是這樣是不合理的。

 易利信去年第四季營收年增23%至670億瑞典克朗,每股盈餘為1.21瑞典克朗,遜於前年第四季的1.77瑞典克朗,淨利38.9億瑞典克朗較前年同期縮水31%。

 易利信與新力合資的索尼愛立信原是易利信主要淨利來源之一,如今恐怕持續虧損直至今年上半結束。索尼愛立信去年第四季虧損1.87億歐元。

 思文凱周三表示,排除索尼愛立信,易利信的營業利潤率持續穩定攀升,該公司目前有350億瑞典克朗淨現金,財務體質優。

2009年1月21日 星期三

[MLB]Baseball Notes Preview

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
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[文章]

Buster Posey – The next big, young catching prospect is buried behind Bengie Molina and Pablo Sandoval. It still shouldn’t surprise anyone if he gets a call-up in September. That’s how good he could be. Of course you heard this about hundreds of other players that never made a dent in the majors.

Greg Zaun – One of the most reliable backup catchers in the game. Zaun’s numbers were dragged down by a .259 BABIP. With a little better luck, Zaun could easily add to his .237 batting average in 2008. But he will turn 38 during the next month of the season and there are better fantasy options out there, even in AL only leagues. He is a free agent at the time of this writing.

Guillermo Quiroz- Once a former top prospect he has basically washed out at this point. Though he is still only 26 he is trending down in most of the skill categories. If you are a bettor on the “Age 27” season theory you could take a shot at him if Matt Wieters doesn’t win the job out of the spring or if Quiroz signs somewhere that gives him a chance, but he is a $1 player only.


Hank Conger-The next great hope among catching prospects for the Angels, he hit fairly well at High-A Rancho Cucamonga, but like many young hitters he has issues with plate discipline. Good hitting catchers can be notoriously difficult to develop, so we will have to keep an eye on Conger but for now he looks good.

Ivan Rodriguez – The Yankees thought they were getting a big upgrade at catcher when they traded for Rodriguez but in his stint in pinstripes he put up offensive numbers that were Molina-esque in their awfulness. Two years ago Pudge threw out more runners than those that stole successfully. In 2008 two out of every three runners advanced on steal attempts with Rodriguez behind the plate. The catching position in fantasy is so shallow, especially in the AL, that Rodriguez is still worth a late-round pick if you are desperate but he is at the end of his Hall of Fame career.He is a free agent at the time of this writing.


John Baker- The 27-year old rookie may have solidified the starting catcher job next year after posting a solid .839 OPS in 197 at-bats. However, his performance was inflated by a .375 BABIP, which was actually supported by a 24.7% line drive rate, but that rate is likely unsustainable. He has a little HR power and could probably hit in the low double digits if given the playing time. He showed a very good walk rate as well at the major league level so it appears he could perform respectably and hold the job, especially given the lack of any clear competition.

[MLB] MATT KEMP & Bobby Abreu

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://www.fantasypros911.com/fantasy-baseball-arbitration-outfielders.html

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[文章]

MATT KEMP

FP911 SAYS:
Kemp is projected as a Tier 3 OF with a .288 average, 21-90-28 with 85 runs scored. Kemp is a rising 5 tool player that continues to get better each year he plays. We are actually being conservative on his batting average due to the uncertainity of the Manny Ramirez signing and the positive effects his presence brings to everyone in that lineup. His ADP of 41 at mockdraftcentral.com is consistent with our ranking.

MATT KEMP CHEERLEADERS SAY: Kemp is undervalued and should be ranked ahead of Tier 2 OFs like Carlos Quentin (one year wonder), Nate McLouth (second half dud), and Torii Hunter (declining skills). Kemp's stats actually declined with the insertion of Manny into the Dodgers lineup. Kemp's numbers will continue to improve and he will be over a .300 hitter in 2009 with steals over 30.

ARBITRATOR RHETT OLDHAM SAYS: Excellent points on both sides of the debate. Kemp will be entering his 3rd full year in the big leagues and that is more important to me than the magical age 27. The Dodgers like to run so I do not see any drop off in Kemp's steal total. His average has consistently been over .300 at every level so his .290 average last year was a career low and I can only see an increase in his power numbers as he matures. I rule in favor of: MATT KEMP CHEERLEADERS

BOBBY ABREU

FP911 SAYS:
Abreu is projected as a Tier 4 outfielder with a line of .287 17-95-20. Abreu does not hit for the same power that we remember from his Phillies' days but his career batting average of .300, 7 of the last 8 season of over 100 RBI, and 10 straight seasons of stealing over 20 bases still make us believers. Abreu hit .327 after the All Star break which shows his keen batting eye has not suffered. Mock Draft Central has him at a 61 ADP which is consistent with our numbers.

BOBBY ABREU DETRACTORS: At age 35, Abreu is on the decline. Leaving Yankee Stadium's famed short right field porch where he hit 14 of his 20 home runs last year will not help his power numbers. Counting on an aging veteran to give you 20 plus steals is dicey at best. Most importantly where is he going to play. I think the ballpark makes a huge difference to Abreu's value. I just think there are too many questions marks to draft him this high.

ARBITRATOR RHETT OLDHAM SAYS: Abreu's days as a power hitter are clearly over but that is not why you are drafting him. You want his high average, big RBI totals, and consistency in the stolen base department. Abreu is no fool when it comes to his contract negotiations. Abreu is on your team because you know what you are getting. Unfortunately, it is not quite as much as you wil get compared to previous seasons. I rule in favor of: FP911.

[Ericsson]五巨頭競標中國聯通3G大單

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://news.cnyes.com/dspnewsS.asp?rno=17&fi=\NEWSBASE\20090121\WEB509&vi=32012&sdt=20090119&edt=20090121&top=50&date=20090121&time=09:59:17&cls=index15_totalnews

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昨日,《每日經濟新聞》記者從權威渠道獲悉,在中國聯通WCDMA首輪招標現場,出現8家廠商參與競標。其中包括全球5大電信巨頭愛立信、上海貝爾、華為、諾基亞西門子和中興通訊,其餘三家為摩托羅拉、新郵通和烽火通信。

一位知情人士透露,招標現場氣氛非常緊張,中興曾一度遙遙領先,愛立信、華為則一直試圖扭轉局勢。

五巨頭「暗戰」55個城市

按照中國聯通WCDMA招標日程表,上週末啟動首輪招標,今年2月設備到貨後迅速大規模建網。一位接近中國聯通決策層人士透露,在獲得3G牌照後,中國聯通第二天就召集設備廠商,通報相關招標信息以及發放招標相關說明。

「中國聯通本次設備招標主要為核心網設備。」一位設備廠商告訴《每日經濟新聞》記者,招標將涉及55個城市,包括所有省會城市、計劃單列市和部分經濟發達城市。計劃採用多輪招標的形式。

面對龐大的3G盛宴,8家參與競標廠商悉數出現在中國聯通WCDMA首輪招標現場,包括WCDMA設備五大巨頭愛立信、上海貝爾、華為、諾基亞西門子和中興通訊,其餘3家為摩托羅拉、新郵通和烽火通信。

「雖然遞交標書的廠商共有8家,但由於摩托羅拉、新郵通和烽火通信分別採用了華為、愛立信的設備,所以可獨立提供產品的WCDMA設備商只有5家。」上述人士稱。

實際上,對於全球設備廠商而言,在金融危機的衝擊之下的WCDMA招標是如此珍貴。截至去年10月,WCDMA的全球用戶累計達到2.53億,占3G用戶 總數的70%左右。1月14日的聯通特別股東大會上,中國聯通董事長常小兵明確表示,預期今明兩年的資本開支合計約1000億元,其中2009年涉資約 600億元。「由於中國聯通此次建設的WCDMA網是近年來全球最大的,此次招標引起各方關注。」業內專家稱。

中興暫居第一

據可靠信息,由於中興通訊在招標中率先打出價格牌,也導致了其在前期招標中先拔頭籌。「由於WCDMA是全世界建設最廣泛、網絡覆蓋最完善、可漫遊國家最多的3G網絡,五大巨頭競爭勢力之間的技術實力相差不遠,而價格無疑成為敏感籌碼。」有業內專家評論。

一位曾參與招標的設備廠商代表證實,技術佔優的愛立信和華為雙雙報出高價,約為每載扇6萬元至7萬元,而中興則報價3.6萬元,幾近競爭對手報價的二分之一。

「實際上中國聯通也希望少花錢多辦事,中興通訊與中國聯通的牽手算是一拍即合。」上述人士稱,在招標現場,中興通訊即確立了領先位置,至少獲得10個省市的設備訂單。而愛立信則僅取得不到4個省份的名額。

對此,申銀萬國通信行業分析師方璐預計,雖然中興通訊現有WCDMA網絡的部署規模遜於愛立信、華為以及諾基亞西門子,但在此次招標中仍有可能超過15% 市場份額。與此同時,三電咨詢市場研究公司專家表示,從發展趨勢來說,任何國家都會在情感上偏向於本土廠商。上海貝爾、華為、中興通訊具有本土廠商身份, 因此在此次競標中將獲得部分優勢。

《每日經濟新聞》記者從相關渠道瞭解,暫時失利的愛立信、華為等設備商已經開始調整策略,試圖在WCDMA招標結束前挽回局面。

[Health]「不望長壽,但求無病痛」─ 齊國力教授談養生保健

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
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[文章]

不望長壽,但求無病痛」─ 齊國力教授談養生保健

1. 平衡飲食

下面我講第一個問題,平衡飲食。也許有人早就認為保健有什麼好聽的,還不是早起早睡身體好。我告訴你,唐朝時可以這麼說,現在這麼說就是極端無知了,很多事情都在變化。所謂平衡飲食,有飲、食二大類。先說飲食的第一個問題,“飲”的問題。

我在北大時問學生,什麼飲料最好?學生異口同聲回答:可口可樂;可口可樂美國都不承認,國際上也不承認,它只能解渴,沒有任何保健作用。什麼叫保健品,大家要知道,它得是能治療疾病的。

國際會議上定出了六種保健品:第一綠茶;第二紅葡萄酒;第三豆漿;第四酸奶(就是優酪乳)──人家不提牛奶,你注意啦!第五骨頭湯;第六蘑菇湯。

為什麼提蘑菇湯?因為蘑菇能提高免疫功能。一個辦公室有人老感冒,有人老不得病,什麼原因?就是免疫功能不一樣。喝蘑菇湯能提高免疫力,所以是保健品。

那為什麼提骨頭湯呢?骨頭湯裏含琬膠,琬膠是延年益壽的,所以現在世界各國都有骨頭湯街,而中國沒有。所以不要小看骨頭湯,它能延年益壽,因為有琬膠。

為什麼提酸奶?因為酸奶是維持細菌平衡的。所謂維持細菌平衡是指有益的細菌生長,有害的細菌消滅,所以吃酸奶可以少得病的。牛奶本身我們不否定它的作用,但跟酸奶比起來差得很遠。還有豆漿,後面再說。

我下面講為什麼喝綠茶。綠茶為什麼有保健作用呢?原來綠茶裏面含有茶坨酚,而茶坨酚是抗癌的。日本普查搞得特別好。他們普查完了說 40 歲以上的人沒有一個體內沒有癌細胞的。為什麼有人得癌症,有人不得,就是跟喝綠茶有關系。如果你每天喝 4 杯綠茶,癌細胞就不分裂,而且即使分裂也要推遲 9 年以上。綠茶裏含茶坨酚,它是抗癌的,在所有的飲料裏綠茶是第一的。

第二請注意,綠茶裏含有氟。這個氟有什麼作用呢?它不僅能堅固牙齒,還能消滅蟲牙,消滅菌斑。飯後 3 分鐘,牙齒的菌斑就要出現。現在我們很多人牙齒不好,不但不拿茶水漱口,連白水都不漱,問題在哪裡不知道。你想,如果牙齒好,你當然長壽啦。我們很多人忽略了,其實你不費事,你拿茶水漱口就把菌斑消滅了,而且堅固牙齒。這很小的一件事,應該堅持做。

第三個,綠茶本身含茶單寧,茶單寧是提高血管韌性的,使血管不容易破裂。綠茶第一抗癌,第二能堅固牙齒,第三腦血管不易破裂,幹嘛不喝呀!還有人跟我抬槓:喝完茶睡不著覺怎麼辦?誰讓你睡覺前喝茶了?

飲料中第二個是紅葡萄酒。什麼原因?原來紅葡萄的皮上有種東西,叫逆轉醇。

這逆轉醇幹什麼的你們不知道,它整個是抗衰老的,一說抗衰老人們就愛喝了。它還是抗氧化劑,常喝紅葡萄酒的人不得心臟病。第二它可以幫助防止心臟的突然停搏,我們叫猝停。大家知道,什麼情況下心臟可以停搏,第一原來有心臟病的,第二有高血壓的,第三跟食物有關係。

什麼食物呢?過大、過硬、過粘、過熱的食物可以使心臟停搏,血脂高可以使心臟停搏。血脂高的危險在哪裡呢?心臟會突然停搏。

有一個廿歲的小夥子,他抽出來的血是泥狀的,非常危險。我們問他,他說吃得太好了。不是你吃得太好,而是吃得太不合理了。我們有個病例,一個人在街上買了個大年糕,又硬、又粘、又熱,跑回家一進門就讓老太太快點吃,別涼了,老太太剛吃幾口就咽氣了。他背著老太太往醫院跑,到醫院我們問他怎麼回事,他說剛給老太太年糕吃的。這不屬於無知是什麼?沒搶救過來。老太太在家呆得好好的,沒事吃什麼年糕呀,吃完年糕心臟停搏了。現在國際上一再強調,過大、過硬、過粘、過熱就會使心臟停搏。

所以有錢的喝紅葡萄酒,沒錢的吃葡萄不吐葡萄皮一樣保健。

關於早上鍛練(就是做運動)的問題,在中國很多人就不清楚。我從國外回來,看到很多老頭、老太太早上五六點背著寶劍就出來了。到了晚上,中國老頭、老太太都看不到了,都在家看電視呢。為什麼兩個國家差別怎麼大?這是他們不明白,不能怨老人,沒人跟他們講。早上鍛練很危險,早上起來,人的生物鐘規律是體溫高、血壓高,而且腎上腺素比晚上高出 4 倍,如果你激烈運動,就很容易出事,容易出現心臟停搏。我們不反對早上散步、做體操、打太極拳、練氣功。這是無可非議的。但是如果中老年人早上激烈運動,搞長跑,爬香山,有百害無一利,而且死亡率是很高的。你不長跑可能死不了,不爬山可能死不了,這叫死於無知,結果是自己害了自己。

人體需要弱鹼。什麼是弱鹼?蔬菜、水果。凡是發達國家,凡是健康國家都是蔬菜、水果消耗最大。你不會保健,就會點菜,沒用。

再說飲食的第二個問題。大家知道,亞洲金字塔最好。什麼叫金字塔?穀類、豆類、菜類。這穀、豆、菜非常好,在舊金山開會時好多外國醫生提出來了,說,不對呀,中國人已經不吃穀、豆、菜了,已經吃起我們的漢堡包來了。據我掌握的情況,人家為什麼叫它垃圾食品,就是因為它是一種偏激食品,後果是上下一般粗,跟行李捲一樣。人家不吃,因為吃了還要去減肥。咱們不知道,天天麥當勞,尤其第二代簡直沒有麥當勞就活不了啦。我們應該知道它是偏激食品,不符合我們的飲食習慣。

穀類,人家在國際會議上從來不提大米、白麵,也不提麥當勞。穀類裏第一提的是老玉米(就是玉米或叫玉蜀黍),說是“黃金作物”。老玉米的來歷,美國醫學會作了個普查,發現原始的美國人、印第安人沒一個高血壓,沒一個動脈硬化。原來是吃老玉米吃的。後來發現老玉米裏含有大量的卵磷脂、亞油酸、穀物醇、VE,所以不發生高血壓和動脈硬化。從此以後,美國就改了,美洲、非洲、歐洲、日本、香港、中國的廣州,早上都吃玉米羹了。現在許多人吃卵磷脂幹嘛?就是希望不得動脈硬化。但是他不知道老玉米裏含得最多,不用多花錢。這次普查以後,我馬上改正了,在美國我堅持 6 年了,每天喝玉米粥。我今年七十多歲了,體力充沛、精神飽滿,嗓音洪亮、底氣十足,而且臉上沒有皺紋。什麼原因?喝玉米粥喝的,信不信由你。你喝你的牛奶,我喝我的玉米粥,咱們看誰活得長。

十藥九毒,沒聽說拿藥能保健的,秦始皇沒辦到,漢武帝沒辦到,你也辦不到。

但是我要聲明:我不是反對吃藥,反對吃藥的是李洪志。我反對亂吃藥,我主張吃藥“短、平、快”。短時間吃藥,吃平安藥,快速停藥。

下面講“穀、豆、菜”中的“豆”。現在衛生部已經提出來“大豆行動計劃”,內容是“一把蔬菜一把豆,一個雞蛋加點肉”。

一兩大豆的蛋白等於二兩瘦肉,等於三兩雞蛋,等於四兩大米,你說應該吃什麼好?現在國際上都知道了。美國把每年的8月15日定為全國的“豆腐節”,我們沒有豆腐節。他們不缺優質蛋白,他們認為大豆是營養之花,豆中之王。大豆中起碼有 5 種抗癌物質,特別是飴黃酮,它能預防、治療乳腺癌,但只在大豆中才有。牛奶好還是豆漿好?聯合國國際會議上說,牛奶裏含的是乳糖,而全世界有三分之二的人不吸收乳糖,在亞洲黃種人中有 70 % 不吸收乳糖,我們是黃種人。有人牛奶是喝了,但並沒有吸收多少。對牛奶吸收量最大的是白種人。豆漿有什麼優點?豆漿裏含的是寡糖,它百分之百吸收。而且豆漿裏還含有鉀、鈣、鎂等,鈣比牛奶含量多。牛奶裏沒有抗癌物質,而豆漿裏有 5 種抗癌物質。

下面談“穀、豆、菜”中的“菜”。國際會議上第一個提的菜是胡蘿蔔。

為什麼提胡蘿蔔?我國本草綱目裏寫的是養眼蔬菜。晚上看不到東西,特別是夜盲症,吃了就好。它保護粘膜的,長期吃胡蘿蔔不容易得感冒。美國人認為胡蘿蔔是美容菜,養頭髮、養皮膚、養粘膜。常吃胡蘿蔔的人確實從裏往外美容。這美容概念應該是內外和諧,我們好多女孩子上當了,她抹了化妝品還好看點,一卸裝比原來還難看。第一,它養粘膜,不容易感冒;第二,它健美;第三,它有點抗癌作用,而且對眼睛特別好。胡蘿蔔還不怕高溫,多高溫度營養也不受損失。國際會議上還提到蕃茄,就是西紅柿。在美國,幾乎每個家庭都種蕃茄、吃蕃茄,目的是不得癌症。這是剛剛五六年前才知道的。吃西紅柿不得癌症,你知道嗎?不得子宮癌、卵巢癌、胰腺癌、膀胱癌、前列腺癌。這這西紅柿不是隨便吃的,我問大家,西紅柿怎麼吃?有人說,那還不簡單,洗洗就生吃吧。還有人切片放白糖,再喝點啤酒。如果是這麼吃的,我告訴你,白吃了!不抗癌。西紅柿裏面有個東西叫蕃茄素,它和蛋白質結合在一塊,周圍有纖維素包裹,很難出來。所以必須加溫,加溫到一定程度才出來。我告訴大家,西紅柿炒雞蛋最值錢了。還有蕃茄湯,或西紅柿雞蛋湯也是好的。生吃西蕃茄不抗癌,請大家注意。

還有大蒜。大蒜是抗癌之王。我剛一說大蒜怎麼吃,有人就說:那玩意得加溫吃。你怎什麼都加溫?我告訴大家,大蒜加溫等於零!告訴大家,原來是必須先把它切成片,一片一片的薄片放在空氣裡 15 分鐘,它跟氧氣結合以後產生大蒜素。大蒜本身不抗癌,大蒜素才抗癌,而且是抗癌之王。如果不按我的方法,那是白吃了。大蒜有味不用怕,吃點山楂,嚼點花生米,再吃點好茶葉就沒味了。國外每禮拜都吃的,我們為什麼不吃呀!

下面講黑木耳。黑木耳有什麼作用?現在一到過年時心肌梗死一個挨一個,年齡越來越小,已經到卅歲了。為什麼過年時多?兩個原因,一個是高凝體質血稠,就是脂肪高。大家記住,血稠的人叫高凝體質。高凝體質的人加上高凝食物,所以過年時心肌梗死的人特別多,年齡不限。心肌梗死雖然無法治,但完全可以預防。有的大夫告訴你吃阿司匹林,為什麼?可以使血不粘稠,不得心肌梗死。但後果是什麼,吃阿司匹林的後果是眼底出血,現在很多人眼底出血。我勸大家不要吃阿司匹林了。現在歐洲已經不吃阿司匹林了,吃什麼?吃黑木耳。黑木耳有兩個作用,其中一個是使血不粘稠。什麼樣的人是高凝體質?答案是矮、粗、胖的人,特別是更年期的女同胞。而且血型AB的人更容易高凝血稠。

下面談談花粉。雷根總統曾經一次被槍傷,還得了一次惡性腫瘤,他那麼大歲數,現在還活著,只是得了老年性癡呆症。是花粉在他身上起了很大作用。現在歐洲、美洲都流行起花粉來了。我回國後一查歷史,原來我們很早就有。武則天就吃花粉,慈禧太后也吃花粉。古代就有了,但我們忽略了它。大家不要在街上買花粉,街上賣的花粉有硬殼,沒有破壁。破壁要有高科技處理。第二,花粉是野生的,容易污染,要消毒。第三,它是蛋白質,必須脫敏。花粉必須具備這三條才能用:處理、消毒、脫敏。花粉在日本用得最厲害,不管多大年紀的人都用它美容。法國的模特兒沒一人不用它。有一回,我一個月時間每天晚上起夜三次,我一看不好,就吃花粉,一個月就恢復正常了。文獻記載,花粉治癒率 97 %。如用花粉治不好,藥也解決不了,最後腎功能衰竭,尿血,然後腎腫瘤。所以要早點治而不要等到腎功能衰竭。還有一個胃腸道紊亂,女同胞多有習慣性便祕,很多人吃瀉藥而很容易得直腸癌、結腸癌。花粉有個名字叫腸道員警,吃了花粉以後,員警可以維持腸道秩序。第三它健美,維持體型。花粉的三大作用不可忽略。

國際上調查了,全世界最有名的長壽地區在日本,日本的長壽地區在海邊,而海邊壽命最長的是吃魚的地方。特別要吃小魚、小蝦,特別要吃全魚(連頭帶尾),因為有活性物質,而且活性物質在小魚、小蝦的頭部和腹部。看你會不會買魚,要買就買小魚小蝦,而且吃全魚全蝦,這有大學問,不是買魚越大越好。還有個吃的原則,吃東西要掌握量,不是越多越好。國際上有規定的,要吃七成飽,一輩子不得胃病,吃八成飽最多了,若吃十成飽,那二成沒有用,是廢物。

物質平衡有個規律,我簡單介紹一下。初生到 5 個月嬰兒吃母乳最好,超過 5 個月母乳也不行了,需要 42 種以上的食品。人到老年就更難了。幸虧有法國一個醫生叫寇里門特,他到非洲去旅遊時看到非洲大澤湖地人比我們健康長壽。他們吃什麼?吃海藻,把它曬乾了包包子吃,然後喝海藻湯。醫生拿到巴黎一實驗,原來是海藻,而且是螺旋狀的,起名叫螺旋藻。這螺旋藻是 1962 年發現的,這一發現轟動了全世界。為什麼?它 1 克等於 1000 克各種蔬菜的綜合。很多年後發現這東西特別好,營養特別豐富,最全面,營養分佈最平衡,而且是鹼性食品。我告訴大家,日本為什麼是長壽世界冠軍,他們一年消耗 500 噸螺旋藻,他們到中國旅遊每人都帶它。

我們問他們,為什麼帶螺旋藻?他們說,8 克螺旋藻就可以維持生命 40 天。現在的太空食品,沒有帶包子大餅的,全都是螺旋藻。螺旋藻在世界上很馳名了。螺旋藻能補充維生素,而且螺旋藻的最大優點是使糖尿病人不得合併症,能跟正常人飲食一樣。糖尿病人缺少能量,又不能吃糖,螺旋藻是乾糖,攝入乾糖後就有能量了。糖尿病人血糖不穩定,用螺旋藻後可以逐漸停藥,然後逐漸停螺旋藻,最後拿飲食控制。歐洲已經完全戰勝糖尿病,我們也是完全可以的,但必須配合治療。

蘇聯核電站爆炸時,日本專家去搶救,拿的就是螺旋藻,它抗輻射作用很強。現在很多女性做 IT 工作,在電腦前工作的懷孕女子有的 4 個月後流產,有的生出來的嬰兒象青蛙一樣,北京市婦產醫院的報告還有帶尾巴的。輻射帶給人的影響很大。最近報紙登載,哈爾濱去年一年發現了 1500 例白血病,十月份又發現 36 例。初步判定原因是房屋裝修,而且是甲醛。房屋裝修危險很大,國際上規定,裝修後的房屋一定要半年後才能入住。哈爾濱的報告中多是 4 ~ 5 歲的兒童。房屋裝修對老年人、孕婦、兒童危害最大。各位不要低估輻射。螺旋藻提純後,很純很小一點叫藻復康,它能抗輻射。 它經過醫科大學、軍事醫學院鑑定,衛生部批准,現在已經出口了。唯一抗輻射的就是藻復康。所以在電腦前工作的人,可以滴一點藻復康抹上,也可以吃藻復康。它抗輻射、抗腫瘤、抗病毒、抗氧化,而且提高免疫功能。

我再總結一下,輻射對我們影響很大,但有幾個方法可以預防:第一喝綠茶,第二吃青菜、蘿蔔,第三吃螺旋藻,第四吃藻復康。藻復康是最好的。根據自己的經濟條件選擇一種,實在不行就吃青菜蘿蔔。輻射是每個人都會接觸到的。國際上提出了警告:千萬不要把電器放在臥室內。尤其是微波爐對我們危害最大,它 7 米內對我們都有輻射。而且各種電器不要同時開著。又有電視,又有冰箱,又有微波爐,你就在旁邊做菜,得了癌症很冤枉啊!

2. 有氧運動

有一個很原則的經驗,千萬不要早上鍛練(做運動)。建議大家傍晚鍛練。國際上規定了,飯後 45 分鐘再運動。而且老年人的運動散步就可以了,20 分鐘。要想減肥不用這方法,飯前半小時到一小時吃 2 粒到 4 粒螺旋藻,然後食欲就減退了,而且營養不缺。歐洲人減肥全用螺旋藻,國內的少吃多拉不是辦法。
第二是早上起床的時間,國際上規定 6 點,供你參考。下面提到午睡問題。國際上規定了,午睡不午睡不用爭論了。過去日本人不主張午睡,但我們主張若頭一天晚上沒有睡好就應該午睡。午睡時間是午飯後半小時,而且最好睡一個小時,睡的太長對身體沒有好處。不要蓋大被子。 晚上什麼時間睡覺?我們從來不提倡早睡早起。早睡早起的概念要清楚,如果 7 點就睡,12 點就起來瞎折騰,那沒有用。我們主張 10點到 10:30 睡覺,因為國際會議上定的,一小時到一個半小時進入深睡眠是最科學的,這就是 12 點到 3 點,這 3 小時雷打不動,什麼也別幹。這3小時是深睡眠。如果這 3 小時睡好了,第二天起來一定精神煥發。如果你 4 點以後睡覺,那是淺睡眠。會睡和不會睡不一樣。我們主張 12 點至淩晨 3 點雷打不動,而且睡前洗個熱水澡,水溫 40 ~ 50 度,這會使睡眠質量高。你們打牌我不反對,但反對 12 點至淩晨 3 點打牌。深圳夜裏打牌打死四個年輕人,報紙已經報道了。

3. 心理狀態

保健的第三個里程碑是心理狀態問題。如果心理狀態不好,那你白吃白鍛練了,這是很重要的。氣質和血液,你要是一生氣血流得久慢,得腫瘤還不知道什麼原因。生氣容易得腫瘤,全世界都知道。史丹福大學做了個很有名的實驗,拿鼻管擱在鼻子上讓你喘氣,然後再拿鼻管放在雪地裏十分鐘。如果冰雪不改變顏色,說明你心平氣和;如果冰雪變白了,說明你很內疚;如果冰雪變紫了,說明你很生氣。把那紫色的冰雪抽出 1 ~ 2 毫升給小老鼠打上,1 ~ 2 分鐘後小老鼠就死了。而且紫色冰雪的成分都研究出來了。所以生氣容易得腫瘤,這是個很嚴重的問題。

“誰在人前不講人,誰人背後無人講 ”。忍一時風平浪靜,退一步海闊天空。忍耐不是目的,是策略。但一般人做不到,剛說一句就暴跳如雷。小不忍則亂大謀呀。歐洲有個博學經典:難能之理宜停,難處之人宜厚,難處之事宜緩,難成之功宜智。四句中第一句的意思是,很難的道理先不要講。哲理很深,很有用。三國演義裏諸葛亮三氣周瑜,楞把周瑜氣死了。你說賴周瑜還是賴諸葛亮?結論是賴周瑜,他氣量太小。生氣對人危害很大。

現在國際上有個最新說法,所有動物都沒有笑的功能,只有人類有這個功能。但人類還不好好利用它。有人說猴子會笑,大象會笑,你們見過嗎?但真見到會哭的,宰牛時牛會流眼淚。古代說:笑一笑,十年少。不是指年齡,是指心態。笑口常開,健康常在。笑的作用非常大,我們每個人都有這本能,為什麼不笑呢?美國成立了微笑俱樂部,笑成了健康的標志。哈哈一笑,皺紋沒了。

國際會議上已經給我們提出警告了,讓我們喝綠茶,吃大豆,睡好覺,勤運動,常歡笑。希望每個人都要注意平衡飲食、有氧運動,而且注意你的心理狀態,該哭時哭,該笑時笑。我相信我們一定能越過 73 歲,闖過 84 歲,90, 100 歲一定會健在。

2009年1月20日 星期二

[Ericsson]CEO letter January 21, 2009

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
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Dear colleagues,

Today we announce our result for the fourth quarter and full year 2008. We make this announcement ahead of time again since our result is significantly higher than market expectations. We have therefore agreed with the stock exchange to make the announcement today.

We can look back at a solid performance in 2008. Sales grew by 11 %, our margins have steadily improved and our financial position remains strong. This is obviously the result of tremendous work done by everybody in the company and I would like to take the opportunity to say thank you to all of you.

So far, we have seen only limited effects in our industry from the global financial crisis, except from the handset market that is seriously affected. In general the operators have healthy financial positions, networks are fairly loaded and there is a strong traffic growth. It would, however, be unreasonable to believe that we will remain unaffected also in 2009. We see a lot of uncertainties in consumer spend and how operators will act.

As you all know, we started to save costs one year ago and we have actually exceeded our cost saving target for the year, with savings of SEK 6.5 billion launched already. We stand strong and we have the opportunity to come out of this turmoil even stronger than we were going into it, while many of our competitors are struggling. But that means that we have to do even more.

Therefore we will continue with cost savings also this year, targeting savings of 10 BSEK. We will achieve this by leveraging synergies between our different technologies and by taking advantage of opportunities in the transformation to all-IP. We will also reduce the number of software platforms and increase the re-use of hardware. In addition, we will consolidate our activities to fewer sites and move certain activities to low-cost countries. This will also result in staff reduction of some 5,000 people globally.

The savings activities will result in a more efficient way of working and we should therefore be able to achieve these savings while keeping our strategy and unique capabilities intact.

Remember what we have said so many times before. We need strong profitability in order to control our own destiny. We have improved our margins in 2008 and we have to relentlessly continue to perfect our performance while staying close to our customers.

These are tough times, but in tough times the strong can get stronger. I know that we have what it takes to take advantage of the current situation to further extend our leadership and outperform competition.

Best regards,

Carl-Henric Svanberg

President and CEO


[MLB]Bryan Anderson (CF)

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090116&content_id=3747222&vkey=news_cws&fext=.jsp&c_id=cws

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CHICAGO -- Brian Anderson looks at the White Sox roster in its current form and realizes there's a center-field job there to be won for the upcoming 2009 season.

His name consistently has been mentioned by general manager Ken Williams and manager Ozzie Guillen during the past few months to be one of those in the mix for this particular everyday responsibility. But Anderson doesn't have to be one of the men running the team to realize his chances to start aren't quite as likely as they would seem.

The White Sox don't currently have a veteran leadoff hitter in their projected lineup, not necessarily a necessity, but certainly more than a luxury in Guillen's desired attack. With a healthy Jerry Owens fitting these job requirements, the fleet-footed leadoff hitter literally appears to have the leg up on both Anderson and DeWayne Wise in rounding out the White Sox outfield.

That dynamic leaves a calm and collected Anderson wondering if he truly will get a fair shot to capture this position.

"I don't really know what 'fair shot' means," Anderson told MLB.com, taking a break from a session during his second consecutive offseason working out at Fitness Quest 10, with Todd Durkin and his staff, in San Diego. "You can't look it up in the dictionary, and 'fair shot' actually is kind of a cliché.

"Going into Spring Training, we don't have a leadoff hitter and Jerry is considered to be a leadoff hitter. It's math, not magic. It's going to be tough for me, going in [to Spring Training] and knowing that if I play clearly above the rest, my only reward is a platoon situation. It's not something I want."

Before this tale continues, it should be noted that Anderson did not express this sentiment out of anger. He did not pound his fist and demand a trade or talk about mistreatment from the White Sox.

Simply put, Anderson has changed since a similar conversation with MLB.com early last offseason, during which his frustration manifested itself in more caustic terms. Anderson entered Spring Training in 2008 as a long shot to even make the team, but given the at-bats by Guillen during Cactus League action, Anderson earned one of the final roster spots.

By the time the 2008 season came to a close, Anderson had become an everyday player -- in usually two or three innings at a time -- as a defensive replacement for Ken Griffey, Jr. His attitude was better. There was an understanding of his role, and although Anderson hit .232 with eight home runs and 26 RBIs over 181 at-bats, his offensive approach was greatly improved from his .192 showing during the first half of 2006 -- his last starting chance.

"Believe me, I agree with the whole idea in sports of 'What have you done for me lately?'" Anderson said. "I mock myself every chance I can from what happened at the start of 2006. It was sad, and a dude off the street could have done as well as I did at the beginning.

"Then again, you shouldn't hold against someone something that happened three years ago in half of a season. You can't hold a negative over someone's head three years down the road."

Aside from what Anderson believes, does his starting argument actually make sense in the context of the White Sox roster?

Owens certainly would fall into the category of a prototype leadoff hitter, and by Williams' account, he was acquired in February 2005, to eventually replace Scott Podsednik. Owens looked on track to assume this position entering Spring Training during 2008, until a groin injury cut short his playing time in Arizona.

Guillen has said that he doesn't need a Rickey Henderson or Vince Coleman-type player at the top of the order. He values on-base percentage as much as flat-out speed and stolen-base potential.

If Anderson truly beats out Owens in Glendale, Ariz., and Williams makes no other moves in regard to the top of the order, the only other logical leadoff option would be the winner of the second base battle between Brent Lillibridge and Chris Getz. Using one of those two, though, would place a slight extra burden upon a rookie.

Moving Anderson back into regular action would add further power supply to the offense, with Anderson's potential to hit 20-to-25 home runs over 500 at-bats. Anderson's greatest asset is defense, with his 98-game errorless streak and overall capabilities matching up with even the American League's most decorated Gold Glove-winning outfielders. White Sox fans vividly remember Anderson's flat out dive and sprawling catch of Alexi Casilla's sinking liner to end the one-game playoff against the Twins and clinch the AL Central title.

Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton and Bobby Jenks stand out as the only true strikeout pitchers on the White Sox staff, meaning most White Sox pitchers make the opposition put the ball in play and places defense at a premium. That strong pitching, strong defense and just enough hitting theory equaled a World Series title in 2005.

Of course, the White Sox also had Podsednik creating havoc for much of the 2005 campaign. Anderson appreciates the value held by Owens and not only considers him a good friend but also a high-quality performer. Anderson simply is looking for that elusive fair chance, whether it's with the White Sox or somewhere else.

"My goal is to stick with the team, be loyal and help out in any way I can, but I know Kenny Williams and Ozzie understand," Anderson said. "That might mean I have to go to another team to start fresh. I wouldn't be mad about that.

"Nothing against guys who back up or spot start. If that's my role with the White Sox, I'm ready to do it again. But at 26 or 27, I'm just not ready to be a role player or come off the bench. Nobody is ready to do that at my age."

[MLB]

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://www.fantasypros911.com/has-elvis-andrus-become-a-sleeper-option.html

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The rumors are running rampant, with Michael Young agreeing to play 3B for the Rangers this season, as to who the Rangers will use as the SS. Will they sign a veteran to fill the role? Will they use someone else on the roster? Will the team turn the job over to Elvis Andrus, a player considered to be one of the best infield prospects in all of baseball?

He’s better known for his abilities in the field, despite a load of errors last season, so should fantasy owners be drooling over his potential to help or should they simply pass on the 20-year old (he turns 21 in August) if he is indeed given the job? There is no doubting his blazing speed, having stolen 54 bases last season at Double-A following a 2007 where he stole a total of 40 bases across two levels of Single-A.

The problem is, his benefits for owners may stop right there. He has just 12 career HR in the minor leagues in 1,410 AB. It’s not like he’s piling up the doubles with the power being projected down the line. He has just 66 career two-baggers, so don’t look for that to come around any time soon, if ever.

He batted just .295 last season, and that came with a BABIP of .357. With his speed it certainly is not out of the question that he can maintain a higher number there, as long as he can keep the ball on the ground. If he starts putting the ball in the air, he’s going to get himself into a lot of trouble.

It would not be surprising to see him struggle, especially considering the jump he is asked to make. Don’t expect a .300 average, with .250-.260 a very realistic number. I’d love to say that he’s going to hit .280 or .290, but I can’t do it, not given the numbers he posted last season.

Carlos Gomez and his .258 average with 33 SB seems like the perfect comparison. Andrus doesn’t walk an excessive amount (7.3% BB% last season), much like Gomez. He strikes out a bit more then you’d like for a player like him (18.9% K% last season), much like Gomez. He has little to no power, much like Gomez.

I like Andrus' potential just as much as anyone, but 2009 is going to be a learning process, a chance for him to grow. I wouldn't recommend taking the gamble on him unless you are in need of speed because that's about all he's likely to offer

[Ericsson]低價是電信設備商勝出聯通WCDMA招標的關鍵

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:


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[文章]

中國聯通WCDMA設備招標,中興暫獲第一。業內人士指出,從以往其它兩家電信運營商招標經驗看,在技術差別不大情況下,低價將是競標勝出的關鍵因素。設備商以低價打開市場,憑借運營商大規模採購累積利潤。

中國聯通的WCDMA設備商務招標會在近日舉行。此次招標會共包括30個省區市,參與競標的主要廠商包括愛立信、華為、諾基亞西門子、阿爾卡特朗訊和中興“五雄”。中國聯通首先開始最關鍵的WCDMA無線設備的商務招標,核心網稍後開始。聯通採取一次招標、分批次唱標的方法,使設備商競爭更趨激烈。

競標會最終開出13個省市區的競標結果,在WCDMA上最具備優勢的中外雙雄華為和愛立信在第一批8個省級區域的競爭中顆粒無收,中興則打入全部8個省級市場。在第二批的競爭中,中興又拿下兩個區域,暫時名列第一。

申銀萬國通信行業分析師方璐認為,低價是電信設備商勝出聯通WCDMA的關鍵。從08年中國電信CDMA和中國移動TD-SCDMA的招標經驗看,價格最低者均中標占有率最高。如CDMA招標中,華為積極進攻,報價最低,中標占有率26%;TD-SCDMA招標中,大唐報價最低,目前總占有率37%。

中興現有WCDMA網路的部署規模稍遜愛立信、華為和諾基亞西門子,市場普遍預期其在招標過程中占有率會次於這三家,占有率不超過15%,但中興為實現占有率上的突破,率先報出低於競爭對手的價格。據了解,招標會上,一開始佔據優勢的愛立信和華為憑借技術的領先地位,雙雙報出高價,約每載扇6萬至7萬,而中興3.6萬左右,巨大的價格差異讓希望降低成本的聯通產生了傾斜。方璐預計中興此次斬獲可能超出15%的市場最高預期。對於中興,市場占有率應比價格更重要,因WCDMA業務是公司短板,若在中國這個全球最大的WCDMA市場實現突破,必會對其在海外WCDMA市場佈局構成強有力支撐。

對電信設備商如何權衡低價格和低利潤之間的關係,銀河證券通信行業分析師王國平指出,電信設備商在招標過程中爆出的超低價,並不能使其在短期內獲利,但因電信運營商採購量較大,設備商主要靠走量,一旦規模效應體現出來,利潤自然得以累積。所以,盈利之前,關鍵就要獲得市場占有率,至此也不難解釋為何設備商價格戰競爭白熱化了。

專家預測,隨著設備供應商間為爭奪3G地盤的競爭越加激烈,國內設備商在2至3年內從3G建設中獲利已不大可能。世華財訊分析師認為,WCDMA是幾個3G標準中技術最成熟,故這幾大設備商間的差別不大。招標會綜合考慮現有格局、技術、價格、服務、用戶關係等等,但在技術差別不大的情況下,價格就成為十分關鍵的因素。

(鄧擎 撰稿)

[Finance]克魯曼專欄》新巫毒經濟登場 小心

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://www.wretch.cc/blog/chunkaiw/17954263
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[文章]

相信減稅有奇效的巫毒經濟學已褪流行,且被排除在文明論述之外。供給面學說的狂熱信徒只剩怪胎、假內行和共和黨人。

但近來新聞報導顯示許多動見觀瞻的人,包括聯邦準備理事會官員、金管官員,即將上任的歐巴馬政府官員可能也在內,已成為一種新巫毒的忠實信徒,相信舉行複雜的金融儀式,就能讓已經不行的行庫起死回生。

要解釋這碼事,我來說說一家虛構銀行的處境,我稱為「高譚集團」或簡稱高譚(按:Gotham是英格蘭傳說和童話中的愚人村) 。

帳面上,高譚有2兆美元資產和1.9兆美元負債,它的淨值是1000 億美元。但它的資產有很大部分,比如說房貸抵押債券和其他毒資產值4000億美元,假使這家銀行設法出售這些資產,可能賣不了2000 億美元。

所以高譚是家「僵屍銀行」,仍在營運,但實質上已破產。它的股票並非完全一文不值,它市值還有200億美元,但全然建立在政府會紓困解救其股東的希望上。

為何政府要對高譚紓困?因為它是金融體系的核心要角。各界任由雷曼公司倒閉後,金融市場凍結,有好幾星期全球經濟在崩垮邊緣搖搖欲墜。由於我們不希望舊事重演,因此高譚一定得繼續發揮作用。但怎樣才能讓它繼續發揮作用?

這個嘛,政府可以給高譚幾千億美元,就足以恢復其償付能力。但這當然是給高譚現在的股東送大禮,也等於鼓勵他們日後拚命不顧風險。即使如此,這分大禮的可能性讓高譚現在的股價獲得支撐。

比較好的方法是拿出政府在1980年代末期處理僵屍存款、貸款的方法:接管已無生意的銀行,解散股東。接下來政府把銀行壞帳轉移給特殊機構「資產清理信託公司」,政府清償足夠的銀行債務,讓銀行有償付能力,再把整頓過的銀行賣給新的所有人。

然而目前各方意見顯示,這兩種方式政策制定者都無意採用。據報導,他們傾向妥協,即把毒資產從民營行庫的資產負債表移到類似資產清理信託公司的公有「壞帳行庫」或「整合銀行」,但不先接管銀行。

美國聯邦存款保險公司董事長拜爾女士最近嘗試說明這種方法如何發揮功效:「整合銀行會以合理價格買下資產。」但何謂「合理價格」?

就我舉的例子,高譚集團沒有償付能力,因為其帳面上的4000億美元毒資產實際只值2000億美元。政府買下毒資產使高譚恢復償付能力的唯一途徑是支付比私人買家願意出的價高得多。

現在也許私人買家不願支付有毒資產的實際價值:拜爾女士說:「我們目前尚未就某些這類資產種類訂定合理價格。」但政府該聲稱比市場更清楚毒資產值多少錢嗎?還有,真的可能付「合理價格」(不管這是什麼意思)就足以讓高譚恢復償付能力嗎?

我懷疑可能政策制定者正準備試圖放長線釣大魚:政策看似清理了存款和貸款,但實際上無異犧牲納稅人而送給銀行股東大禮,還裝做以「合理價格」購買毒資產。

為什麼要如此拐彎抹角?答案似乎是華府仍對「國有化」這個字怕的要命。實情是,高譚集團和其同類機構已由國家監護,完全仰賴納稅人支撐,卻沒有人願意承認這個事實並施行明顯的解決方案:儘管暫時卻是明確的政府接管。因此,如同我所說,大行其道的新巫毒宣稱複雜的金融儀式可讓死氣沉沉的銀行回春。

不幸的是,耽溺迷信的代價可能很高。希望我這想法是錯的,但我懷疑納稅人又被坑了一次,我們將多了一項無法奏效的金融援助計畫。

(作者Paul Krugman是紐約時報專欄作家)

2009年1月19日 星期一

[MLB]Is Pie now worth the risk?


[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=1512
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[文章]

Is Pie now worth the risk?



Felix Pie has been discussed as a top OF prospect for the Chicago Cubs for the past few years. Back in 2004, Baseball America had him pegged as the team’s #2 prospect. In 2003 they had him ranked at #5. There was never any doubting his potential on the field, the question was if he could actually perform up to the hype.

He’s played parts of the past two seasons at the major league level, hitting just .223 over 260 AB. He’s had just 3 HR and 11 SB, a far cry from what everyone had hoped he would develop into, especially since he was expected to be the Cubs everyday CF last season. His struggles certainly forced the Cubs to push him further and further down the depth chart and when Milton Bradley and Joey Gathright signed on the dotted line, he became unnecessary for the team.

In stepped the Baltimore Orioles, who acquired Pie in exchange for Garrett Olsen. The move sets Pie up for what may be his final chance to prove he is an everyday player in the major leagues. Word is that the team will shift Luke Scott to the DH role, allowing Pie to play regularly in the OF.

Will the regular playing time make him worth looking at in deeper formats?

He’ll be 24-years old on Opening Day, so maybe he’ll really put things together, but even the minor league numbers do not fully justify the hype surrounding him. His career high in HR was 15 at Triple A back in 2006, though he did pair that with 33 doubles. Does that bring hope? Normally I’d say yes, but considering it came in the Pacific Coast League, I’m taking it with a grain of salt.

He has some speed, having stolen 32 bases at Single A in 2004, but he was also caught 16 times that season. That is obviously far from a stellar percentage and he has failed to reach 20 SB since then. Pair those two things together and it doesn’t offer much promise of us seeing him run wild in the major leagues.

What about the average? He’s hit well in the minors, consistently being over .280, even at the top levels. I wouldn’t expect the higher numbers (.362 in 229 AB at Triple A in ‘07) to translate to the majors. Not even close. He just hasn’t shown the ability to hit at the Major League level. Last season he had a .358 BABIP, yet managed to hit just .241. That was due to a K% of 34.9%, and while I’d expect that to come down, so will the BABIP. No, I wouldn’t go into the season looking at an average of more then .270.

So, we have an OF’er who is likely not to hit for much power…
Who isn’t likely to steal many bases…
Who may struggle with his average…

That seems like an awful lot of risk, doesn’t it? I can understand watching him, looking to see if maybe things finally do get put together, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. There are much better risks in the OF to take, unless you are in the deepest of keeper leagues. Monitor his progress early on in case he develops into a great waiver wire pick-up, but don’t get your hopes too high.

What do you think? Could Pie develop into a usable OF’er?

[MLB] Notes from Multiple Source

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
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[文章]

Andrew Jones was released by the Dodgers today. Rumor has it that he will re-join the Braves, but nothing is official yet.


Zaun Agrees To Terms With Orioles

Orioles president Andy MacPhail said he expects Zaun to do the "lion's share of the catching" at first, even with top prospect Matt Wieters around.


Tigers Interested In Isringhausen, Lyon


Michael Young Agrees To Play Third

[Life] 面對考驗?

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
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[文章]
From Ted's Blog

熱力不足,不只是在職場工作,一直停在思考的階段,明明有很多事情要連絡,卻一直 pending,這也是自我要學習的。


少了愛,做起事來就不像沖飽的電池,能量源源不絕;
少了 愛,會觀望有沒有人與我同行?如果沒有同行的夥伴,也許 就考慮停下來了....;
少了愛,創意就只是想法,不會有實現的一天,遇到了阻擋,就歸因於『某某人說...怎樣怎樣』,一切的不順利就與自己無關 了...;
少了愛,就沒了『熱』,原來應該熱的場子,就顯得可有可無,反正『做好』跟『做完』結果都一樣(但是帶給人們的感覺,卻是截然不同的 ~ !!)

發現了嗎,原來我是少了愛的人,所以就少了熱力;

2009年1月18日 星期日

[Life]有道理的話 from 放過你自己

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:
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[文章]




過去的事

都已經過去了 再去挖 再去啃 再去鑽 都不會有結果

當然也不可能當作沒有發生過 因為時間不可能從來

每個人都有不完美的地方 因為我們是人

但如果你不願放下過去 死抓著不放硬要把過去的垃圾放到新的一天裡

那麼 永遠都不可能有新的一天 美好的開始

因為你早已經先幫明天作了氣象預報 明天就是會打雷下大雨加上強烈冷氣團

與其讓這些垃圾毀壞你的明天 新的每一天

那不如就勇敢站起來 走出這些灰燼

拒絕讓這些灰燼污染你的明天 不要再回頭看了

勇敢的站起來 你會發現 其實你只是在20公分高的水裡自己嚇自己

因為你值得的 不是這些 而是更多更豐盛美好的一切

學習曬太陽 讓自己脫離陰暗發霉的角落

你會發現 一切都開始不一樣 不一樣的氛圍製造出不一樣的生命

2009年1月17日 星期六

[Ericsson]今年科技開支 縮減3%

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://www.worldjournal.com/wj-tc-news.php?nt_seq_id=1833703

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[文章]

佛瑞斯特預計 明年就會回升9% 美元強勢助長下滑
【財經新聞組紐約報導】據佛瑞斯特研究公司(Forrester)最新報告顯示,2009年對於科技企業來說,是一個坎坷的年份。預計全球商業以及政府對於電腦、軟體以及通訊產品,還有資訊服務的開支將減少3%。

這也是科技行業經歷2001至2002連續2年科技開支縮減6%之後,首次出現全球性的市場下滑。不過佛瑞斯特並不認為本次下滑將持續相同時間,他們認為到2010年科技開支將回升9%。

在 經濟衰退之外,美元的強勢也是今年全行業下滑的動因之一。由於美元在2008年的弱勢,激發了科技行業在2008年的銷售增長,相反的,目前逐步走強的美 元,會減少今年的市場需求。在匯率變動中,歐洲的科技開支比率變化最為劇烈,以美元計價的話,歐洲的科技採購將在2009年下滑7%,但以歐元計價的採購 卻會增長1%。

他們預計以歐元報價的科技企業,包括歐科-朗訊(Alcatel-Lucent)、易利信(Ericsson)、SAP、諾基亞(Nokia)以及西門子(Siemens),將從弱勢歐元中受惠。

在全行業不景氣狀況下,佛瑞斯特也預測部分產品還會逆勢上揚。該公司副總裁表示,軟體採購會比其他的產品好一些,當然所有的供應商都會面臨嚴峻挑戰,情況會在2009年底或者2010年初,出現好轉。

該公司預計,軟體行業銷售將依舊維持在2008年的3880億元,電腦市場將下滑4%,降至4340億元,其中包括個人電腦,伺服器以及儲存設備等。

在 通訊產品市場,該公司預測,包括路由器、交換機以及通訊設備等,會下滑3%,降至3530億元。而資訊科技的服務以及外包市場,也會下降3%,降至 4840億元。佛瑞斯特認為,美元的強勢也不會維持多久,以後還會成為歐元強勢。預計到2010年,以美元計算的科技開支將回升9%。

2009年1月16日 星期五

[MLB]Skimming the Closer Pool: AL West

[心得]


[出處] 以下文章引用自:

http://www.fantasypros911.com/skimming-the-closer-pool-al-west.html

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[文章]

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

  • The Incumbent: Brian Fuentes
  • Likelihood to hold job:
  • How they did last year: 1-5, 2.73 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 30 SV, 82 K/22 BB

    Prior to last season, Fuentes stock could not have been any lower. A combination of injury and ineffectiveness forced Fuentes out of the job at the end of June, 2007. After blowing four straight saves that month, Fuentes was replaced by Manuel Corpas. Last season was a role reversal, in that Corpas struggled at the end of April and Fuentes retook the job. Fuentes had a 2.24 FIP and allowed a .317 BABIP, which suggest his numbers were as good as they appear and possibly even better. Fuentes only blew four saves in 34 chances last year, significantly improved from the seven in 27 chances in 2007.
  • What to expect this year: Fuentes moves out of Coors Field and into the American League by signing with the Angels this month. Fuentes finds himself in a pretty good situation. Last year, a lot of Francisco Rodriguez critics said he was good but not great, and was more or less, in a great situation. Well, to a degree, they were right. Without analyzing K-Rod (next week we will look at the NL East), he played for a team that gave him 69 save chances, en route to setting the single-season saves record. Expect the same this year for Fuentes—a lot of opportunities. For one, the Angels play in a weak division, and they also do not blow teams out. Most of the Angels wins last year were tight, one or two run games—hence the 69 save opportunities. This year factor in an aging Vladimir Guerrero, minus Mark Teixeira and Garrett Anderson, and the Angels offense is arguably one of the worst in the AL. But they know how to win and again, this division is easily the worst in the American League. So Fuentes, who is coming off a bounce back season after a rough 2007, is in a good position this year. Fuentes is quickly moving up in mock drafts and closer rankings. It is conceivable to expect an ERA around 3.25 with 80 strikeouts and maybe for the first time in his career, 40 saves.
  • In the ‘Pen: Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields

    Jose Arredondo: Once K-Rod signed elsewhere, Arredondo figured to be the top choice from within to take over as closer. But, going after, and signing, Fuentes showed that the Angels were not ready to hand Arredondo the keys to the car—just yet at least. A rookie last year, Arredondo was very impressive. He finished 10-2 with a 1.62 ERA and 55 strikeouts. In Anaheim, they typically stick with their closer through his struggles, so Fuentes should have some job security if he blows back-to-back saves. But, if he were to get hurt, Arredondo should get the ball in the ninth—unless Scioscia decides to share duties.

    Scot Shields: As consistent of a middle reliever you can find. In his eight seasons with the Angels, he has only twice posted an ERA over 3.00. Shields has picked up a handful of saves almost every season and has 20 total in his career.

Oakland Athletics

  • The Incumbent: Brad Ziegler
  • Likelihood to hold job:
  • How they did last year: 3-0, 1.06 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 11 SV, 30 K/22 BB

    Ziegler began his career in record-setting fashion by tossing 39 1/3 scoreless innings. Ziegler uses a submarine delivery and deceptive angles to fool hitters, but does not have overpowering stuff. One of five Oakland pitchers to record a save, Ziegler finished the season as their main closer and converted 11 of 13 save opportunities. But, as good as he was, there was reason for concern. Ziegler had a below average 1.36 K/BB rate and a weak 4.53 K/9 rate. In addition, Ziegler’s best statistic was ERA, which might have been skewed considering the large disparity between his FIP and his actual ERA. Ziegler had a 3.72 FIP, which is nearly four times as much as his ERA. Red flag, anyone?
  • What to expect this year: Ziegler is listed as the incumbent, because quite frankly, he finished last season as their ninth inning guy. However, Oakland manager Bob Geren has not committed to anyone yet. There is also the potential for the ultimate fantasy nightmare. And that’s shared duties, based on matchups. As aforementioned, Ziegler does not have overpowering stuff. Towards the end of the last year, hitters started figuring out his style, and his fastball was exposed for what it was—less than average. If Ziegler wins the job outright in Spring Training, it is hard to place much trust in him. He would be worth an end game pick, but Opening Day is a ways away, and there is a guy in the pen who has electric stuff.
  • In the ‘Pen: Joey Devine, Santiago Casilla

    Joey Devine: If you weren’t sure who “that guy” was above, Devine has lights out stuff and can be downright unhittable at times. Devine posted a 0.59 ERA, which led the league and was an all-time low for a pitcher with at least 40 innings of work. Devine struck out 49 in 45 2/3 innings, good for a 9.66 K/9 rate. In the minors, Devine’s career K/9 was 13.18. He is an injury concern though, missing 54 games last year with a strained elbow—likely due to his sidearm motion. As long as he can stay healthy, Devine fits the bill for the closer makeup. Look for him to win the job out of Spring Training.

    Santiago Casilla: A heralded setup man last year, Casilla will most likely assume the same role this season. He struck out 43 in 50 1/3 innings with an ERA of 3.93. If Ziegler and Devine both get hurt, which is possible with their histories (Ziegler, head; Devine, elbow), Casilla has the potential to handle the duties.

Seattle Mariners

  • The Incumbent: Tyler Walker
  • Likelihood to hold job:
  • How they did last year: 5-8, 4.56 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 0 SV, 49 K/21 BB

    This situation might be the worst in both leagues. The incumbent could have been filled with most of the candidates listed below in the ‘pen. If Oakland’s closer seat is hot, this one is red hot. Instead of talking about Walker last year, where he was not a closer, let’s skip down to this year for all of the candidates.
  • What to expect this year: Walker has three months of experience as a closer back in 2005 with the Giants, and also a brief stint with the Rays in 2006. In total, he has 34 career saves. We might have to get Miss Cleo on the line to try and sort out this mess of a bullpen. At this point of the offseason, anyone can emerge as the leading contender and a closer-by-committee is certainly not out of the question. The best advice is to simply stay away.
  • In the ‘Pen: Miguel Batista, Aaron Heilman, Mark Lowe, Roy Corcoran

    Miguel Batista: Batista leads the candidates with 38 career saves and picked up one last year as a Mariner. He went 4-14 with a putrid 6.26 ERA last year, primarily as a starter. This year the Mariners have no desire for Batista in the rotation, so he is one of the front-runners for the closer role. Batista saved 31 games for the Blue Jays in 2005.

    Aaron Heilman: Heilman would prefer to start, but he might not have a choice. He has nine career saves and some sources say he is actually the leading candidate. But after reading through several different opinions, it seems to vary by person. Heilman had a 5.45 BB/9 rate last season, a dreadful number for someone contending to be a team’s primary closer.

    Mark Lowe: Unlike Heilman, Lowe wants the job. Too bad he did so poorly during his chance last season. Despite managing to pie J.J. Putz in the face, Lowe recorded only one save in five chances during Putz’s absence. Prior to last year, Lowe was coming off arm surgery so it’s possible he was getting back into pitching form. In 2006, Lowe had a 1.93 ERA in 18 2/3 innings. As you can see, he is certainly capable.

    Roy Corcoran: Risky, but at this point, which one of the above guys isn’t? Corcoran saved three games during the team’s final month of the season. He actually had the best numbers last year out of the group with a 3.22 ERA. However, he does not have the quintessential closer makeup. He strikes out a very low rate (4.83 K/9, 1.08 K/BB in ’08) and has a lifetime WHIP of 1.53.

Again, the best thing to do is stay away from this disaster. Maybe in March or April, we will have a better idea on who to take in the end game.

Texas Rangers

  • The Incumbent: Frank Francisco
  • Likelihood to hold job:
  • How they did last year: 3-5, 3.13 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 5 SV, 83 K/26 BB

    Francisco finally lived up to his potential last season. After years of talk, the only thing people remembered Francisco for was tossing a chair into the crowd and hitting an Athletics fan in the face (here, in case you forgot). Francisco finished strong with four straight saves in as many chances. Francisco’s strikeout numbers were through the roof across the board. He had career bests in total (83), K/9 (11.79), and K/BB (3.19).
  • What to expect this year: Some people expect a lot, while others are not quite sold on Francisco yet. For Rangers fans, it’s easy to remember the confidence people had in C.J. Wilson heading into last season. Wilson saved 12 games and had a 3.03 ERA the year earlier, only to self-destruct on a weekly basis in the ninth inning last year. Francisco has a similar chance to do the same. A lot of Wilson’s problems last year had to do with putting people on base with free passes. Wilson had 5.24 BB/9 rate. In 2007, Francisco had a 5.76 BB/9, but improved to a rate of 3.69 last season. For him to be effective, he needs to control that powerful fastball the way he did last year. Expect Francisco to keep the job, but do it in Brian Wilson fashion—high numbers and a decent save total.
  • In the ‘Pen: C.J. Wilson, Derrick Turnbow

    C.J. Wilson: Well, last season definitely did not go as planned. As said in the paragraph above, Wilson struggled with control. In fact, the last game he pitched in last year was a summary of his season. Wilson walked two, hit a batter, and then served up a grand slam to Richie Sexson of the Yankees. He had closer potential, but I think the confidence in him as a closer is gone.

    Derrick Turnbow: An interesting signing by the Rangers of late adds an arm to their bullpen. Another guy with control issues. Turnbow was effective in 2005 for the Brewers, saving 39 of 43 chances. But, lost his job the next year by blowing eight saves and an ERA of 6.87. It’s possible, actually very possible, that 2005 was an aberration. His lifetime numbers do not indicate he is the kind of pitcher he was in 2005 (1.74 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.67 K/BB). Turnbow might factor into their bullpen mix, but it would be a long shot for him to take this job at any point this season.

Who do you think wins the jobs in Oakland and Seattle? And do you think Frank Francisco, unlike predecessor C.J. Wilson, can last an entire season? Here is some food for thought; do you think it might be the ballpark in Arlington causing Rangers closers to struggle?